Article Type:
Research Article

On the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Northwest Pacific Basin

Sim D. Aberson NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida

Search for other papers by Sim D. Aberson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Charles R. Sampson Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

Search for other papers by Charles R. Sampson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Jul 2003
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1491:OTPOTC>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
1491–1497
Restricted access

Abstract

A new Northwest Pacific climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model is derived with historical tropical cyclone tracks during the satellite and aircraft reconnaissance era (1970–95). The new CLIPER extends the forecasts from 3 to 5 days and exhibits smaller forecast biases than the previous CLIPER, although forecast errors are comparable. The new model is based on more accurate historical tropical cyclone track data, and a simpler derivation of the regression equations, than is the old model. Nonlinear systems analysis shows that the predictability timescale in which the average errors increase by a factor e is just over 15 h, which is about the same as that calculated by similar methods near Australia and in the North Atlantic. This suggests that 5-day tropical cyclone track forecasts may be beneficial, assuming small initial errors; therefore, a CLIPER model extended to 5 days is needed as a baseline to measure the forecast skill.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149. Email: sim.aberson@noaa.gov

Abstract

A new Northwest Pacific climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model is derived with historical tropical cyclone tracks during the satellite and aircraft reconnaissance era (1970–95). The new CLIPER extends the forecasts from 3 to 5 days and exhibits smaller forecast biases than the previous CLIPER, although forecast errors are comparable. The new model is based on more accurate historical tropical cyclone track data, and a simpler derivation of the regression equations, than is the old model. Nonlinear systems analysis shows that the predictability timescale in which the average errors increase by a factor e is just over 15 h, which is about the same as that calculated by similar methods near Australia and in the North Atlantic. This suggests that 5-day tropical cyclone track forecasts may be beneficial, assuming small initial errors; therefore, a CLIPER model extended to 5 days is needed as a baseline to measure the forecast skill.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149. Email: sim.aberson@noaa.gov

Save
Cover Monthly Weather Review
Monthly Weather Review

  • Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 1005–1015.

  • Aberson, S. D., 2001: The ensemble of tropical cyclone track forecasting models in the North Atlantic basin (1976–2000). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 1895–1904.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Aberson, S. D., and M. DeMaria, 1994: Verification of a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR). Mon. Wea. Rev., 122 , 2804–2815.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fraedrich, K., and L. M. Leslie, 1989: Estimates of cyclone track predictability. I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115 , 79–92.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Grassberger, P., and I. Proccacia, 1984: Dimensions and entropies of strange attractors from the fluctuating dynamics approach. Physica, 13D , 34–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kolmogorov, A. N., 1958: A new metric invariant of transitive dynamical systems and automorphisms in Lebesgue Spaces. Dokl. Acad. Nauk USSR, 119 , 861.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • McAdie, C. J., and M. B. Lawrence, 1993: Long term trends in National Hurricane Center track forecast errors in the Atlantic basin. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 281–284.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pike, A. C., and C. J. Neumann, 1987: The variation of track forecast difficulty among tropical cyclone basins. Wea. Forecasting, 2 , 237–241.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sinai, Y. G., 1959: On the concept of entropy of a dynamical system. Dokl. Acad. Nauk USSR, 124 , 768.

  • Xu, Y., and C. J. Neumann, 1985: A statistical model for the prediction of western North Pacific cyclone motion (WPCLPR). NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 28, 30 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 350 170 100
PDF Downloads 121 40 1