An Investigation of the Goshen County, Wyoming, Tornadic Supercell of 5 June 2009 Using EnKF Assimilation of Mobile Mesonet and Radar Observations Collected during VORTEX2. Part I: Experiment Design and Verification of the EnKF Analyses

James Marquis Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Search for other papers by James Marquis in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Yvette Richardson Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Search for other papers by Yvette Richardson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Paul Markowski Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Search for other papers by Paul Markowski in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
David Dowell NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by David Dowell in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Joshua Wurman Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Joshua Wurman in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Karen Kosiba Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Karen Kosiba in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Paul Robinson Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Paul Robinson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Glen Romine National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Glen Romine in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

High-resolution Doppler radar velocities and in situ surface observations collected in a tornadic supercell on 5 June 2009 during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are assimilated into a simulated convective storm using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). A series of EnKF experiments using a 1-km horizontal model grid spacing demonstrates the sensitivity of the cold pool and kinematic structure of the storm to the assimilation of these observations and to different model microphysics parameterizations. An experiment is performed using a finer grid spacing (500 m) and the most optimal data assimilation and model configurations from the sensitivity tests to produce a realistically evolving storm. Analyses from this experiment are verified against dual-Doppler and in situ observations and are evaluated for their potential to confidently evaluate mesocyclone-scale processes in the storm using trajectory analysis and calculations of Lagrangian vorticity budgets. In Part II of this study, these analyses will be further evaluated to learn the roles that mesocyclone-scale processes play in tornado formation, maintenance, and decay. The coldness of the simulated low-level outflow is generally insensitive to the choice of certain microphysical parameterizations, likely owing to the vast quantity of kinematic and in situ thermodynamic observations assimilated. The three-dimensional EnKF wind fields and parcel trajectories resemble those retrieved from dual-Doppler observations within the storm, suggesting that realistic four-dimensional mesocyclone-scale processes are captured. However, potential errors are found in trajectories and Lagrangian three-dimensional vorticity budget calculations performed within the mesocyclone that may be due to the coarse (2 min) temporal resolution of the analyses. Therefore, caution must be exercised when interpreting trajectories in this area of the storm.

Corresponding author address: James N. Marquis, The Pennsylvania State University, 503 Walker Bldg., University Park, PA 16802. E-mail: jmarquis@met.psu.edu

Abstract

High-resolution Doppler radar velocities and in situ surface observations collected in a tornadic supercell on 5 June 2009 during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are assimilated into a simulated convective storm using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). A series of EnKF experiments using a 1-km horizontal model grid spacing demonstrates the sensitivity of the cold pool and kinematic structure of the storm to the assimilation of these observations and to different model microphysics parameterizations. An experiment is performed using a finer grid spacing (500 m) and the most optimal data assimilation and model configurations from the sensitivity tests to produce a realistically evolving storm. Analyses from this experiment are verified against dual-Doppler and in situ observations and are evaluated for their potential to confidently evaluate mesocyclone-scale processes in the storm using trajectory analysis and calculations of Lagrangian vorticity budgets. In Part II of this study, these analyses will be further evaluated to learn the roles that mesocyclone-scale processes play in tornado formation, maintenance, and decay. The coldness of the simulated low-level outflow is generally insensitive to the choice of certain microphysical parameterizations, likely owing to the vast quantity of kinematic and in situ thermodynamic observations assimilated. The three-dimensional EnKF wind fields and parcel trajectories resemble those retrieved from dual-Doppler observations within the storm, suggesting that realistic four-dimensional mesocyclone-scale processes are captured. However, potential errors are found in trajectories and Lagrangian three-dimensional vorticity budget calculations performed within the mesocyclone that may be due to the coarse (2 min) temporal resolution of the analyses. Therefore, caution must be exercised when interpreting trajectories in this area of the storm.

Corresponding author address: James N. Marquis, The Pennsylvania State University, 503 Walker Bldg., University Park, PA 16802. E-mail: jmarquis@met.psu.edu
Save
  • Aksoy, A., D. C. Dowell, and C. Snyder, 2009: A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations. Part I: Storm-scale analyses. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 18051824.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Anderson, J. L., 2001: An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 28842903.

