• Bender, M. A., , R. E. Tuleya, , and Y. Kurihara, 1985: A numerical study of the effect of a mountain range on a landfalling tropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 567582.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bender, M. A., , R. E. Tuleya, , and Y. Kurihara, 1987: A numerical study of the effect of island terrain on tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 130155.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bender, M. A., , R. Ross, , R. E. Tuleya, , and Y. Kurihara, 1993: Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using the GFDL initialization system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 20462061.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brand, S., , and J. W. Blelloch, 1974: Changes in the characteristics of typhoons crossing the island of Taiwan. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 708713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chan, J. C.-L., , and R. T. Williams, 1987: Analytical and numerical study of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Zero mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 12571265.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, S. W., 1982: The orographic effects induced by an island mountain range on propagating tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 12551270.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, C.-S., , Y.-L. Chen, , W.-C. Chen, , and P.-L. Lin, 2007: The statistics of heavy rainfall occurrences in Taiwan. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 9811002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, F., , and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 569585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cheung, K. K. W., , L.-R. Huang, , and C.-S. Lee, 2008: Characteristics of rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in Taiwan. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 14631474.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chiao, S., , and Y.-L. Lin, 2003: Numerical modeling of an orographically induced precipitation event associated with Tropical Storm Rachel over Taiwan. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 325344.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chou, K.-H., , and C.-C. Wu, 2008: Typhoon initialization in a mesoscale model—Combination of the bogused vortex and the dropwindsonde data in DOTSTAR. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 865879.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davidson, N. E., , and H. C. Weber, 2000: The BMRC high-resolution tropical cyclone prediction system: TC-LAPS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 12451265.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, C. A., , and S. Low-Nam, 2001: The NCAR–AFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme: A report prepared for the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). National Center for Atmospheric Research, 13 pp. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/mm5v3/tc-report.pdf.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 30773107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ferrier, B. S., , Y. Jin, , Y. Lin, , T. Black, , E. Rogers, , and G. DiMego, 2002: Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 280–283.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fujita, T., 1952: Pressure distribution within typhoon. Geophys. Mag., 23, 437451.

  • Hawkins, H. F., , and D. T. Rubsam, 1968: Hurricane Hilda, 1964 II. Structure and budgets of the hurricanes on October 1, 1964. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 617636.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holland, G. J., 1980: An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in a hurricane. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 12121218.

  • Hong, C.-C., , H.-H. Hsu, , M.-Y. Lee, , and J.-L. Kuo, 2010: Role of submonthly disturbance and 40-50-day ISO on the extreme rainfall event associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009) in Southern Taiwan. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08805, doi:10.1029/2010GL042761.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Iwasaki, T., , H. Nakano, , and M. Sugi, 1987: The performance of a typhoon track prediction model with convective parameterization. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 65, 555570.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Janjic, Z. I., 1994: The step–mountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 927945.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Janjic, Z. I., 2000: Comments on “Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models.” J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3686.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jian, G.-J., , C.-S. Lee, , and G. T.-J. Chen, 2006: Numerical simulation of Typhoon Dot (1990) during TCM-90: The discontinuous track across Taiwan. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 17, 2352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiang, H., , J. B. Halverson, , J. Simpson, , and E. J. Zipser, 2008a: On the differences in storm rainfall from Hurricanes Isidore and Lili. Part II: Water budget. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 4461.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiang, H., , J. B. Halverson, , and E. J. Zipser, 2008b: Effects of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone precipitation: Land/ocean difference. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17806, doi:10.1029/2008GL034658.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jorgensen, D. P., 1984: Mesoscale and convective-scale characteristics of mature hurricanes. Part II: Inner-core structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 12871311.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kurihara, Y., , M. A. Bender, , R. E. Tuleya, , and R. J. Ross, 1990: Prediction experiments of Hurricane Gloria (1985) using a multiply nested movable mesh model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 21852198.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kurihara, Y., , M. A. Bender, , and R. J. Ross, 1993: An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 20302045.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kwon, I.-H., , and H.-B. Cheong, 2010: Tropical cyclone initialization with spherical high-order filter and idealized three-dimensional bogus vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 13441367.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lander, M. A., 1994: Description of a monsoon gyre and its effect on the tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 640654.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, Y. L., , D. B. Ensley, , and S. Chiao, 2002: Orographic influences on rainfall and track deflection associated with the passage of a tropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 29292950.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., , D.-L. Zhang, , and M. K. Yau, 1997: A multiscale numerical study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit simulation and verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 30733093.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mathur, M. B., 1991: The national meteorological center’s quasi-Lagrangian model for hurricane prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 14191447.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mlawer, E. J., , S. J. Taubman, , P. D. Brown, , and M. J. Iacono, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16 66316 682.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Monin, A. S., , and A. M. Obukhov, 1954: Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere. Contrib. Geophys. Inst. Acad. Sci., USSR, 151, 163187.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Noh, Y., , W. G. Cheon, , S. Y. Hong, , and S. Raasch, 2003: Improvement of the K-profile model for the planetary boundary layer based on large eddy simulation data. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 107, 421427.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pu, Z. X., , and S. A. Braun, 2001: Evaluation of bogus vortex techniques with fou-dimensional variational data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 20232039.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ross, R., , and Y. Kurihara, 1992: A simplified scheme to simulate asymmetries due to the beta effect in barotropic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 16201628.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Skamarock, W. C., , J. B. Klemp, , J. Dudhia, , D. O. Gill, , D. M. Barker, , W. Wang, , and J. G. Powers, 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 2. NCAR Tech. Note TN-468 STR, 88 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smirnov, V. V., , and G. W. K. Moore, 1999: Spatial and temporal structure of atmospheric water vapor transport in the Mackenzie River basin. J. Climate, 12, 681696.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Viltard, N., , C. Burlaud, , and C. D. Kummerow, 2006: Rain retrieval from TMI brightness temperature measurements using a TRMM PR-based database. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 455466.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, D., , X. Liang, , Y. Zhao, , and B. Wang, 2008: A comparison of two tropical cyclone bogussing schemes. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 194204.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C.-C., 2001: Numerical simulation of Typhoon Gladys (1994) and its interaction with Taiwan terrain using the GFDL hurricane model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 15331549.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C.-C., , and Y.-H. Kuo, 1999: Typhoons affecting Taiwan: Current understanding and future challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 6780.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C.-C., , T.-H. Yen, , Y.-H. Kuo, , and W. Wang, 2002: Rainfall simulation associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan. Part I: The topographic effect. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 10011015.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C.-C., and Coauthors, 2005: Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR): An overview. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 787790.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C.-C., , K.-H. Chou, , Y. Wang, , and Y.-H. Kuo, 2006: Tropical cyclone initialization and prediction based on four-dimensional variational data assimilation. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 23832395.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, C.-C., , K. K. W. Cheung, , and Y. Y. Lo, 2009: Numerical study of the rainfall event due to the interaction of Typhoon Babs (1998) and the northeasterly monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 20492064.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yeh, T.-C., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1993a: Interaction of typhoons with the Taiwan orography. Part I: Upstream track deflections. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 31933212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yeh, T.-C., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1993b: Interaction of typhoons with the Taiwan orography. Part II: Continuous and discontinuous tracks across the island. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 32133233.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, X., , Q. Xiao, , and P. J. Fitzpatrick, 2007: The impact of multisatellite data on the initialization and simulation of Hurricane Lili’s (2002) rapid weakening phase. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 526548.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Y., , Y.-L. Chen, , S.-Y. Hong, , H.-M. H. Juang, , and K. Kodama, 2005: Validation of the coupled NCEP mesoscale spectral model and an advanced land surface model over the Hawaiian Islands. Part I: Summer trade wind conditions and a heavy rainfall event. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 847872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, Y., , B. Wang, , and Y. Wang, 2007: Initialization and simulation of a landfalling typhoon using a variational bogus mapped data assimilation (BMDA). Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 98, 269282.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zou, X., , and Q. Xiao, 2000: Studies on the initialization and simulation of a mature hurricane using a variational bogus data assimilation scheme. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 836860.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 72 73 20
PDF Downloads 46 46 9

