Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Field Significance Revisited: Spatial Bias Errors in Forecasts as Applied to the Eta Model

Kimberly L. Elmore Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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Michael E. Baldwin Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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David M. Schultz Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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Print Publication:
01 Feb 2006
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3077.1
Page(s):
519–531
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Abstract

The spatial structure of bias errors in numerical model output is valuable to both model developers and operational forecasters, especially if the field containing the structure itself has statistical significance in the face of naturally occurring spatial correlation. A semiparametric Monte Carlo method, along with a moving blocks bootstrap method is used to determine the field significance of spatial bias errors within spatially correlated error fields. This process can be completely automated, making it an attractive addition to the verification tools already in use. The process demonstrated here results in statistically significant spatial bias error fields at any arbitrary significance level.

To demonstrate the technique, 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the operational Eta Model and the operational Eta Model using the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization scheme are examined. The resulting fields for forecast errors for geopotential heights and winds at 850, 700, 500, and 250 hPa over a period of 14 months (26 January 2001–31 March 2002) are examined and compared using the verifying initial analysis. Specific examples are shown, and some plausible causes for the resulting significant bias errors are proposed.

* Additional affiliation: NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

+ Additional affiliation: NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

Corresponding author address: Dr. Kimberly L. Elmore, NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069. Email: kim.elmore@noaa.gov

Abstract

The spatial structure of bias errors in numerical model output is valuable to both model developers and operational forecasters, especially if the field containing the structure itself has statistical significance in the face of naturally occurring spatial correlation. A semiparametric Monte Carlo method, along with a moving blocks bootstrap method is used to determine the field significance of spatial bias errors within spatially correlated error fields. This process can be completely automated, making it an attractive addition to the verification tools already in use. The process demonstrated here results in statistically significant spatial bias error fields at any arbitrary significance level.

To demonstrate the technique, 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the operational Eta Model and the operational Eta Model using the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization scheme are examined. The resulting fields for forecast errors for geopotential heights and winds at 850, 700, 500, and 250 hPa over a period of 14 months (26 January 2001–31 March 2002) are examined and compared using the verifying initial analysis. Specific examples are shown, and some plausible causes for the resulting significant bias errors are proposed.

* Additional affiliation: NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

+ Additional affiliation: NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

Corresponding author address: Dr. Kimberly L. Elmore, NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069. Email: kim.elmore@noaa.gov

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