Abstract
A convective-scale static background-error covariance (BEC) matrix is further developed to include the capability of direct reflectivity assimilation and evaluated within the GSI-based three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and hybrid ensemble–variational (EnVar) methods. Specific developments are summarized as follows: 1) Control variables (CVs) are extended to include reflectivity, vertical velocity, and all hydrometeor types. Various horizontal momentum and moisture CV options are included. 2) Cross correlations between all CVs are established. 3) A storm intensity-dependent binning method is adopted to separately calculate static error matrices for clear-air and storms with varying intensities. The resultant static BEC matrices are simultaneously applied at proper locations guided by the observed reflectivity. 4) The EnVar is extended to adaptively incorporate static BECs based on the quality of ensemble covariances. Evaluation and examination of the new static BECs are first performed on the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City supercell. Detailed diagnostics and 3DVar examinations suggest zonal/meridional winds and pseudo–relative humidity are selected as horizontal momentum and moisture CVs for direct reflectivity assimilation, respectively; inclusion of cross correlations favors spin up and maintains the analyzed storms; application of binning improves characteristics and persistence of the simulated storm. Relative to an experiment using the full ensemble BECs (Exp-PureEnVar), incorporating static BECs in hybrid EnVar reduces spinup time and better analyzes reflectivity distributions while the background ensemble is deficient in sampling errors. Compared to both pure 3DVar and Exp-PureEnVar, hybrid EnVar better predicts reflectivity distributions and better maintains a strong mesocyclone. Further examination through the 20 May 2013 Oklahoma supercells confirms these results and additionally demonstrates the effectiveness of adaptive hybridization.
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