Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model

Baoqiang Xiang * NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Shian-Jiann Lin NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

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Ming Zhao * NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Shaoqing Zhang NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

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Gabriel Vecchi NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

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Tim Li International Pacific Research Center, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Xianan Jiang Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California

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Lucas Harris NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

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Jan-Huey Chen * NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Feb 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1
Page(s):
524–535
Restricted access

Abstract

While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The “beyond weather time scale” predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model’s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy’s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan’s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.

Corresponding author address: Baoqiang Xiang, GFDL, UCAR, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ 08540. E-mail: baoqiang.xiang@noaa.gov

Abstract

While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The “beyond weather time scale” predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model’s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy’s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan’s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.

Corresponding author address: Baoqiang Xiang, GFDL, UCAR, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ 08540. E-mail: baoqiang.xiang@noaa.gov
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