Abstract
Warm season cold cloud-top climatology in the Austral–Indonesian region is examined for evidence of propagating modes of precipitation that originate from elevated heat sources and the diurnal heating cycle. Using satellite-inferred cloudiness from the period 1996–2001 as a proxy for rainfall, this coherent regeneration process and subsequent event propagation is found to consistently occur from the midlatitudes (30°–40°S) to the tropics (10°–20°S) in the Austral region.
Given favorable environmental shear at midlatitudes, long-lived eastward-propagating events are observed to occur regularly with a span and duration typically larger than observed by Carbone et al. The genesis of these events, while intermittent, is directly related to elevated heat sources and the diurnal cycle, similar to the United States. However, given the relatively flat terrain of Australia, an elevated heat source is often insufficient, thus increasing the relative influence of transient synoptic forcing.
In the tropics, the thermal forcing associated with elevated terrain found over the islands of the Maritime Continent and the land–sea interface is increasingly dominant on daily basis. While eastward- and westward-propagating events are found in the more varied environment of the monsoon regime, evidence for meridionally propagating modes is also found. In this manner, complex interactions occur that modify the location and timing of clouds that develop over neighboring oceanic and continental locations. The impact of convection initially linked to the New Guinea highlands and subsequently impacting the Java Sea region is particularly evident affecting the observed diurnal cycle.
The subtropics show characteristics intermediate between the above extremes. With the seasonal cycle, the spring environment favors eastward-propagating events but in summer there is an increasing frequency of diurnally forced quasi-stationary development over elevated terrain enhanced by favorable synoptic conditions. Overall the subtropical summer events have a shorter duration and span than their spring counterparts. The increased environmental steering winds and shear in spring are thought to be the primary reason.
Corresponding author address: T. Keenan, Bureau of Meteorology, P.O. Box 1289K, Melbourne 540000, Australia. Email: t.keenan@bom.gov.au
