• Adams, N., 2004: A numerical modeling study of the weather in East Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 653672.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brooks, H. E., and C. A. Doswell III, 1996: A comparison of measures-oriented and distributions-oriented approaches to forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 11 , 288303.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell III, and R. A. Maddox, 1992: On the use of mesoscale and cloud-scale models in operational forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7 , 120132.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Case, J. L., J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, M. M. Wheeler, D. E. Harms, and C. R. Parks, 2002: Verification of high-resolution RAMS forecasts over east-central Florida during the 1999 and 2000 summer months. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 11331151.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Case, J. L., J. Manobianco, J. E. Lane, C. D. Immer, and F. J. Merceret, 2004: An objective technique for verifying sea breezes in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 690705.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001a: Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 569585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001b: Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part II: Model validation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 587604.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Colle, B. A., C. F. Mass, and K. J. Westrick, 2000: MM5 precipitation verification over the Pacific Northwest during the 1997–99 cool seasons. Wea. Forecasting, 15 , 730744.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Colle, B. A., C. F. Mass, and D. Ovens, 2001: Evaluation of the timing and strength of MM5 and Eta surface trough passages over the eastern Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 16 , 553572.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Colle, B. A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue, 2003: Multiseason verification of the MM5. Part I: Comparison with the Eta Model over the central and eastern United States and impact of MM5 resolution. Wea. Forecasting, 18 , 431457.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dabberdt, W. F., and Coauthors, 2000: Forecast issues in the urban zone: Report of the 10th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 20472064.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, C., T. Warner, E. Astling, and J. Bowers, 1999: Development and application of an operational, relocatable, mesogamma-scale weather analysis and forecasting system. Tellus, 51A , 710727.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Done, J., C. A. Davis, and M. Weisman, 2004: The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 5 , 110117.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doswell, C. A., and H. E. Brooks, 1998: Budget cutting and the value of weather services. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 206212.

  • Droegemeier, K. K., and Coauthors, 2000: Hydrological aspects of weather prediction and flood warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 26652680.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 30773107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ebert, E., and J. L. McBride, 2000: Verification of precipitation in weather systems: Determination of systematic errors. J. Hydrol., 239 , 179202.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frehlich, R., and R. Sharman, 2004: Estimates of turbulence from numerical weather prediction model output with applications to turbulence diagnosis and data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 23082324.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gall, R., and M. Shapiro, 2000: The influence of Carl-Gustaf Rossby on mesoscale weather prediction and an outlook for the future. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 15071523.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grell, G. A., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121 , 14931513.

  • Hart, K. A., W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert, 2004: An evaluation of mesoscale model based model output statistics (MOS) during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 200218.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hong, S-Y., and H-L. Pan, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 23222339.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Horel, J. D., and Coauthors, 2002: MesoWest: Cooperative mesonets in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 211226.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hsie, E-Y., R. A. Anthes, and D. Keyser, 1984: Numerical simulation of frontogenesis in a moist atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 41 , 25812594.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mahrt, L., 1999: Stratified atmospheric boundary layer. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 90 , 375396.

  • Mass, C. F., D. Ovens, K. Westrick, and B. A. Colle, 2002: Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 407430.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murphy, A. H., 1990: Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119 , 15901601.

  • Murphy, A. H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 8 , 281293.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 13301338.

  • Nachamkin, J. E., 2004: Mesoscale verification using meteorological composites. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 941955.

