Interactions of North Pacific Tropical, Midlatitude, and Polar Disturbances Resulting in Linked Extreme Weather Events over North America in October 2007

Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Search for other papers by Lance F. Bosart in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Benjamin J. Moore Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Search for other papers by Benjamin J. Moore in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jason M. Cordeira Department of Atmospheric Science and Chemistry, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, New Hampshire

Search for other papers by Jason M. Cordeira in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Heather M. Archambault NOAA/OAR Climate Program Office, Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Heather M. Archambault in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

This study uses observations and model reanalyses to examine the multiscale processes associated with four high-impact extreme weather events (EWEs) over North America during late October 2007. The EWEs consisted of wind-driven wildfires in California, prolonged anomalous cold conditions in Mexico linked to two cold surges, heavy rainfall in the eastern United States, and severe flood-producing heavy rainfall in southern Mexico. The EWEs involved a pronounced large-scale flow reconfiguration across the North Pacific and North America in conjunction with the formation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train. The flow reconfiguration involved perturbations to the North Pacific jet stream linked to polar, midlatitude, and tropical disturbances, including three tropopause-level polar disturbances originating over northeastern Asia, transient extratropical cyclones, a diabatic Rossby vortex, and western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kajiki. Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics indicate that ridge amplification within the wave train was enhanced in connection with latent heat release along warm conveyor belts rooted in the tropics and subtropics over the North Pacific. Two anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events over North America established synoptic-scale conditions that supported the EWEs. The results highlight how the large- and synoptic-scale flow can evolve to facilitate multiple geographically separated but dynamically linked EWEs. Based on the results, it is posited that during autumn the North Pacific jet stream may be particularly conducive to large-scale flow amplification, possibly resulting in EWEs, in response to perturbations associated with tropical, midlatitude, and polar disturbances.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0230.s1.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author e-mail: Lance F. Bosart, lbosart@albany.edu

Abstract

This study uses observations and model reanalyses to examine the multiscale processes associated with four high-impact extreme weather events (EWEs) over North America during late October 2007. The EWEs consisted of wind-driven wildfires in California, prolonged anomalous cold conditions in Mexico linked to two cold surges, heavy rainfall in the eastern United States, and severe flood-producing heavy rainfall in southern Mexico. The EWEs involved a pronounced large-scale flow reconfiguration across the North Pacific and North America in conjunction with the formation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train. The flow reconfiguration involved perturbations to the North Pacific jet stream linked to polar, midlatitude, and tropical disturbances, including three tropopause-level polar disturbances originating over northeastern Asia, transient extratropical cyclones, a diabatic Rossby vortex, and western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kajiki. Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics indicate that ridge amplification within the wave train was enhanced in connection with latent heat release along warm conveyor belts rooted in the tropics and subtropics over the North Pacific. Two anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events over North America established synoptic-scale conditions that supported the EWEs. The results highlight how the large- and synoptic-scale flow can evolve to facilitate multiple geographically separated but dynamically linked EWEs. Based on the results, it is posited that during autumn the North Pacific jet stream may be particularly conducive to large-scale flow amplification, possibly resulting in EWEs, in response to perturbations associated with tropical, midlatitude, and polar disturbances.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0230.s1.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author e-mail: Lance F. Bosart, lbosart@albany.edu

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (GZ 435.87 MB)
Save
  • Abatzoglou, J. T., R. Barbero, and N. J. Nauslar, 2013: Diagnosing Santa Ana winds in Southern California with synoptic-scale analysis. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 704710, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-13-00002.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Agusti-Panareda, A., C. D. Thorncroft, G. C. Craig, and S. L. Gray, 2004: The extratropical transition of Hurricane Irene (1999): A potential-vorticity perspective. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 10471074, doi:10.1256/qj.02.140.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aiyyer, A., 2015: Recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones and midlatitude predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 77997807, doi:10.1002/2015GL065082.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Anwender, D., P. A. Harr, and S. C. Jones, 2008: Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 32263247, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2249.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aparicio, J., P. F. Martínez-Austria, A. Güitrón, and A. I. Ramírez, 2009: Floods in Tabasco, Mexico: A diagnosis and proposal for courses of action. J. Flood Risk Manage., 2, 132138, doi:10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01026.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Appenzeller, C., and H. C. Davies, 1992: Structure of stratospheric intrusions into the troposphere. Nature, 358, 570572, doi:10.1038/358570a0.

