Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Evaluation of a Multigrid Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Model

Jonathan Vigh Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Scott R. Fulton Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York

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Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Wayne H. Schubert Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Aug 2003
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175//2551.1
Page(s):
1629–1636
Restricted access

Abstract

The performance of a multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model (MUDBAR) is compared to that of a current operational barotropic model (LBAR). Analysis of track forecast errors for the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season shows that MUDBAR gives accuracy similar to LBAR with substantially lower computational cost. Despite the use of a barotropic model, the MUDBAR forecasts show skill relative to climatology and persistence (CLIPER) out to 5 days.

Corresponding author address: Jonathan Vigh, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523. Email: vigh@atmos.colostate.edu

Abstract

The performance of a multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model (MUDBAR) is compared to that of a current operational barotropic model (LBAR). Analysis of track forecast errors for the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season shows that MUDBAR gives accuracy similar to LBAR with substantially lower computational cost. Despite the use of a barotropic model, the MUDBAR forecasts show skill relative to climatology and persistence (CLIPER) out to 5 days.

Corresponding author address: Jonathan Vigh, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523. Email: vigh@atmos.colostate.edu

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