The Impacts of Representing the Correlation of Errors in Radar Data Assimilation. Part I: Experiments with Simulated Background and Observation Estimates

Dominik Jacques McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Search for other papers by Dominik Jacques in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Isztar Zawadzki McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Search for other papers by Isztar Zawadzki in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

In radar data assimilation, statistically optimal analyses are sought by minimizing a cost function in which the variance and covariance of background and observation errors are correctly represented. Radar observations are particular in that they are often available at spatial resolution comparable to that of background estimates. Because of computational constraints and lack of information, it is impossible to perfectly represent the correlation of errors. In this study, the authors characterize the impact of such misrepresentations in an idealized framework where the spatial correlations of background and observation errors are each described by a homogeneous and isotropic exponential decay. Analyses obtained with perfect representation of correlations are compared to others obtained by neglecting correlations altogether. These two sets of analyses are examined from a theoretical and an experimental perspective. The authors show that if the spatial correlations of background and observation errors are similar, then neglecting the correlation of errors has a small impact on the quality of analyses. They suggest that the sampling noise, related to the precision with which analysis errors may be estimated, could be used as a criterion for determining when the correlations of errors may be omitted. Neglecting correlations altogether also yields better analyses than representing correlations for only one term in the cost function or through the use of data thinning. These results suggest that the computational costs of data assimilation could be reduced by neglecting the correlations of errors in areas where dense radar observations are available.

Corresponding author address: Dominik Jacques, McGill University, BH 945, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal QC H3A 0B9, Canada. E-mail: dominik.jacques@mail.mcgill.ca

Abstract

In radar data assimilation, statistically optimal analyses are sought by minimizing a cost function in which the variance and covariance of background and observation errors are correctly represented. Radar observations are particular in that they are often available at spatial resolution comparable to that of background estimates. Because of computational constraints and lack of information, it is impossible to perfectly represent the correlation of errors. In this study, the authors characterize the impact of such misrepresentations in an idealized framework where the spatial correlations of background and observation errors are each described by a homogeneous and isotropic exponential decay. Analyses obtained with perfect representation of correlations are compared to others obtained by neglecting correlations altogether. These two sets of analyses are examined from a theoretical and an experimental perspective. The authors show that if the spatial correlations of background and observation errors are similar, then neglecting the correlation of errors has a small impact on the quality of analyses. They suggest that the sampling noise, related to the precision with which analysis errors may be estimated, could be used as a criterion for determining when the correlations of errors may be omitted. Neglecting correlations altogether also yields better analyses than representing correlations for only one term in the cost function or through the use of data thinning. These results suggest that the computational costs of data assimilation could be reduced by neglecting the correlations of errors in areas where dense radar observations are available.

Corresponding author address: Dominik Jacques, McGill University, BH 945, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal QC H3A 0B9, Canada. E-mail: dominik.jacques@mail.mcgill.ca
Save
  • Bayley, G. V., and J. M. Hammersley, 1946: The “effective” number of independent observations in an autocorrelated time series. Suppl. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 8, 184197, doi:10.2307/2983560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berenguer, M., and I. Zawadzki, 2008: A study of the error covariance matrix of radar rainfall estimates in stratiform rain. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 10851101, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222134.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berenguer, M., and I. Zawadzki, 2009: A study of the error covariance matrix of radar rainfall estimates in stratiform rain. Part II: Scale dependence. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 800811, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222210.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berenguer, M., M. Surcel, I. Zawadzki, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2012: The diurnal cycle of precipitation from continental radar mosaics and numerical weather prediction models. Part II: Intercomparison among numerical models and with nowcasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 26892705, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00181.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bretherton, C. S., M. Widmann, V. P. Dymnikov, J. M. Wallace, and I. Bladé, 1999: The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J. Climate, 12, 19902009, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, K.-S., I. Zawadzki, M. K. Yau, and L. Fillion, 2009: Short-term forecasting of a midlatitude convective storm by the assimilation of single-Doppler radar observations. Mon. Wea. Rev.,137, 4115–4135, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2731.1.

