• Aberson, S. D., 2003: Targeted observations to improve operational tropical cyclone track forecast guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 16131628.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aberson, S. D., 2008: Large forecast degradations due to synoptic surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136 , 31383150.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berger, H., and M. Forsythe, 2004: Satellite wind superobbing. Met Office Forecasting Research Tech. Rep. 451, 33 pp. [Available online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berger, H., and C. Velden, 2006: Efforts to improve the assimilation and analysis of satellite-derived winds. Preprints, Second THORPEX Int. Science Symp., Landshut, Germany, WMO, 172–173. [Available online at www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/thorpex/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chou, K-H., and C. C. Wu, 2008: Typhoon initialization in a mesoscale model – combination of the bogused vortex and the dropwindsonde data in DOTSTAR. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136 , 865879.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Daley, R., and E. Barker, 2001: NAVDAS source book. NRL/PU/7530-01-441, 161 pp. [Available from the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943-5502.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goerss, J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 11871193.

  • Goerss, J. S., 2006: Prediction of tropical cyclone track forecast error for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11A.1. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107310.pdf.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goerss, J. S., and R. S. Jeffries, 1994: Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 557576.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goerss, J. S., and T. F. Hogan, 2006: Impact of satellite observations and forecast model improvements on tropical cyclone track forecasts. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107291.pdf.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goerss, J. S., C. S. Velden, and J. D. Hawkins, 1998: The impact of multi-spectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone forecasts in 1995. Part II: NOGAPS forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 , 12191227.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goerss, J. S., C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2004: A history of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 633638.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hogan, T., and T. Rosmond, 1991: The description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System’s spectral forecasts model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119 , 17861815.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hogan, T., and R. L. Pauley, 2006: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts to convective momentum transport in the NOGAPS Emanuel cumulus parameterization. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11.A.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107309.pdf.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Langland, R. H., 2005: Issues in targeted observing. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131 , 34093425.

  • Majumdar, S. J., S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2006: A comparison of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134 , 23542372.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pauley, P. M., 2003: Superobbing satellite winds for NAVDAS. Tech. Rep. NRL/MR/7530/-03-8670, 102 pp. [Available from the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943-5502.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peng, M. S., R. N. Maue, C. A. Reynolds, and R. H. Langland, 2007: Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and mid-latitude trough interactions. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 97 , 221237.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pu, Z., X. Li, C. Velden, S. Aberson, and W. T. Liu, 2008: The impact of aircraft dropsonde and satellite wind data on the numerical simulations of two landfalling tropical storms during Tropical Cloud Systems Processes Experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 23 , 6279.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saunders, R., and S. English, 2006: Exploitation of satellite data for NWP. Preprints, Second THORPEX Int. Science Symp., Landshut, Germany, WMO, 100–101. [Available online at www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/thorpex/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Velden, C., D. Stettner, and J. Daniels, 2000: Wind vector fields derived from GOES rapid scan imagery. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Satellite Meteorology, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 20–23.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Velden, C., and Coauthors, 2005: Recent innovations in deriving tropospheric winds from meteorological satellites. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86 , 205223.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C-C., J-H. Chen, P-H. Lin, and K-H. Chou, 2007a: Targeted observations of tropical cyclone movement based on the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector. J. Atmos. Sci., 64 , 26112626.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C-C., K-H. Chou, P-H. Lin, S. D. Aberson, M. S. Peng, and T. Nakazawa, 2007b: The impact of dropwindsonde data on typhoon track forecasts in DOTSTAR. Wea. Forecasting, 22 , 11571176.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 183 183 183
PDF Downloads 4 4 4

Impact of Satellite-Derived Rapid-Scan Wind Observations on Numerical Model Forecasts of Hurricane Katrina

View More View Less
  • 1 Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
  • | 2 CIMSS, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
  • | 3 Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
  • | 4 CIMSS, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
Restricted access

Abstract

The impacts of special Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) rapid-scan (RS) wind observations on numerical model 24–120-h track forecasts of Hurricane Katrina are examined in a series of data assimilation and forecast experiments. The RS wind vectors are derived from geostationary satellites by tracking cloud motions through successive 5-min images. In these experiments, RS wind observations are added over the area 15°–60°N, 60°–110°W, and they supplement the observations used in operational forecasts. The inclusion of RS wind observations reduces errors in numerical forecasts of the Katrina landfall position at 1200 UTC 29 August 2005 by an average of 12% compared to control cases that include “targeted” dropsonde observations in the Katrina environment. The largest average improvements are made to the 84- to 120-h Katrina track forecasts, rather than to the short-range track forecasts. These results suggest that RS wind observations can potentially be used in future cases to improve track forecasts of tropical cyclones.

Corresponding author address: Rolf H. Langland, Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943. Email: langland@nrlmry.navy.mil

This article included in the Targeted Observations, Data Assimilation, and Tropical Cyclone Predictability special collection.

Abstract

The impacts of special Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) rapid-scan (RS) wind observations on numerical model 24–120-h track forecasts of Hurricane Katrina are examined in a series of data assimilation and forecast experiments. The RS wind vectors are derived from geostationary satellites by tracking cloud motions through successive 5-min images. In these experiments, RS wind observations are added over the area 15°–60°N, 60°–110°W, and they supplement the observations used in operational forecasts. The inclusion of RS wind observations reduces errors in numerical forecasts of the Katrina landfall position at 1200 UTC 29 August 2005 by an average of 12% compared to control cases that include “targeted” dropsonde observations in the Katrina environment. The largest average improvements are made to the 84- to 120-h Katrina track forecasts, rather than to the short-range track forecasts. These results suggest that RS wind observations can potentially be used in future cases to improve track forecasts of tropical cyclones.

Corresponding author address: Rolf H. Langland, Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943. Email: langland@nrlmry.navy.mil

This article included in the Targeted Observations, Data Assimilation, and Tropical Cyclone Predictability special collection.

Save