  • Nappo, C., and P-E. Johansson, 1998: Summary report of the Lovanger international workshop on turbulence and diffusion in the stable planetary boundary layer. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 14011405.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nutter, P., and J. Manobianco, 1999: Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part I: Objective verification at three selected stations. Wea. Forecasting, 14 , 517.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Poulos, G. S., and S. P. Burns, 2003: An evaluation of bulk Ri-based surface layer flux formulas for stable and very stable conditions with intermittent turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 60 , 25232537.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Poulos, G. S., and Coauthors, 2002: CASES-99: A comprehensive investigation of the stable nocturnal boundary layer. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 555581.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rife, D. L., T. T. Warner, F. Chen, and E. G. Astling, 2002: Mechanisms for diurnal boundary layer circulations in the Great Basin Desert. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 921938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rife, D. L., C. A. Davis, Y. Liu, and T. T. Warner, 2004: Predictability of low-level winds by mesoscale meteorological models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 25532569.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roeger, C., R. Stull, D. McClung, J. Hacker, X. Deng, and H. Modzelewski, 2003: Verification of mesoscale numerical weather forecasts in mountainous terrain for application to avalanche prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 18 , 517.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seaman, N. L., D. R. Stauffer, and A. L. Lario-Gibbs, 1995: A multiscale four-dimensional data assimilation system applied in the San Joaquin Valley during SARMAP. Part I: Modeling design and basic performance characteristics. J. Appl. Meteor., 34 , 17391761.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stauffer, D. R., and N. L. Seaman, 1990: Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model. Part I: Experiments with synoptic-scale data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118 , 12501277.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stauffer, D. R., N. L. Seaman, and F. S. Binkowski, 1991: Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model. Part II: Effects of data assimilation within the planetary boundary layer. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119 , 734754.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stewart, J. Q., C. D. Whiteman, W. J. Steenburgh, and X. Bian, 2002: A climatological study of thermally driven wind systems of the U.S. Intermountain West. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 699708.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stull, R. B., 1988: An Introduction to Boundary Layer Meteorology. Kluwer Academic, 666 pp.

  • Warner, T. T., R. A. Peterson, and R. E. Treadon, 1997: A tutorial on lateral boundary conditions as a basic and potentially serious limitation to regional numerical weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 25992617.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Whiteman, C. D., 2000: Mountain Meteorology: Fundamentals and Applications. Oxford University Press, 355 pp.

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 170 77 3
PDF Downloads 108 43 1

Verification of Temporal Variations in Mesoscale Numerical Wind Forecasts

View More View Less
  • 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors address a particular example of the general question of whether high-resolution forecasts provide additional deterministic skill beyond what can be achieved with a coarser-resolution model. To this end, real-time forecasts using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with grid increments of 30 and 3.3 km are compared over a domain centered on the complex terrain region of southern New Mexico during the 1 June 2002 to 1 June 2003 period. The authors use time series of surface data to evaluate the relative ability of the two forecasts to capture significant temporal variations of wind. The authors hypothesize that the additional detail and structure provided by high resolution becomes a “liability” when the forecasts are scored by traditional verification metrics, because such metrics sharply penalize forecasts with small temporal or spatial errors of predicted features. Thus, a set of verification metrics is designed that is increasingly tolerant of timing errors for temporal changes of wind.

The authors find that the barrier-normal (i.e., zonal) wind component over complex terrain reveals the greatest improvement in skill due to increased horizontal resolution for the cases considered here. In addition, the fine-grid forecasts better replicate the cessation of drainage flow or onset of upslope flow near and within complex terrain. The most surprising result is the marginal benefit of the higher resolution over valley locations not in immediate proximity to the mountain slopes, even though the valley is only about 60 km across (east–west). Overall, the gains in forecast accuracy from finer grid spacing are generally incremental, but increase with greater tolerance for timing errors, culminating in the greatest improvement for forecasts of temporal variance.

Corresponding author address: Daran L. Rife, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: drife@ucar.edu

Abstract

The authors address a particular example of the general question of whether high-resolution forecasts provide additional deterministic skill beyond what can be achieved with a coarser-resolution model. To this end, real-time forecasts using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with grid increments of 30 and 3.3 km are compared over a domain centered on the complex terrain region of southern New Mexico during the 1 June 2002 to 1 June 2003 period. The authors use time series of surface data to evaluate the relative ability of the two forecasts to capture significant temporal variations of wind. The authors hypothesize that the additional detail and structure provided by high resolution becomes a “liability” when the forecasts are scored by traditional verification metrics, because such metrics sharply penalize forecasts with small temporal or spatial errors of predicted features. Thus, a set of verification metrics is designed that is increasingly tolerant of timing errors for temporal changes of wind.

The authors find that the barrier-normal (i.e., zonal) wind component over complex terrain reveals the greatest improvement in skill due to increased horizontal resolution for the cases considered here. In addition, the fine-grid forecasts better replicate the cessation of drainage flow or onset of upslope flow near and within complex terrain. The most surprising result is the marginal benefit of the higher resolution over valley locations not in immediate proximity to the mountain slopes, even though the valley is only about 60 km across (east–west). Overall, the gains in forecast accuracy from finer grid spacing are generally incremental, but increase with greater tolerance for timing errors, culminating in the greatest improvement for forecasts of temporal variance.

Corresponding author address: Daran L. Rife, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: drife@ucar.edu

Save