Assimilation with an Ensemble Kalman Filter of Synthetic Radial Wind Data in Anisotropic Turbulence: Perfect Model Experiments

Martin Charron Division de la Recherche en Météorologie, Service Météorologique du Canada, Dorval, Québec, Canada

Search for other papers by Martin Charron in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
P. L. Houtekamer Division de la Recherche en Météorologie, Service Météorologique du Canada, Dorval, Québec, Canada

Search for other papers by P. L. Houtekamer in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Peter Bartello Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada

Search for other papers by Peter Bartello in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) developed at the Meteorological Research Branch of Canada is used in the context of synthetic radial wind data assimilation at the mesoscale. A dry Boussinesq model with periodic boundary conditions is employed to provide a control run, as well as two ensembles of first guesses. Synthetic data, which are interpolated from the control run, are assimilated and simulate Doppler radar wind measurements.

Nine “radars” with a range of 120 km are placed evenly on the horizontal 1000 km × 1000 km domain. These radars measure the radial wind with assumed Gaussian error statistics at each grid point within their range provided that there is sufficient upward motion (a proxy for precipitation). These data of radial winds are assimilated every 30 min and the assimilation period extends over 4 days.

Results show that the EnKF technique with 2 × 50 members performed well in terms of reducing the analysis error for horizontal winds and temperature (even though temperature is not an observed variable) over a period of 4 days. However the analyzed vertical velocity shows an initial degradation. During the first 2 days of the assimilation period, the analysis error of the vertical velocity is greater when assimilating radar observations than when scoring forecasts initialized at t = 0 without assimilating any data. The type of assimilated data as well as the localization of the impact of the observations is thought to be the cause of this degradation of the analyzed vertical velocity. External gravity modes are present in the increments when localization is performed. This degradation can be eliminated by filtering the external gravity modes of the analysis increments.

A similar set of experiments is realized in which the model dissipation coefficient is reduced by a factor of 10. This shows the level of sensitivity of the results to the kinetic energy power spectrum, and that the quality of the analyzed vertical wind is worse when dissipation is small.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Martin Charron, Division de la Recherche en Météorologie, 2121 route Transcanadienne, Dorval, Québec H9P 1J3, Canada. Email: Martin.Charron@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) developed at the Meteorological Research Branch of Canada is used in the context of synthetic radial wind data assimilation at the mesoscale. A dry Boussinesq model with periodic boundary conditions is employed to provide a control run, as well as two ensembles of first guesses. Synthetic data, which are interpolated from the control run, are assimilated and simulate Doppler radar wind measurements.

Nine “radars” with a range of 120 km are placed evenly on the horizontal 1000 km × 1000 km domain. These radars measure the radial wind with assumed Gaussian error statistics at each grid point within their range provided that there is sufficient upward motion (a proxy for precipitation). These data of radial winds are assimilated every 30 min and the assimilation period extends over 4 days.

Results show that the EnKF technique with 2 × 50 members performed well in terms of reducing the analysis error for horizontal winds and temperature (even though temperature is not an observed variable) over a period of 4 days. However the analyzed vertical velocity shows an initial degradation. During the first 2 days of the assimilation period, the analysis error of the vertical velocity is greater when assimilating radar observations than when scoring forecasts initialized at t = 0 without assimilating any data. The type of assimilated data as well as the localization of the impact of the observations is thought to be the cause of this degradation of the analyzed vertical velocity. External gravity modes are present in the increments when localization is performed. This degradation can be eliminated by filtering the external gravity modes of the analysis increments.

A similar set of experiments is realized in which the model dissipation coefficient is reduced by a factor of 10. This shows the level of sensitivity of the results to the kinetic energy power spectrum, and that the quality of the analyzed vertical wind is worse when dissipation is small.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Martin Charron, Division de la Recherche en Météorologie, 2121 route Transcanadienne, Dorval, Québec H9P 1J3, Canada. Email: Martin.Charron@ec.gc.ca

Save
  • Bartello, P., O. Métais, and M. Lesieur, 1996: Geostrophic versus wave eddy viscosities in atmospheric models. J. Atmos. Sci, 53 , 564571.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev, 125 , 99119.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burgers, G., P. J. van Leeuwen, and G. Evensen, 1998: Analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126 , 17191724.

  • Charron, M., 2002: Error growth estimates of operational forecasts produced by the Canadian Meteorological Centre numerical weather prediction model. Tech. Report KM156-2-3043, 21 pp. [Available from the Meteorological Research Branch, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, Dorval, H9P 1J3 Québec, Canada.].

  • Ehrendorfer, M., 1994a: The Liouville equation and its potential usefulness for the prediction of forecast skill. Part I: Theory. Mon. Wea. Rev, 122 , 703713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ehrendorfer, M., 1994b: The Liouville equation and its potential usefulness for the prediction of forecast skill. Part II: Applications. Mon. Wea. Rev, 122 , 714728.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Epstein, E. S., 1969: Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 21 , 739759.

  • Evensen, G., 1994: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic ocean model. J. Geophys. Res, 99 , 1014310162.

  • Evensen, G., 1997: Advanced data assimilation for strongly nonlinear dynamics. Mon. Wea. Rev, 125 , 13421354.

  • Evensen, G., and P. J. van Leeuwen, 1996: Assimilation of Geosat altimeter data for the Agulhas current using the ensemble Kalman filter with a quasi-geostrophic model. Mon. Wea. Rev, 124 , 8596.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gaspari, G., and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 125 , 723757.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamill, T. M., 2001: An overview of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. Preprints, 14th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 353–357.

  • Houtekamer, P. L., and H. L. Mitchell, 1998: Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126 , 796811.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Houtekamer, P. L., and H. L. Mitchell, 1999: Reply. Mon. Wea. Rev, 127 , 13781379.

  • Houtekamer, P. L., and H. L. Mitchell, 2001: A sequential ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev, 129 , 123137.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 102 , 409418.

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci, 20 , 130141.

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 34 , 505513.

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1990: Effects of analysis and model errors on routine weather forecasts. Proc. 1989 ECMWF Seminar on Ten Years of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Vol. 1, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 115–128.

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1993: The Essence of Chaos. University of Washington Press, 227 pp.

  • Reichle, R. H., D. B. McLaughlin, and D. Entekhabi, 2002: Hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 103114.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simmons, A. J., R. Mureau, and T. Petroliagis, 1995: Error growth and estimates of predictability from the ECMWF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 121 , 17391772.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Snyder, C., and F. Zhang, 2003: Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 131 , 16631677.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev, 125 , 32973319.

  • van Leeuwen, P. J., 1999: Comments on “Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique.”. Mon. Wea. Rev, 127 , 13741377.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 111 56 8
PDF Downloads 40 11 0