  • Anderson, J. L., 2009: Spatially and temporally varying adaptive covariance inflation for ensemble filters. Tellus,61, 72–83.

  • Anderson, J. L., T. Hoar, K. Raeder, H. Liu, N. Collins, R. Torn, and A. Avellano, 2009: The Data Assimilation Research Testbed: A community facility. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 12831296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Annan, J. D., J. C. Hargreaves, N. R. Edwards, and R. Marsh, 2005: Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Modell., 8,135154.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brandes, E. A., 1977: Flow in severe thunderstorms observed by dual-Doppler radar. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 113120.

  • Brandes, E. A., 1981: Finescale structure of the Del City–Edmund tornadic mesocirculation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 635647.

  • Brandes, E. A., 1984: Vertical vorticity generation and mesocyclone sustenance in tornadic thunderstorms: The observational evidence. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 22532269.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell III, and J. Cooper, 1994: On the environments of tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 606618.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dahl, J. M., M. D. Parker, and L. J. Wicker, 2012: Uncertainties in trajectory calculations within near-surface mesocyclones of simulated supercells. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 29592966.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davies-Jones, R., and H. E. Brooks, 1993: Mesocyclogenesis from a theoretical perspective. The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 79, Amer. Geophys. Union, 105–114.

  • Dawson, D. T. II, M. Xue, J. Milbrandt, and M. K. Yau, 2010: Comparison of evaporation and cold pool development between single-moment and multimoment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized simulations of tornadic thunderstorms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 11521171.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dawson, D. T. II, L. J. Wicker, and E. R. Mansell, 2012: Impact of the environmental low-level wind profile on ensemble forecasts of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, tornadic storm and associated mesocyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 696716.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dowell, D. C., and H. B. Bluestein, 2002: The 8 June 1995 McLean, Texas, storm. Part II: Cyclic tornado formation, maintenance, and dissipation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 26492670.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dowell, D. C., and L. J. Wicker, 2009: Additive noise for storm-scale ensemble data assimilation. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26, 911927.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dowell, D. C., F. Zhang, L. J. Wicker, C. Snyder, and N. A. Crook, 2004: Wind and temperature retrievals in the 17 May 1981 Arcadia, Oklahoma, supercell: Ensemble Kalman filter experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 19822005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dowell, D. C., L. J. Wicker, and C. Snyder, 2011: Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of radar observations of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma supercell: Influences of reflectivity observations on storm-scale analyses. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 272294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K. A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, 580 pp.

  • Gaspari, G., and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 723757.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gilmore, M. S., J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen, 2004: Precipitation and evolution sensitivity in simulated deep convective storms: Comparisons between liquid-only and simple ice and liquid phase microphysics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 18971916.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jung, Y., M. Xue, and M. Tong, 2012: Ensemble Kalman filter analyses of the 29–30 May 2004 Oklahoma tornadic thunderstorm using one- and two-moment bulk microphysics schemes, with verification against polarimetric radar data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 14571475.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kosiba, K., J. Wurman, Y. Richardson, P. Markowski, P. Robinson, and J. Marquis, 2012: Genesis of the Goshen County, Wyoming tornado on 5 June 2009 during VORTEX2. Mon. Wea. Rev.,141, 1157–1181.

  • Lin, Y., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville, 1983: Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 10651092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Markowski, P. M., 2002: Hook echoes and rear-flank downdrafts: A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 852876.

