The Impacts of Representing the Correlation of Errors in Radar Data Assimilation. Part II: Model Output as Background Estimates

Dominik Jacques McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada

Search for other papers by Dominik Jacques in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Isztar Zawadzki McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada

Search for other papers by Isztar Zawadzki in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

In data assimilation, analyses are generally obtained by combining a “background,” taken from a previously initiated model forecast, with observations from different instruments. For optimal analyses, the error covariance of all information sources must be properly represented. In the case of radar data assimilation, such representation is of particular importance since measurements are often available at spatial resolutions comparable to that of the model grid. Unfortunately, misrepresenting the covariance of radar errors is unavoidable as their true structure is unknown. This two-part study investigates the impacts of misrepresenting the covariance of errors when dense observations, such as radar data, are available. Experiments are performed in an idealized context. In Part I, analyses were obtained by using artificially simulated background and observation estimates. For the second part presented here, background estimates from a convection-resolving model were used. As before, analyses were generated with the same input data but with different misrepresentation of errors. The impacts of these misrepresentations can be quantified by comparing the two sets of analyses. It was found that the correlation of both the background and observation errors had to be represented to improve the quality of analyses. Of course, the concept of “errors” depends on how the “truth” is considered. When the truth was considered as an unknown constant, as opposed to an unknown random variable, background errors were found to be biased. Correcting these biases was found to significantly improve the quality of analyses.

Corresponding author address: Dominik Jacques, McGill University, BH 945, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada. E-mail: dominik.jacques@mail.mcgill.ca

Abstract

In data assimilation, analyses are generally obtained by combining a “background,” taken from a previously initiated model forecast, with observations from different instruments. For optimal analyses, the error covariance of all information sources must be properly represented. In the case of radar data assimilation, such representation is of particular importance since measurements are often available at spatial resolutions comparable to that of the model grid. Unfortunately, misrepresenting the covariance of radar errors is unavoidable as their true structure is unknown. This two-part study investigates the impacts of misrepresenting the covariance of errors when dense observations, such as radar data, are available. Experiments are performed in an idealized context. In Part I, analyses were obtained by using artificially simulated background and observation estimates. For the second part presented here, background estimates from a convection-resolving model were used. As before, analyses were generated with the same input data but with different misrepresentation of errors. The impacts of these misrepresentations can be quantified by comparing the two sets of analyses. It was found that the correlation of both the background and observation errors had to be represented to improve the quality of analyses. Of course, the concept of “errors” depends on how the “truth” is considered. When the truth was considered as an unknown constant, as opposed to an unknown random variable, background errors were found to be biased. Correcting these biases was found to significantly improve the quality of analyses.

Corresponding author address: Dominik Jacques, McGill University, BH 945, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada. E-mail: dominik.jacques@mail.mcgill.ca
Save
  • Aksoy, A., D. C. Dowell, and C. Snyder, 2010: A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations. Part II: Short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 12731292, doi:10.1175/2009MWR3086.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bayley, G. V., and J. M. Hammersley, 1946: The “effective” number of independent observations in an autocorrelated time series. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 8 (Suppl.), 184197, doi:10.2307/2983560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berenguer, M., M. Surcel, I. Zawadzki, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2012: The diurnal cycle of precipitation from continental radar mosaics and numerical weather prediction models. Part II: Intercomparison among numerical models and with nowcasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 26892705, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00181.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caumont, O., V. Ducrocq, É. Wattrelot, G. Jaubert, and S. Pradier-Vabre, 2010: 1D+3DVar assimilation of radar reflectivity data: A proof of concept. Tellus,62A, 173–187, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v62i2.15678.

