Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Monitoring and Predicting the Intraseasonal Variability of the East Asian–Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon

Hai Lin Atmospheric Numerical Weather Prediction Research, Environment Canada, Dorval, Québec, Canada

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00087.1
Page(s):
1124–1138
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Abstract

In this study, a new index is defined to capture the prominent northward propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in boreal summer in the East Asian and western North Pacific (EAWNP) region. It is based on the first two modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the combined fields of daily anomalies of zonally averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850) in the EAWNP region. These two EOFs are well separated from the rest of the modes, and their principal components (PCs) capture the intraseasonal variability. They are nearly in quadrature in both space and time and their combination reasonably well represents the northward propagation of the ISO. As no future information beyond the current date is required as in conventional time filtering, this ISO index can be used in real-time applications. This index is applied to the output of the 24-yr historical hindcast experiment using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model of Environment Canada to evaluate the forecast skill of the ISO of the EAWNP summer monsoon.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Hai Lin, RPN-A, Environment Canada, 2121 route Transcanadienne, Dorval QC H9P 1J3, Canada. E-mail: hai.lin@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

In this study, a new index is defined to capture the prominent northward propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in boreal summer in the East Asian and western North Pacific (EAWNP) region. It is based on the first two modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the combined fields of daily anomalies of zonally averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850) in the EAWNP region. These two EOFs are well separated from the rest of the modes, and their principal components (PCs) capture the intraseasonal variability. They are nearly in quadrature in both space and time and their combination reasonably well represents the northward propagation of the ISO. As no future information beyond the current date is required as in conventional time filtering, this ISO index can be used in real-time applications. This index is applied to the output of the 24-yr historical hindcast experiment using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model of Environment Canada to evaluate the forecast skill of the ISO of the EAWNP summer monsoon.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Hai Lin, RPN-A, Environment Canada, 2121 route Transcanadienne, Dorval QC H9P 1J3, Canada. E-mail: hai.lin@ec.gc.ca
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