Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Evolution of Morning Convective Systems over the U.S. Great Plains during the Warm Season. Part II: A Climatology and the Influence of Environmental Factors

Carl E. Hane NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Carl E. Hane in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
John A. Haynes School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by John A. Haynes in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
David L. Andra Jr. NOAA/National Weather Service, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by David L. Andra Jr. in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Frederick H. Carr School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Frederick H. Carr in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Mar 2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2016.1
Page(s):
929–944
Restricted access

Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems that affect a limited area within the southern plains of the United States during late morning hours during the warm season are investigated. A climatological study over a 5-yr period documents the initiation locations and times, tracks, associated severe weather, and relation to synoptic features over the lifetimes of 145 systems. An assessment is also made of system evolution in each case during the late morning. For a subset of 48 systems, vertical profiles of basic variables from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model analyses are used to characterize the environment of each system. Scatter diagrams and discriminant analyses are used to assess which environmental variables are most promising in helping to determine which of two classes of evolutionary character each system will follow.

* Current affiliation: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C

Corresponding author address: Dr. Carl E. Hane, 1119 Hawkeye Street, Fort Collins, CO 80525. Email: carl.hane@noaa.gov

Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems that affect a limited area within the southern plains of the United States during late morning hours during the warm season are investigated. A climatological study over a 5-yr period documents the initiation locations and times, tracks, associated severe weather, and relation to synoptic features over the lifetimes of 145 systems. An assessment is also made of system evolution in each case during the late morning. For a subset of 48 systems, vertical profiles of basic variables from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model analyses are used to characterize the environment of each system. Scatter diagrams and discriminant analyses are used to assess which environmental variables are most promising in helping to determine which of two classes of evolutionary character each system will follow.

* Current affiliation: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C

Corresponding author address: Dr. Carl E. Hane, 1119 Hawkeye Street, Fort Collins, CO 80525. Email: carl.hane@noaa.gov

Save
Cover Monthly Weather Review
Monthly Weather Review

  • Augustine, J. A., and F. Caracena, 1994: Lower-tropospheric precursors to nocturnal MCS development over the central United States. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 116–135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2004: An hourly assimilation/forecast cycle: The RUC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 495–518.

  • Carbone, R. E., J. D. Tuttle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier, 2002: Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes. J. Atmos. Sci., 59 , 2033–2056.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Coniglio, M. C., and S. F. Corfidi, 2006: Forecasting the speed and longevity of severe mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, Symp. on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P1.30.

  • Coniglio, M. C., D. J. Stensrud, and M. B. Richman, 2004: An observational study of derecho-producing convective systems. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 320–337.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Coniglio, M. C., D. J. Stensrud, and L. J. Wicker, 2006: Effects of upper-level shear on the structure and maintenance of strong quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 63 , 1231–1252.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cotton, W. R., R. L. George, P. J. Wetzel, and R. L. McAnelly, 1983: A long-lived mesoscale convective complex. Part I: The mountain-generated component. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111 , 1893–1918.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Easterling, D. R., and P. J. Robinson, 1985: The diurnal variation of thunderstorm activity in the United States. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 24 , 1048–1058.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Evans, J. S., and C. A. Doswell III, 2001: Examination of derecho environments using proximity soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 16 , 329–342.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gale, J. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., and K. A. Jungbluth, 2002: Toward improved prediction of mesoscale convective system dissipation. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 856–872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hane, C. E., J. D. Watts, D. L. Andra Jr., J. A. Haynes, E. Berry, R. M. Rabin, and F. H. Carr, 2003: The evolution of morning convective systems over the U.S. Great Plains during the warm season. Part I: The forecast problem. Wea. Forecasting, 18 , 1286–1294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Haynes, J. A., 2002: Analysis of warm season morning convection across the southern Great Plains. M.S. thesis, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 119 pp.

  • Heideman, K. F., and J. M. Fritsch, 1988: Forcing mechanisms and other characteristics of summertime precipitation. Wea. Forecasting, 3 , 115–130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Karr, T. W., and R. L. Wooten, 1976: Summer radar echo distribution around Limon, Colorado. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104 , 728–734.

  • Klitch, M. A., J. F. Weaver, F. P. Kelly, and T. H. Vonder Harr, 1985: Convective cloud climatologies constructed from satellite imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113 , 326–337.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lanicci, J. M., and T. T. Warner, 1991: A synoptic climatology of the elevated mixed-layer inversion over the southern Great Plains in spring. Part I: Structure, dynamics, and seasonal evolution. Wea. Forecasting, 6 , 181–197.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Maddox, R. A., 1980: Mesoscale convective complexes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 61 , 1374–1387.

  • Moncrieff, M. W., and M. J. Miller, 1976: The dynamics and simulation of tropical cumulonimbus and squall lines. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 102 , 373–394.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rasmusson, E. M., 1971: Diurnal variation of thunderstorm activity over the U.S. Tech. Note 71-4, U.S. Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Center, Washington, DC, 12 pp. [Available from U.S. Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Ctr., Bldg. 159, Navy Yard Annex, Washington, DC 20333.].

  • Rotunno, R., J. B. Klemp, and M. L. Weisman, 1988: A theory for strong, long-lived squall lines. J. Atmos. Sci., 45 , 463–485.

  • Stensrud, D. J., M. C. Coniglio, R. P. Davies-Jones, and J. S. Evans, 2005: Comments on “‘A theory for strong long-lived squall lines’ revisited”. J. Atmos. Sci., 62 , 2989–2996.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Szoke, E. J., M. L. Weisman, J. M. Brown, F. Caracena, and T. W. Schlatter, 1984: A subsynoptic analysis of the Denver tornadoes of 3 June 1981. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112 , 790–808.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thorpe, A. J., M. J. Miller, and M. W. Moncrieff, 1982: Two-dimensional convection in non-constant shear: A model of mid-latitude squall lines. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 108 , 739–762.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tucker, D. F., and N. A. Crook, 1999: The generation of a mesoscale convective system from mountain convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127 , 1259–1273.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wallace, J. M., 1975: Diurnal variations in precipitation and thunderstorm frequency over the coterminous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103 , 406–419.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Weisman, M. L., 1993: The genesis of severe, long-lived bow echoes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50 , 645–670.

  • Weisman, M. L., and J. B. Klemp, 1986: Characteristics of isolated convective storms. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 331–358.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Weisman, M. L., and R. Rotunno, 2004: “A theory for strong long-lived squall lines” revisited. J. Atmos. Sci., 61 , 361–382.

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: : Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.

  • Wilson, J. W., and D. L. Megenhardt, 1997: Thunderstorm initiation, organization, and lifetime associated with Florida boundary layer convergence lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125 , 1507–1525.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Xue, M., 1990: Towards the environmental condition for long-lived squall lines: Vorticity versus momentum. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, AB, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 146–149.

  • Xue, M., 2000: Density current in two-layer shear flows. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126 , 1301–1320.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 110 41 5
PDF Downloads 43 15 3