  • Archambault, H. M., L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. M. Cordeira, 2013: A climatological analysis of the extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 23252346, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00257.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Archambault, H. M., D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis, and J. M. Cordeira, 2015: A composite perspective of the extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 11221141, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00270.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Atallah, E. H., and L. F. Bosart, 2003: The extratropical transition and precipitation distribution of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 10631081, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1063:TETAPD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boettcher, M., and H. Wernli, 2011: Life cycle study of a diabatic Rossby wave as a precursor to rapid cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic—Dynamics and forecast performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 18611878, doi:10.1175/2011MWR3504.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boettcher, M., and H. Wernli, 2013: A 10-yr climatology of diabatic Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 11391154, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00012.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boettcher, M., and H. Wernli, 2015: Diabatic Rossby waves in the Southern Hemisphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 31063117, doi:10.1002/qj.2595.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bosart, L. F., J. M. Cordeira, T. J. Galarneau Jr., B. J. Moore, and H. M. Archambault, 2012: An analysis of multiple predecessor rain events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10–15 September 2008. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 10811107, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00163.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brennan, M. J., H. D. Cobb III, and R. D. Knabb, 2010: Observations of Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events from QuikSCAT: An updated event climatology and operational model evaluation. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 646658, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222324.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, 2007: California fire siege 2007: An overview. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, 109 pp. [Available online at http://www.fire.ca.gov/fire_protection/downloads/siege/2007/Overview_CompleteFinal.pdf.]