  • Markowski, P. M., J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen, 2002: Direct surface thermodynamic observations within the rear-flank downdrafts of nontornadic and tornadic supercells. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 16921721.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Markowski, P. M., J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen, 2003: Tornadogenesis resulting from the transport of circulation by a downdraft: Idealized numerical simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 795823.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Markowski, P. M., and Coauthors, 2012a: The pretornadic phase of the Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell of 5 June 2009 intercepted by VORTEX2. Part I: Evolution of kinematic and surface thermodynamic fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 28872915.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Markowski, P. M., Y. Richardson, J. Marquis, J. Wurman, K. Kosiba, P. Robinson, E. Rasmussen, and D. Dowell, 2012b: The pretornadic phase of the Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell of 5 June 2009 intercepted by VORTEX2. Part II: Intensification of low-level rotation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 29162938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marquis, J., Y. Richardson, P. Markowski, D. Dowell, and J. Wurman, 2012: Tornado maintenance investigated with high-resolution dual-Doppler and EnKF analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 327.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mashiko, W., H. Niino, and T. Kato, 2009: Numerical simulation of tornadogenesis in an outer-rainband minisupercell of Typhoon Shanshan on 17 September 2006. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 42384260.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milbrandt, J. A., and M. K. Yau, 2005a: A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part I: Analysis of the role of the spectral shape parameter. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 30513064.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milbrandt, J. A., and M. K. Yau, 2005b: A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part II: A proposed three-moment closure and scheme description. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 30653081.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morrison, H., and J. Milbrandt, 2011: Comparison of the two-moment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized supercell thunderstorm simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 11031130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morrison, H., J. A. Curry, and V. I. Khvorostyanov, 2005: A new double-moment microphysics parameterization for application in cloud and climate models. Part I: Description. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 16651677.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Noda, A. T., and H. Niino, 2010: A numerical investigation of a supercell tornado: Genesis and vorticity budget. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 88, 135159.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, R., and Coauthors, 2009: Weather education at the University of Oklahoma—An integrated approach. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 12771282.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Potvin, C. K., and L. J. Wicker, 2012: Comparison between dual-Doppler and EnKF storm-scale wind analyses: Observing system simulation experiments with a supercell thunderstorm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 39723991.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ray, P. S., C. L. Ziegler, W. Bumgarner, and R. J. Serafin, 1980: Single- and multiple-Doppler radar observations of tornadic storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 16071625.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Richardson, Y., P. M. Markowski, J. Wurman, K. Kosiba, P. Robinson, and J. Marquis, 2012: The Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell of 5 June 2009 intercepted by VORTEX2: Tornado dissipation phase. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6.6. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/25SLS/webprogram/Paper176231.html.]

  • Rotunno, R., and J. Klemp, 1985: On the rotation and propagation of simulated supercell thunderstorms. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 271292.

  • Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Posers, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note TN-468+STR, 88 pp.

  • Snyder, C., and F. Zhang, 2003: Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 16631677.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Straka, J. M., E. N. Rasmussen, and S. E. Fredrickson, 1996: A mobile mesonet for finescale meteorological observations. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 13, 921936.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, J., and N. A. Crook, 2001: Real-time low-level wind and temperature analysis using single WSR-88D data. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 117132.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tanamchi, R. L., L. J. Wicker, D. C. Dowell, H. B. Bluestein, D. T. Dawson, and M. Xue, 2012: EnKF assimilation of high-resolution, mobile Doppler radar data of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, supercell into a numerical cloud model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,141, 625–648.

  • Wakimoto, R. M., and C. Liu, 1998: The Garden City, Kansas, storm during VORTEX 95. Part II: The wall cloud and tornado. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 393408.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Waugh, S., and S. E. Fredrickson, 2010: An improved aspirated temperature system for mobile meteorological observations, especially in severe weather. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.2. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/25SLS/webprogram/Paper176205.html.]

  • Weiss, C. C., and J. L. Schroeder, 2008: StickNet: A new portable, rapidly deployable surface observation system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 15021503.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wicker, L. J., and R. B. Wilhelmson, 1995: Simulation and analysis of tornado development and decay within a three-dimensional supercell thunderstorm. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 26752703.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wurman, J., J. M. Straka, E. N. Rasmussen, M. Randall, and A. Zahrai, 1997: Design and deployment of a portable, pencil-beam, pulsed, 3-cm Doppler radar. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 14, 15021512.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wurman, J., D. Dowell, Y. Richardson, P. Markowski, E. Rasmussen, D. Burgess, L. Wicker, and H. Bluestein, 2012: The Second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment: VORTEX2. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 11471170.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yussouf, N., and D. J. Stensrud, 2012: Comparison of single-parameter and multiparameter ensembles for assimilation of radar observations using the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 562586.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and J. Sun, 2004: Impacts of initial estimate and observation availability on convective-scale data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 12381253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 338 105 7
PDF Downloads 216 71 4