Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

On the Significance of Multiple Consecutive Days of Tornado Activity

Robert J. Trapp Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00347.1
Page(s):
1452–1459
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Abstract

Motivated by the temporal behavior of recent high-end tornado events, a 30-yr historical record of tornadoes in the United States is examined for multiple-day periods of tornado activity. Comprising the 3129 tornado days during 1983–2012 are 1406 unique, nonoverlapping periods. Only 24% of these periods have lengths of 3 or more days. However, the conditional probability of such a multiday period given an outbreak day (OB; one with 20 or more tornado reports) is 74%, and given a significant tornado day [SIGTOR; one rated Fujita/enhanced Fujita (F/EF) ≥ 3] is 60%. Alternative ways of expressing these conditional probabilities all lead to the conclusion that SIGTORs and/or OBs are more likely to be contained within multiday periods of tornadoes than within 1–2-day periods. Two additional conclusions are offered: 1) SIGTORs and OBs have a relatively higher likelihood of occurrence during the latter half of the multiday periods, and 2) multiday periods have a relatively higher likelihood of occurrence during the warm months of April–July. A hypothesized connection, illustrated using reanalysis data from 2013, is proposed between such behaviors and the characteristics of the larger-scale meteorological forcing. Some speculations are made about possible relationships between multiday periods of tornado activity and convective feedbacks, extended predictability, and modes of internal climate variability.

Corresponding author address: Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, 550 Stadium Mall Dr., West Lafayette, IN 47906. E-mail: jtrapp@purdue.edu

Abstract

Motivated by the temporal behavior of recent high-end tornado events, a 30-yr historical record of tornadoes in the United States is examined for multiple-day periods of tornado activity. Comprising the 3129 tornado days during 1983–2012 are 1406 unique, nonoverlapping periods. Only 24% of these periods have lengths of 3 or more days. However, the conditional probability of such a multiday period given an outbreak day (OB; one with 20 or more tornado reports) is 74%, and given a significant tornado day [SIGTOR; one rated Fujita/enhanced Fujita (F/EF) ≥ 3] is 60%. Alternative ways of expressing these conditional probabilities all lead to the conclusion that SIGTORs and/or OBs are more likely to be contained within multiday periods of tornadoes than within 1–2-day periods. Two additional conclusions are offered: 1) SIGTORs and OBs have a relatively higher likelihood of occurrence during the latter half of the multiday periods, and 2) multiday periods have a relatively higher likelihood of occurrence during the warm months of April–July. A hypothesized connection, illustrated using reanalysis data from 2013, is proposed between such behaviors and the characteristics of the larger-scale meteorological forcing. Some speculations are made about possible relationships between multiday periods of tornado activity and convective feedbacks, extended predictability, and modes of internal climate variability.

Corresponding author address: Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, 550 Stadium Mall Dr., West Lafayette, IN 47906. E-mail: jtrapp@purdue.edu
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