Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Role of Unresolved Clouds on Short-Range Global Horizontal Irradiance Predictability

Pedro A. Jiménez Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Stefano Alessandrini Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Sue Ellen Haupt Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Aijun Deng Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

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Branko Kosovic Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Jared A. Lee Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Luca Delle Monache Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Sep 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0104.1
Page(s):
3099–3107
Restricted access

Abstract

The shortwave radiative impacts of unresolved cumulus clouds are investigated using 6-h ensemble simulations performed with the WRF-Solar Model and high-quality observations over the contiguous United States for a 1-yr period. The ensembles use the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) to account for implicit model uncertainty. Results indicate that parameterizing the radiative effects of both deep and shallow cumulus clouds is necessary to largely reduce (55%) a systematic overprediction of the global horizontal irradiance. Accounting for the model’s effective resolution is necessary to mitigate the underdispersive nature of the ensemble and provide meaningful quantification of the short-range prediction uncertainties.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Pedro A. Jiménez, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3450 Mitchell Ln., Boulder, CO 80301. E-mail: jimenez@ucar.edu

Abstract

The shortwave radiative impacts of unresolved cumulus clouds are investigated using 6-h ensemble simulations performed with the WRF-Solar Model and high-quality observations over the contiguous United States for a 1-yr period. The ensembles use the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) to account for implicit model uncertainty. Results indicate that parameterizing the radiative effects of both deep and shallow cumulus clouds is necessary to largely reduce (55%) a systematic overprediction of the global horizontal irradiance. Accounting for the model’s effective resolution is necessary to mitigate the underdispersive nature of the ensemble and provide meaningful quantification of the short-range prediction uncertainties.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Pedro A. Jiménez, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3450 Mitchell Ln., Boulder, CO 80301. E-mail: jimenez@ucar.edu
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