• Anthes, R. A., 1982: Tropical Cyclones: Their Evolution, Structure, and Effects. Meteor. Monogro., No. 41, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 208 pp.

  • Bister, M., 2001: Effect of peripheral convection on tropical cyclone formation. J. Atmos. Sci, in press.

  • ———, and Emanuel, K., 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys, 65 , 223240.

  • Camp, J. P., 1999: Hurricane maximum intensity: Past and present. M. S. thesis, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, 147 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cione, J. J., , P. G. Black, , and S. H. Houston, 2000: Surface observations in the hurricane environment. Mon. Wea. Rev, 128 , 15501561.

  • DeMaria, M., , and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14 , 326337.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dodge, P., , R. W. Burbee, , and F. D. Marks Jr., 1999: The kinematic structure of a hurricane with sea level pressure less than 900 mb. Mon. Wea. Rev, 127 , 9871004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K., 1986: An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci, 43 , 585604.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——,. 1988a: The maximum potential intensity of hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci, 45 , 11431155.

  • ——,. 1988b: Towards a general theory of hurricanes. Amer. Sci, 76 , 371379.

  • ——,. 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci, 46 , 34313456.

  • ——,. 1991: The theory of hurricanes. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech, 23 , 179196.

  • ——,. 1995a: The behavior of a simple hurricane model using a convective scheme based on subcloud-layer entropy equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci, 52 , 39603968.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——,. 1995b: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci, 52 , 39693976.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——,. 1997: Some aspects of hurricane inner-core dynamics and energetics. J. Atmos. Sci, 54 , 10141026.

  • ——,. 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401 , 665669.

  • ——, Speer, K., , R. Rotunno, , R. Srivastava, , and M. Molina, 1995: Hypercanes: A possible link in global extinction scenarios. J. Geophys. Res, 100 , 13 75513 765.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frank, W. M., 1977: The structure and energetics of the tropical cyclone I. Storm structure. Mon. Wea. Rev, 105 , 11191135.

  • Gray, S., 1994: Theory of mature tropical cyclones: A comparison between Kleinschmidt (1951) and Emanuel (1986). JCMM Rep. 40, 50 pp. [Available from Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology, University of Reading, P.O. Box 240, Reading, Berkshire RG6 2FN, United Kingdom.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guinn, T. A., , and W. H. Schubert, 1993: Hurricane spiral bands. J. Atmos. Sci, 50 , 33803403.

  • Hawkins, H. F., , and D. T. Rubsam, 1968: Hurricane Hilda, 1964. 2. Structure and budgets of the hurricane on October 1, 1964. Mon. Wea. Rev, 96 , 617636.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holland, G. J., 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci, 54 , 25192541.

  • Jordan, C. L., 1958: Mean soundings for the West Indies area. J. Meteor, 15 , 9197.

  • Kleinschmidt, E., 1951: Grundlagen einer theorie der tropischen zyklonen. Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Bioklimatol, A4 , 5372.

  • Knutson, T. R., , and R. E. Tuleya, 1999: Increased intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Climate Dyn, 15 , 503519.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Malkus, J. S., , and H. Riehl, 1960: On the dynamics and energy transformations in steady-state hurricanes. Tellus, 12 , 120.

  • Miller, B. I., 1958: On the maximum intensity of hurricanes. J. Meteor, 15 , 184195.

  • Moller, J. D., , and M. T. Montgomery, 1999: Vortex Rossby waves and hurricane intensification in a barotropic model. J. Atmos. Sci, 56 , 16741687.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Montgomery, M. T., , and R. J. Kallenbach, 1997: A theory for vortex Rossby-waves and its application to spiral bands and intensity changes in hurricanes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 123 , 435465.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ——, and Enagonio, J., 1998: Tropical cyclogenesis via convectively forced vortex Rossby waves in a three-dimensional quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci, 55 , 31763207.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ooyama, K., 1969: Numerical simulation of the life cycle of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci, 26 , 340.

  • Rosenthal, S. L., , and M. S. Moss, 1971: Numerical experiments of relevance to Project STORMFURY. NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL NHRL-95, Coral Gables, FL, 52 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rotunno, R., , and K. A. Emanuel, 1987: An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci, 44 , 542561.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schade, L. R., 2000: Tropical cyclone intensity and sea surface temperature. J. Atmos. Sci, 57 , 31223130.

