Article Type:
Research Article

Dynamical Extended-Range Prediction of Early Monsoon Rainfall over India

Frédéric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

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Franco Molteni European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2761.1
Page(s):
1480–1492
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Abstract

The 15-member ensembles of 46-day dynamical forecasts starting on each 15 May from 1991 to 2007 have been produced, using the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System monthly forecasting system (VarEPS-monthy). The dynamical model simulates a realistic interannual variability of Indian precipitation averaged over the month of June. It also displays some skill to predict Indian precipitation averaged over pentads up to a lead time of about 30 days. This skill exceeds the skill of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting System 3 starting on 1 June. Sensitivity experiments indicate that this is likely due to the higher horizontal resolution of VarEPS-monthly. Another series of sensitivity experiments suggests that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has an important impact on the skill of the monthly forecasting system to predict June rainfall over India.

Corresponding author address: Frédéric Vitart, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom. Email: nec@ecmwf.int

Abstract

The 15-member ensembles of 46-day dynamical forecasts starting on each 15 May from 1991 to 2007 have been produced, using the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System monthly forecasting system (VarEPS-monthy). The dynamical model simulates a realistic interannual variability of Indian precipitation averaged over the month of June. It also displays some skill to predict Indian precipitation averaged over pentads up to a lead time of about 30 days. This skill exceeds the skill of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting System 3 starting on 1 June. Sensitivity experiments indicate that this is likely due to the higher horizontal resolution of VarEPS-monthly. Another series of sensitivity experiments suggests that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has an important impact on the skill of the monthly forecasting system to predict June rainfall over India.

Corresponding author address: Frédéric Vitart, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom. Email: nec@ecmwf.int

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