Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh

Stanley G. Benjamin NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Stephen S. Weygandt NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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John M. Brown NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Ming Hu NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Curtis R. Alexander NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Tatiana G. Smirnova NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Joseph B. Olson NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Eric P. James NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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David C. Dowell NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Georg A. Grell NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Haidao Lin NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Steven E. Peckham NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Tracy Lorraine Smith NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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William R. Moninger NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Jaymes S. Kenyon NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Geoffrey S. Manikin NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0242.1
Page(s):
1669–1694
Restricted access

Abstract

The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly updated assimilation and modeling system for the United States for situational awareness and related decision-making has continued to increase for various applications including aviation (and transportation in general), severe weather, and energy. The RAP is distinct from the previous RUC in three primary aspects: a larger geographical domain (covering North America), use of the community-based Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (ARW) replacing the RUC forecast model, and use of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI) instead of the RUC three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). As part of the RAP development, modifications have been made to the community ARW model (especially in model physics) and GSI assimilation systems, some based on previous model and assimilation design innovations developed initially with the RUC. Upper-air comparison is included for forecast verification against both rawinsondes and aircraft reports, the latter allowing hourly verification. In general, the RAP produces superior forecasts to those from the RUC, and its skill has continued to increase from 2012 up to RAP version 3 as of 2015. In addition, the RAP can improve on persistence forecasts for the 1–3-h forecast range for surface, upper-air, and ceiling forecasts.

Additional affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado.

Additional affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Corresponding author address: Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, R/GSD1, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328. E-mail: stan.benjamin@noaa.gov

Abstract

The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly updated assimilation and modeling system for the United States for situational awareness and related decision-making has continued to increase for various applications including aviation (and transportation in general), severe weather, and energy. The RAP is distinct from the previous RUC in three primary aspects: a larger geographical domain (covering North America), use of the community-based Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (ARW) replacing the RUC forecast model, and use of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI) instead of the RUC three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). As part of the RAP development, modifications have been made to the community ARW model (especially in model physics) and GSI assimilation systems, some based on previous model and assimilation design innovations developed initially with the RUC. Upper-air comparison is included for forecast verification against both rawinsondes and aircraft reports, the latter allowing hourly verification. In general, the RAP produces superior forecasts to those from the RUC, and its skill has continued to increase from 2012 up to RAP version 3 as of 2015. In addition, the RAP can improve on persistence forecasts for the 1–3-h forecast range for surface, upper-air, and ceiling forecasts.

Additional affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado.

Additional affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Corresponding author address: Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, R/GSD1, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328. E-mail: stan.benjamin@noaa.gov
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