Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Factorial Analysis of Storm Surge Flooding in Barrow, Alaska

Amanda H. Lynch School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

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Leanne R. Lestak Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

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Petteri Uotila School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

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Elizabeth N. Cassano Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

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Lian Xie Coastal Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, North Carolina State University at Raleigh, Raleigh, North Carolina

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2121.1
Page(s):
898–912
Restricted access

Abstract

This paper describes work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of flooding in Barrow, Alaska, using as a basis the series of extreme events that have affected the community over the past 50 years. A numerical weather prediction model and a storm surge inundation model have been applied to the 21 case studies identified in National Weather Service data as high wind events. Based on this simulation work flow, a reduced-form model that adequately describes the flooding response has been developed. Specifically, it was found that when wind is forecast to be greater than 13 m s−1 (30 mph) for at least 20 h, this is the most accurate predictor of the possibility of damaging flood. It was found that wind direction, the magnitude of fetch to the sea ice edge (when present), and maximum wind speed were in contrast relatively small contributors to the likelihood of flooding.

Corresponding author address: Amanda H. Lynch, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia. Email: amanda.lynch@arts.monash.edu.au

Abstract

This paper describes work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of flooding in Barrow, Alaska, using as a basis the series of extreme events that have affected the community over the past 50 years. A numerical weather prediction model and a storm surge inundation model have been applied to the 21 case studies identified in National Weather Service data as high wind events. Based on this simulation work flow, a reduced-form model that adequately describes the flooding response has been developed. Specifically, it was found that when wind is forecast to be greater than 13 m s−1 (30 mph) for at least 20 h, this is the most accurate predictor of the possibility of damaging flood. It was found that wind direction, the magnitude of fetch to the sea ice edge (when present), and maximum wind speed were in contrast relatively small contributors to the likelihood of flooding.

Corresponding author address: Amanda H. Lynch, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia. Email: amanda.lynch@arts.monash.edu.au

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