  • Carlson, T. N., 1980: Airflow through midlatitude cyclones and the comma cloud pattern. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 14981509, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1498:ATMCAT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cavallo, S. M., and G. J. Hakim, 2009: Potential vorticity diagnosis of a tropopause polar cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 13581371, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2670.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cavallo, S. M., and G. J. Hakim, 2010: Composite structure of tropopause polar cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 38403857, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3371.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cavallo, S. M., and G. J. Hakim, 2012: Radiative impact on tropopause polar vortices over the Arctic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 16831702, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00182.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cavallo, S. M., and G. J. Hakim, 2013: Physical mechanism of tropopause polar vortex intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 33593373, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-088.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., 2005: The impact of wave packets propagating across Asia on Pacific cyclone development. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 19982015, doi:10.1175/MWR2953.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., and I. Orlanski, 1993: On the dynamics of a storm track. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 9991015, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<0999:OTDOAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., and D. B. Yu, 1999: Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 17081728, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<1708:COWPIT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1995: The structure and evolution of cold surges east of the Rocky Mountains. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 25772610, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2577:TSAEOC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cordeira, J. M., and L. F. Bosart, 2010: The antecedent large-scale conditions of the “Perfect Storms” of late October and early November 1991. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 25462569, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3280.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cordeira, J. M., F. M. Ralph, and B. J. Moore, 2013: The development and evolution of two atmospheric rivers in proximity to western North Pacific tropical cyclones in October 2010. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 42344255, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00019.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dickinson, M. J., L. F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken, G. J. Hakim, D. M. Schultz, M. A. Bedrick, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The March 1993 Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and convective-scale flow interaction and model performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 30413072, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3041:TMSCIP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dirmeyer, P. A., and J. L. Kinter, 2010: Floods over the U.S. Midwest: A regional water cycle perspective. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 1172118, doi:10.1175/2010JHM1196.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Draxler, R. R., and G. D. Hess, 1998: An overview of the HYSPLIT_4 modeling system of trajectories, dispersion, and deposition. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 47, 295308.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Enomoto, T., W. Ohfuchi, H. Nakamura, and M. A. Shapiro, 2007: Remote effects of tropical storm Cristobal upon a cut-off cyclone over Europe in August 2002. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 96, 2942, doi:10.1007/s00703-006-0219-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fore, A. G., B. W. Stiles, A. H. Chau, B. A. Williams, R. S. Dunbar, and E. Rodriguez, 2014: Point-wise wind retrieval and ambiguity removal improvements for the QuikSCAT climatological data set. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 52, 5159, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2012.2235843.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Galarneau, T. J., L. F. Bosart, and R. S. Schumacher, 2010: Predecessor rain events ahead of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 32723297, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3243.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Galarneau, T. J., T. M. Hamill, R. M. Dole, and J. Perlwitz, 2012: A multiscale analysis of the extreme weather events over western Russia and northern Pakistan during July 2010. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 16391664, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00191.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Glatt, I., and V. Wirth, 2014: Identifying Rossby wave trains and quantifying their properties. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 384396, doi:10.1002/qj.2139.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., and H. M. Archambault, 2016: The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: A representative case study of weather systems surrounding western North Pacific extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 38473869, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0419.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., and S. R. Blumer, 2015: European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011). Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 87388748, doi:10.1002/2015GL066253.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., and Coauthors, 2011: The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: A North Atlantic case-study. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 21742193, doi:10.1002/qj.891.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., S. C. Jones, C. A. Davis, P. A. Harr, and M. Weissmann, 2013: The impact of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on the midlatitude flow. Part I: Upper-level ridgebuilding and modification of the jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 21482164, doi:10.1002/qj.2091.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., S. T. K. Lang, and J. H. Keller, 2015: A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 95219529, doi:10.1002/2015GL065764.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Griffin, K. S., and L. F. Bosart, 2014: The extratropical transition of Tropical Cyclone Edisoana (1990). Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 27722793, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00282.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hakim, G. J., 2003: Developing wave packets in the North Pacific storm track. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 28242837, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2824:DWPITN>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hakim, G. J., and A. K. Canavan, 2005: Observed cyclone–anticyclone tropopause vortex asymmetries. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 231240, doi:10.1175/JAS-3353.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamill, T. M., G. T. Bates, J. S. Whitaker, D. R. Murray, M. Fiorino, T. J. Galarneau, Y. Zhu, and W. Lapenta, 2013: NOAA’s second-generation global medium-range ensemble reforecast dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 15531565, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00014.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Handlos, Z., and J. Martin, 2016: Composite analysis of large-scale environments conducive to West Pacific polar/subtropical jet superposition. J. Climate, 29, 71457165, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0044.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harr, P. A., and J. M. Dea, 2009: Downstream development associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 12951319, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2558.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harr, P. A., D. Anwender, and S. C. Jones, 2008: Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Methodology and a case study of Typhoon Nabi (2005). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 32053225, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2248.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hart, R. E., and R. H. Grumm, 2001: Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 24262442, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2426:UNCATR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., M. E. McIntyre, and A. W. Robertson, 1985: On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877946, doi:10.1002/qj.49711147002.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, C., Y.-L. Lin, M. L. Kaplan, and J. J. Charney, 2009: Synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments conducive to forest fires during the October 2003 extreme fire event in Southern California. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 553579, doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1818.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hughes, M., and A. Hall, 2010: Local and synoptic mechanisms causing Southern California’s Santa Ana winds. Climate Dyn., 34, 847857, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0650-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, S. C., and Coauthors, 2003: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 10521092, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keeley, J. E., H. Safford, C. J. Fotheringham, J. Franklin, and M. Moritz, 2009: The 2007 southern California wildfires: Lessons in complexity. J. For., 107, 287296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keller, J. H., S. C. Jones, and P. A. Harr, 2014: An eddy kinetic energy view of physical and dynamical processes in distinct forecast scenarios for the extratropical transition of two tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 27512771, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00219.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein, P. M., P. A. Harr, and R. L. Elsberry, 2000: Extratropical transition of western North Pacific tropical cyclones: An overview and conceptual model of the transformation stage. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 373395, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0373:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 363376, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knapp, K. R., and Coauthors, 2011: Globally gridded satellite observations for climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 893907, doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3039.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knippertz, P., and J. E. Martin, 2005: Tropical plumes and extreme precipitation in subtropical and tropical West Africa. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 23372365, doi:10.1256/qj.04.148.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, S., and I. M. Held, 1993: Baroclinic wave packets in models and observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 14131428, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1413:BWPIMA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, Y., and K. E. Mitchell, 2005: The NCEP Stage II/IV hourly precipitation analyses: Development and applications. 19th Conf. on Hydrology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/83847.pdf.]

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1955: Available potential energy and the maintenance of the general circulation. Tellus, 7A, 157167, doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1955.tb01148.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madonna, E., S. Limbach, C. Aebi, H. Joos, H. Wernli, and O. Martius, 2014a: On the co-occurrence of warm conveyor belt outflows and PV streamers. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 36683673, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0119.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madonna, E., H. Wernli, H. Joos, and O. Martius, 2014b: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part I: Climatology and potential vorticity evolution. J. Climate, 27, 326, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madonna, E., M. Boettcher, C. M. Grams, H. Joos, O. Martius, and H. Wernli, 2015: Verification of North Atlantic warm conveyor belt outflows in ECMWF forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 13331344, doi:10.1002/qj.2442.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Martínez-Alvarado, O., E. Madonna, S. L. Gray, and H. Joos, 2016: A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 196210, doi:10.1002/qj.2645.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Martius, O., E. Zenklusen, C. Schwierz, and H. C. Davies, 2006: Episodes of Alpine heavy precipitation with an overlying elongated stratospheric intrusion: A climatology. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 11491164, doi:10.1002/joc.1295.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Martius, O., C. Schwierz, and H. C. Davies, 2008: Far-upstream precursors of heavy precipitation events on the Alpine south-side. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 417428, doi:10.1002/qj.229.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Martius, O., C. Schwierz, and H. C. Davies, 2010: Tropopause-level waveguides. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 866879, doi:10.1175/2009JAS2995.1.

