Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Impact of Surface Parameter Uncertainties within the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System

Christophe Lavaysse Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

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Marco Carrera Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

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Stéphane Bélair Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

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Normand Gagnon Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

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Ronald Frenette Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

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Martin Charron Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

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M. K. Yau Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

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Print Publication:
01 May 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00354.1
Page(s):
1506–1526
Restricted access

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of uncertainties in surface parameter and initial conditions on numerical prediction with the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS). As part of this study, the Canadian version of the Interactions between Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface scheme has been coupled to Environment Canada’s numerical weather prediction model within the REPS. For 20 summer periods in 2009, stochastic perturbations of surface parameters have been generated in several experiments. Each experiment corresponds to 20 simulations differing by the perturbations at the initial time of one or several surface parameters or prognostic variables. The sensitivity to these perturbations is quantified especially for 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, cloud fraction, and precipitation up to 48-h lead time. Spatial variability of these sensitivities over the North American continent shows that soil moisture, albedo, leaf area index, and SST have the largest impacts on the screen-level variables. The temporal evolution of these sensitivities appears to be closely linked to the diurnal cycle of the boundary layer. The surface perturbations are shown to increase the ensemble spread of the REPS for all screen-level variables especially for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed during daytime. A preliminary study of the impact on the ensemble forecast has shown that the inclusion of the surface perturbations tends to significantly increase the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed skill.

Corresponding author address: Christophe Lavaysse, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal, QC H3A 2K6, Canada. E-mail: christophe.lavaysse@mcgill.ca

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of uncertainties in surface parameter and initial conditions on numerical prediction with the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS). As part of this study, the Canadian version of the Interactions between Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface scheme has been coupled to Environment Canada’s numerical weather prediction model within the REPS. For 20 summer periods in 2009, stochastic perturbations of surface parameters have been generated in several experiments. Each experiment corresponds to 20 simulations differing by the perturbations at the initial time of one or several surface parameters or prognostic variables. The sensitivity to these perturbations is quantified especially for 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, cloud fraction, and precipitation up to 48-h lead time. Spatial variability of these sensitivities over the North American continent shows that soil moisture, albedo, leaf area index, and SST have the largest impacts on the screen-level variables. The temporal evolution of these sensitivities appears to be closely linked to the diurnal cycle of the boundary layer. The surface perturbations are shown to increase the ensemble spread of the REPS for all screen-level variables especially for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed during daytime. A preliminary study of the impact on the ensemble forecast has shown that the inclusion of the surface perturbations tends to significantly increase the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed skill.

Corresponding author address: Christophe Lavaysse, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal, QC H3A 2K6, Canada. E-mail: christophe.lavaysse@mcgill.ca
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