High-Resolution Initialization and Simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009)

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

A model self-bogus vortex is constructed by cycle runs using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide high-resolution initial conditions for tropical cyclone (TC) simulations. The vortex after 1 h of model simulation is used to construct the vortex structure for the initial conditions for the next cycle run. After about 80 cycle runs, the TC structure is well adapted to the model employed and well adjusted to the given large-scale conditions.

Three separate simulations using three different initial conditions including global analysis (CTRL), the bogus package from WRF (WB), and the new initialization package (NT) are performed for Typhoon Morakot (2009). The NT scheme shows advantages in generating realistic vortex features including sea level pressure, winds, a warm core, and correct TC size with the meteorological fields away from the observed TC center consistent with the global analysis. The NT scheme also shows significant improvements in TC simulations including asymmetric structure, track, intensity, strength of low-level winds, radar reflectivity, and rainfall. For other runs, such as WB and CTRL, the unbalanced initial vortex needs to adjust to the changing environment during the first 2–3 days of model simulations, which is likely to have negative impacts on the track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts in most cases.

For all three different types of model initializations, the model is capable of simulating heavy orographic precipitation over southern Taiwan. However, with a better track forecast, only the NT run simulates the high-reflectivity band associated with the convergence zone between Morakot’s circulations and the southwest monsoon off the southeast coast. In addition to Morakot’s slow movement and relatively large size, Typhoons Goni and Etau were embedded within a moist monsoon gyre. The combined circulations associated with the monsoon gyre and tropical storms bring in moisture-laden flows toward the western slopes of southern Taiwan.

Corresponding author address: Yi-Leng Chen, Dept. of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: yileng@hawaii.edu

Abstract

A model self-bogus vortex is constructed by cycle runs using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide high-resolution initial conditions for tropical cyclone (TC) simulations. The vortex after 1 h of model simulation is used to construct the vortex structure for the initial conditions for the next cycle run. After about 80 cycle runs, the TC structure is well adapted to the model employed and well adjusted to the given large-scale conditions.

Three separate simulations using three different initial conditions including global analysis (CTRL), the bogus package from WRF (WB), and the new initialization package (NT) are performed for Typhoon Morakot (2009). The NT scheme shows advantages in generating realistic vortex features including sea level pressure, winds, a warm core, and correct TC size with the meteorological fields away from the observed TC center consistent with the global analysis. The NT scheme also shows significant improvements in TC simulations including asymmetric structure, track, intensity, strength of low-level winds, radar reflectivity, and rainfall. For other runs, such as WB and CTRL, the unbalanced initial vortex needs to adjust to the changing environment during the first 2–3 days of model simulations, which is likely to have negative impacts on the track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts in most cases.

For all three different types of model initializations, the model is capable of simulating heavy orographic precipitation over southern Taiwan. However, with a better track forecast, only the NT run simulates the high-reflectivity band associated with the convergence zone between Morakot’s circulations and the southwest monsoon off the southeast coast. In addition to Morakot’s slow movement and relatively large size, Typhoons Goni and Etau were embedded within a moist monsoon gyre. The combined circulations associated with the monsoon gyre and tropical storms bring in moisture-laden flows toward the western slopes of southern Taiwan.

Corresponding author address: Yi-Leng Chen, Dept. of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: yileng@hawaii.edu
Save