NUMERICAL TROPOSPHERIC PREDICTION WITH A DIVERGENT BAROTROPIC MODEL

G. J. HALTINER U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif.

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LT. HARRY E. NICHOLSON Fleet Numerical Weather Facility, Monterey, Calif.

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LT. WINSLOW B. OAKES U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif.

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Abstract

An empirically adjusted equation based primarily on Árnason's quasi-barotropic stratified model is used to predict the heights of the 300-, 500-, 700- and 850-mb. levels. The model shows moderate success and appears to fulfill its intended aim of providing useful prediction of the movement of pressure systems. No mechanism is provided for significant development and this mainly accounts for the errors in prediction.

Abstract

An empirically adjusted equation based primarily on Árnason's quasi-barotropic stratified model is used to predict the heights of the 300-, 500-, 700- and 850-mb. levels. The model shows moderate success and appears to fulfill its intended aim of providing useful prediction of the movement of pressure systems. No mechanism is provided for significant development and this mainly accounts for the errors in prediction.

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