  • Martius, O., and Coauthors, 2013: The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 17801797, doi:10.1002/qj.2082.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Massacand, A. C., H. Wernli, and H. C. Davies, 1998: Heavy precipitation on the alpine southside: An upper-level precursor. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 14351438, doi:10.1029/98GL50869.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Massacand, A. C., H. Wernli, and H. C. Davies, 2001: Influence of upstream diabatic heating upon an alpine event of heavy precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 28222828, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2822:IOUDHU>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McIntyre, M. E., and T. Palmer, 1983: Breaking planetary waves in the stratosphere. Nature, 305, 593600, doi:10.1038/305593a0.

  • McIntyre, M. E., and T. Palmer, 1984: The surf zone in the stratosphere. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 46, 825849, doi:10.1016/0021-9169(84)90063-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. H. Atallah, 2007: Hurricane Katrina (2005). Part II: Evolution and hemispheric impacts of a diabatically generated warm pool. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 39273949, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2096.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, B. J., P. J. Neiman, F. M. Ralph, and F. E. Barthold, 2012: Physical processes associated with heavy flooding rainfall in Nashville, Tennessee, and vicinity during 1–2 May 2010: The role of an atmospheric river and mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 358378, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00126.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, B. J., L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. L. Jurewicz, 2013: Synoptic-scale environments of predecessor rain events occurring east of the Rocky Mountains in association with Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 10221047, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00178.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, R. W., and M. T. Montgomery, 2004: Reexamining the dynamics of short-scale, diabatic Rossby waves and their role in midlatitude moist cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 754768, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0754:RTDOSD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, R. W., and M. T. Montgomery, 2005: Analysis of an idealized, three-dimensional diabatic Rossby vortex: A coherent structure of the moist baroclinic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 27032725, doi:10.1175/JAS3472.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and R. J. Lefevre, 1996: Piecewise tendency diagnosis of dynamical processes governing the development of an upper-tropospheric mobile trough. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 31203142, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3120:PTDODP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA/USDA, 2007: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. Vol. 94, No. 24, 24 pp. [Available online at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/weather_weekly//2000s/2007/weather_weekly-10-31-2007.pdf.]

  • Orlanski, I., and E. K. M. Chang, 1993: Ageostrophic geopotential fluxes in downstream and upstream development of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 212225, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<0212:AGFIDA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Orlanski, I., and J. P. Sheldon, 1995: Stages in the energetics of baroclinic systems. Tellus, 47A, 605628, doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.00108.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pantillon, F. P., J.-P. Chaboureau, P. J. Mascart, and C. Lac, 2013: Predictability of a Mediterranean tropical-like storm downstream of the extratropical transition of Hurricane Helene (2006). Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 19431962, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00164.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pantillon, F. P., J.-P. Chaboureau, and E. Richard, 2015: Remote impact of North Atlantic hurricanes on the Mediterranean during episodes of intense rainfall in autumn 2012. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 967978, doi:10.1002/qj.2419.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Parker, T. J., G. J. Berry, and M. J. Reeder, 2014: The structure and evolution of heat waves in southeastern Australia. J. Climate, 27, 57685785, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00740.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pfahl, S., E. Madonna, M. Boettcher, H. Joos, and H. Wernli, 2014: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture origin and relevance for precipitation. J. Climate, 27, 2740, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00223.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Quinting, J. F., and S. C. Jones, 2016: On the impact of tropical cyclones on Rossby wave packets: A climatological perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 20212048, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00298.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Raphael, M. N., 2003: The Santa Ana Winds of California. Earth Interact., 7, doi:10.1175/1087-3562(2003)007<0001:TSAWOC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Raymond, D. J., and H. Jiang, 1990: A theory for long-lived mesoscale convective systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 30673077, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<3067:ATFLLM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Riemer, M., and S. C. Jones, 2010: The downstream impact of tropical cyclones on a developing baroclinic wave in idealized scenarios of extratropical transition. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 617637, doi:10.1002/qj.605.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Riemer, M., S. C. Jones, and C. A. Davis, 2008: The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: An idealized modelling study with a straight jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 6991, doi:10.1002/qj.189.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rivera-Trejo, F., G. Soto-Cortés, and B. Méndez-Antonio, 2010: The 2007 flood in Tabasco, Mexico: An integral analysis of a devastating phenomenon. Int. J. River Basin Manage., 8, 255267, doi:10.1080/15715124.2010.508746.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodwell, M. J., and Coauthors, 2013: Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather forecasts for Europe. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 13931405, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 10151057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schultz, D. M., W. E. Bracken, L. F. Bosart, G. J. Hakim, M. A. Bedrick, M. J. Dickinson, and K. R. Tyle, 1997: The 1993 Superstorm cold surge: Frontal structure, gap flow, and tropical impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 539, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0005:TSCSFS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shapiro, M., and Coauthors, 1999: A planetary-scale to mesoscale perspective of the life cycles of extratropical cyclones: The bridge between theory and observations. The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones, M. A. Shapiro and S. Grønås, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 139–185.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Shapiro, M. A., T. Hampel, and A. J. Krueger, 1987: The Arctic tropopause fold. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 444454, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<0444:TATF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simmons, A. J., and B. J. Hoskins, 1979: The downstream and upstream development of unstable baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 12391254, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1239:TDAUDO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Small, I. J., 1995: Santa Ana winds and the fire outbreak of fall 1993. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS WR-230, 48 pp.