  • Fabry, F., 1996: On the determination of scales ranges for precipitation fields. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 12 81912 826, doi:10.1029/96JD00718.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gaspari, G., and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 723757, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555417.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hollingsworth, A., and P. Lönnberg, 1986: The statistical structure of short-range forecast errors as determined from radiosonde data. Part I: The wind field. Tellus, 38A, 111136, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.1986.tb00460.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hosmer, D. W., Jr., S. Lemeshow, and S. May, 2008: Applied Survival Analysis: Regression Modeling of Time to Event Data. 2nd ed. Wiley, 416 pp.

  • Keeler, R. J., and S. M. Ellis, 2000: Observational error covariance matrices for radar data assimilation. Phys. Chem. Earth, Part B: Hydrol. Oceans Atmos., 25, 12771280, doi:10.1016/S1464-1909(00)00193-3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kiefer, J. C., 1953: Sequential minimax search for a maximum. Proc. Amer. Math. Soc., 4, 502–506.

  • Lilly, D. K., 1990: Numerical prediction of thunderstorms—Has its time come? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 779798, doi:10.1002/qj.49711649402.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Z. Q., and F. Rabier, 2002: The interaction between model resolution, observation resolution and observation density in data assimilation: A one-dimensional study. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 13671386, doi:10.1256/003590002320373337.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Z. Q., and F. Rabier, 2003: The potential of high-density observations for numerical weather prediction: A study with simulated observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 30133035, doi:10.1256/qj.02.170.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oliver, D., 1995: Moving averages for Gaussian simulation in two and three dimensions. Math. Geol., 27, 939960, doi:10.1007/BF02091660.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oliver, D., 1998: Calculation of the inverse of the covariance. Math. Geol., 30, 911933, doi:10.1023/A:1021734811230.

  • Purser, R. J., W.-S. Wu, D. F. Parrish, and N. M. Roberts, 2003: Numerical aspects of the application of recursive filters to variational statistical analysis. Part I: Spatially homogeneous and isotropic Gaussian covariances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1524–1535, doi:10.1175//1520-0493(2003)131<1524:NAOTAO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stratman, D. R., M. C. Coniglio, S. E. Koch, and M. Xue, 2013: Use of multiple verification methods to evaluate forecasts of convection from hot- and cold-start convection-allowing models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 119138, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00022.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, J., D. W. Flicker, and D. K. Lilly, 1991: Recovery of three-dimensional wind and temperature fields from simulated single-Doppler radar data. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 876890, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0876:ROTDWA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tarantola, A., 2005: Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter Estimation.SIAM, 358 pp.

  • Thiébaux, H. J., and F. W. Zwiers, 1984: The interpretation and estimation of effective sample size. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 800811, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0800:TIAEOE>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trefethen, L. N., and D. Bau, 1997: Numerical Linear Algebra.SIAM, 373 pp.

  • Ward, L. M., 2002: Dynamical Cognitive Science.The MIT Press, 371 pp.

  • Wilson, J. W., Y. Feng, M. Chen, and R. D. Roberts, 2010: Nowcasting challenges during the Beijing Olympics: Successes, failures, and implications for future nowcasting systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 16911714, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222417.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xu, Q., 2005: Representations of inverse covariances by differential operators. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 181198, doi:10.1007/BF02918508.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yaremchuk, M., and A. Sentchev, 2012: Multi-scale correlation functions associated with polynomials of the diffusion operator. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 19481953, doi:10.1002/qj.1896.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zawadzki, I., 1973: The loss of information due to finite sample volume in radar-measured reflectivity. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 683687, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0683:TLOIDT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zawadzki, I., 1982: The quantitative interpretation of weather radar measurements. Atmos.–Ocean, 20, 158180, doi:10.1080/07055900.1982.9649137.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zieba, A., 2010: Effective number of observations and unbiased estimators of variance for autocorrelated data—An overview. Metrol. Measure. Syst.,17, 3–16, doi:10.2478/v10178-010-0001-0.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 457 145 7
PDF Downloads 147 45 4