  • Schubert, W. H., , and J. J. Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J. Atmos. Sci, 39 , 16871697.

  • Shay, L. K., , P. G. Black, , A. J. Mariano, , J. D. Hawkins, , and R. L. Elsberry, 1992: Upper ocean response to Hurricane Gilbert. J. Geophys. Res, 97 , 20 22720 248.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Willoughby, H. E., 1998: Tropical cyclone eye dynamics. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126 , 30533067.

  • ——, Jorgensen, D. P., , R. A. Black, , and S. L. Rosenthal, 1985: Project STORMFURY: A scientific chronicle 1962–1983. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc, 66 , 505514.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 122 122 24
PDF Downloads 78 78 21

Hurricane Maximum Intensity: Past and Present

View More View Less
  • 1 National Weather Service, Sterling, Virginia
  • | 2 Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

Hurricane intensity forecasting has lagged far behind the forecasting of hurricane track. In an effort to improve the understanding of the hurricane intensity dilemma, several attempts have been made to compute an upper bound on the intensity of tropical cyclones. This paper investigates the strides made into determining the maximum intensity of hurricanes. Concentrating on the most recent attempts to understand the maximum intensity problem, the theories of Holland and Emanuel are reviewed with the objective of assessing their validity in real tropical cyclones. Each theory is then tested using both observations and the axisymmetric hurricane numerical models of Ooyama and Emanuel.

It is found that ambient convective instability plays a minor role in the determination of the maximum intensity and that the Emanuel model is the closest to providing a useful calculation of maximum intensity. Several shortcomings are revealed in Emanuel's theory, however, showing the need for more basic research on the axisymmetric and asymmetric dynamics of hurricanes. As an illustration of the importance of asymmetric vorticity dynamics in the determination of a hurricane's maximum intensity it is shown, using Ooyama's hurricane model, that the maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone may be diminished by convectively generated vorticity anomolies excited outside the primary eyewall. The vorticity anomolies are parameterized by adding a concentric ring of vorticity outside the primary eyewall that acts to cut off its supply of angular momentum and moist enthalpy. It is suggested that the generation of vorticity rings (or bands) outside the primary eyewall is a major reason why tropical cyclones fail to attain their maximum intensity even in an otherwise favorable environment.

The upshot of this work points to the need for obtaining a more complete understanding of asymmetric vorticity processes in hurricanes and their coupling to the boundary layer and convection.

Corresponding author address: J. Parks Camp, National Weather Service, 44087 Weather Service Rd., Sterling, VA 20166. Email: Parks.Camp@noaa.gov

Abstract

Hurricane intensity forecasting has lagged far behind the forecasting of hurricane track. In an effort to improve the understanding of the hurricane intensity dilemma, several attempts have been made to compute an upper bound on the intensity of tropical cyclones. This paper investigates the strides made into determining the maximum intensity of hurricanes. Concentrating on the most recent attempts to understand the maximum intensity problem, the theories of Holland and Emanuel are reviewed with the objective of assessing their validity in real tropical cyclones. Each theory is then tested using both observations and the axisymmetric hurricane numerical models of Ooyama and Emanuel.

It is found that ambient convective instability plays a minor role in the determination of the maximum intensity and that the Emanuel model is the closest to providing a useful calculation of maximum intensity. Several shortcomings are revealed in Emanuel's theory, however, showing the need for more basic research on the axisymmetric and asymmetric dynamics of hurricanes. As an illustration of the importance of asymmetric vorticity dynamics in the determination of a hurricane's maximum intensity it is shown, using Ooyama's hurricane model, that the maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone may be diminished by convectively generated vorticity anomolies excited outside the primary eyewall. The vorticity anomolies are parameterized by adding a concentric ring of vorticity outside the primary eyewall that acts to cut off its supply of angular momentum and moist enthalpy. It is suggested that the generation of vorticity rings (or bands) outside the primary eyewall is a major reason why tropical cyclones fail to attain their maximum intensity even in an otherwise favorable environment.

The upshot of this work points to the need for obtaining a more complete understanding of asymmetric vorticity processes in hurricanes and their coupling to the boundary layer and convection.

Corresponding author address: J. Parks Camp, National Weather Service, 44087 Weather Service Rd., Sterling, VA 20166. Email: Parks.Camp@noaa.gov

Save