  • Sodemann, H., and A. Stohl, 2013: Moisture origin and meridional transport in atmospheric rivers and their association with multiple cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 28502868, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00256.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sprenger, M., O. Martius, and J. Arnold, 2013: Cold surge episodes over southeastern Brazil—A potential vorticity perspective. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 27582767.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Steenburgh, W. J., D. M. Schultz, and B. A. Colle, 1998: The structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 26732691, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2673:TSAEOG>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stein, A. F., R. R. Draxler, G. D. Rolph, B. J. B. Stunder, M. D. Cohen, and F. Ngan, 2015: NOAA’s HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 20592077, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00110.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Steinschneider, S., and U. Lall, 2015: Daily precipitation and tropical moisture exports across the eastern United States: An application of archetypal analysis to identify spatiotemporal structure. J. Climate, 28, 85858602, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0340.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stoelinga, M. T., 1996: A potential vorticity–based study of the role of diabatic heating and friction in a numerically simulated baroclinic cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 849874, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0849:APVBSO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thorncroft, C. D., B. J. Hoskins, and M. E. McIntyre, 1993: Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 1755, doi:10.1002/qj.49711950903.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thornton, P. E., S. W. Running, and M. A. White, 1997: Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J. Hydrol., 190, 214251, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03128-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Torn, R. D., 2010: Diagnosis of the downstream ridging associated with extratropical transition using short-term ensemble forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 817833, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3093.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, 2015: Comparison of wave packets associated with extratropical transition and winter cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 17821803, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00006.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Torn, R. D., J. S. Whitaker, P. Pegion, T. M. Hamill, and G. J. Hakim, 2015: Diagnosis of the source of GFS medium-range track errors in Hurricane Sandy (2012). Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 132152, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00086.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD, 2016: The NCAR Command Language (version 6.3.0), doi:10.5065/D6WD3XH5.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Wernli, B. H., and H. C. Davies, 1997: A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. I: The method and some applications. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 467489, doi:10.1002/qj.49712353811.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wernli, H., and M. Sprenger, 2007: Identification and ERA-15 climatology of potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs near the extratropical tropopause. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 15691586, doi:10.1175/JAS3912.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Westerling, A. L., D. R. Cayan, T. J. Brown, B. L. Hall, and L. G. Riddle, 2004: Climate, Santa Ana winds and autumn wildfires in Southern California. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 85, 289296, doi:10.1029/2004EO310001.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wiegand, L., A. Twitchett, C. Schwierz, and P. Knippertz, 2011: Heavy precipitation at the Alpine south side and Saharan dust over central Europe: A predictability study using TIGGE. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 957974, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-10-05060.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Winters, A. C., and J. E. Martin, 2014: The role of a polar/subtropical jet superposition in the May 2010 Nashville flood. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 954974, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-13-00124.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 3919 2980 126
PDF Downloads 738 138 15