  • Chang, W., K.-S. Chung, L. Fillion, and S.-J. Baek, 2014: Radar data assimilation in the Canadian high-resolution ensemble Kalman filter system: Performance and verification with real summer cases. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 21182138, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00291.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, K.-S., I. Zawadzki, M. K. Yau, and L. Fillion, 2009: Short-term forecasting of a midlatitude convective storm by the assimilation of single–Doppler radar observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 41154135, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2731.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, K.-S., W. Chang, L. Fillion, and M. Tanguay, 2013: Examination of situation-dependent background error covariances at the convective scale in the context of the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 33693387, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00353.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fabry, F., 2006: The spatial variability of moisture in the boundary layer and its effect on convection initiation: Project-long characterization. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 7991, doi:10.1175/MWR3055.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gaspari, G., and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 723757, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555417.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jacques, D., and I. Zawadzki, 2014: The impacts of representing the correlation of errors in radar data assimilation. Part I: Experiments with simulated background and observation estimates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 39984016, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00104.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lewis, J. M., S. Lakshmivarahan, and S. Dhall, 2006: Dynamic Data Assimilation: A Least Squares Approach. Cambridge University Press, 680 pp.

  • Murphy, J. M., 1988: The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 463493, doi:10.1002/qj.49711448010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oliver, D., 1995: Moving averages for Gaussian simulation in two and three dimensions. Math. Geol., 27, 939960, doi:10.1007/BF02091660.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oliver, D., 1998: Calculation of the inverse of the covariance. Math. Geol., 30, 911933, doi:10.1023/A:1021734811230.

  • Purser, R. J., W.-S. Wu, D. F. Parrish, and N. M. Roberts, 2003: Numerical aspects of the application of recursive filters to variational statistical analysis. Part I: Spatially homogeneous and isotropic Gaussian covariances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1524, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1524:NAOTAO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rennie, S. J., S. L. Dance, A. J. Illingworth, S. P. Ballard, and D. Simonin, 2011: 3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high-resolution model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 11481163, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3482.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005: A description of the advanced research WRF version 2. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-468+STR, 88 pp. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v2.pdf.]

  • Snook, N., M. Xue, and Y. Jung, 2011: Analysis of a tornadic mesoscale convective vortex based on ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of CASA X-band and WSR-88D radar data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 34463468, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05053.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sobash, R. A., and D. J. Stensrud, 2013: The impact of covariance localization for radar data on EnKF analyses of a developing MCS: Observing system simulation experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 36913709, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00203.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stratman, D. R., M. C. Coniglio, S. E. Koch, and M. Xue, 2013: Use of multiple verification methods to evaluate forecasts of convection from hot- and cold-start convection-allowing models. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 119138, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00022.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, J., 2004: Numerical prediction of thunderstorms: Fourteen years later. Atmospheric Turbulence and Mesoscale Meteorology, E. Fedorovich, R. Rotuno, and B. Stevens, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 139–164.

  • Sun, J., and Coauthors, 2014: Use of NWP for nowcasting convective precipitation: Recent progress and challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 409426, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00263.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Talagrand, O., and R. Vautard, 1999: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 125.

  • Tarantola, A., 2005: Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter Estimation. SIAM, 358 pp.

  • Wang, H., J. Sun, X. Zhang, X.-Y. Huang, and T. Auligné, 2013: Radar data assimilation with WRF 4D-Var. Part I: System development and preliminary testing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 22242244, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00168.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilson, J. W., Y. Feng, M. Chen, and R. D. Roberts, 2010: Nowcasting challenges during the Beijing Olympics: Successes, failures, and implications for future nowcasting systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 16911714, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222417.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xu, Q., 2005: Representations of inverse covariances by differential operators. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 181198, doi:10.1007/BF02918508.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yaremchuk, M., and A. Sentchev, 2012: Multi-scale correlation functions associated with polynomials of the diffusion operator. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 19481953, doi:10.1002/qj.1896.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zieba, A., 2010: Effective number of observations and unbiased estimators of variance for autocorrelated data—An overview. Metrol.Measure. Syst., 17, 3–16, doi:10.2478/v10178-010-0001-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 476 215 66
PDF Downloads 159 37 5