Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Impact of Resolution and Design on the U.S. Navy Global Ensemble Performance in the Tropics

Carolyn A. Reynolds Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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Justin G. McLay Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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James S. Goerss Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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Efren A. Serra DeVine Consulting, Inc., Fremont, California

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Daniel Hodyss Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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Charles R. Sampson Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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Print Publication:
01 Jul 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3546.1
Page(s):
2145–2155
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Abstract

The performance of the U.S. Navy global atmospheric ensemble prediction system is examined with a focus on tropical winds and tropical cyclone tracks. Ensembles are run at a triangular truncation of T119, T159, and T239, with 33, 17, and 9 ensemble members, respectively, to evaluate the impact of resolution versus the number of ensemble member tradeoffs on ensemble performance. Results indicate that the T159 and T239 ensemble mean tropical cyclone track errors are significantly smaller than those of the T119 ensemble out to 4 days. For ensemble forecasts of upper- and lower-tropospheric tropical winds, increasing resolution has only a small impact on ensemble mean root-mean-square error for wind speed, but does improve Brier scores for 10-m wind speed at the 5 m s−1 threshold. In addition to the resolution tests, modifications to the ensemble transform initial perturbation methodology and inclusion of stochastic kinetic energy backscatter are also evaluated. Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter substantially increases the ensemble spread and improves Brier scores in the tropics, but for the most part does not significantly reduce ensemble mean tropical cyclone track error.

Corresponding author address: Carolyn Reynolds, Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943-5502. E-mail: carolyn.reynolds@nrlmry.navy.mil

Abstract

The performance of the U.S. Navy global atmospheric ensemble prediction system is examined with a focus on tropical winds and tropical cyclone tracks. Ensembles are run at a triangular truncation of T119, T159, and T239, with 33, 17, and 9 ensemble members, respectively, to evaluate the impact of resolution versus the number of ensemble member tradeoffs on ensemble performance. Results indicate that the T159 and T239 ensemble mean tropical cyclone track errors are significantly smaller than those of the T119 ensemble out to 4 days. For ensemble forecasts of upper- and lower-tropospheric tropical winds, increasing resolution has only a small impact on ensemble mean root-mean-square error for wind speed, but does improve Brier scores for 10-m wind speed at the 5 m s−1 threshold. In addition to the resolution tests, modifications to the ensemble transform initial perturbation methodology and inclusion of stochastic kinetic energy backscatter are also evaluated. Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter substantially increases the ensemble spread and improves Brier scores in the tropics, but for the most part does not significantly reduce ensemble mean tropical cyclone track error.

Corresponding author address: Carolyn Reynolds, Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943-5502. E-mail: carolyn.reynolds@nrlmry.navy.mil
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