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Forecasting Eastern Mediterranean Droughts

Gidon EshelDepartment of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

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Mark A. CaneLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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Brian F. FarrellDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

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Abstract

A dynamically motivated statistical forecasting scheme for eastern Mediterranean winter rainfall is presented. The scheme is based on North Atlantic sea level pressure precursors. The resulting forecasts are robust and statistically significant at ∼13 months lead time, and improve at ∼7 months lead. It is suggested that these forecasts form a foundation for an operational early-warning system for eastern Mediterranean droughts.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Gidon Eshel, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 S. Ellis Ave., Chicago, IL 60637.

Email: geshel@uchicago.edu

Abstract

A dynamically motivated statistical forecasting scheme for eastern Mediterranean winter rainfall is presented. The scheme is based on North Atlantic sea level pressure precursors. The resulting forecasts are robust and statistically significant at ∼13 months lead time, and improve at ∼7 months lead. It is suggested that these forecasts form a foundation for an operational early-warning system for eastern Mediterranean droughts.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Gidon Eshel, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 S. Ellis Ave., Chicago, IL 60637.

Email: geshel@uchicago.edu

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