PREDICTION OF HURRICANE MOTION BY STATISTICAL METHODS

BANNER I. MILLER National Hurricane Research Laboratory, Environmental Science Services Administration, Miami, Fla.

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PETER P. CHASE National Hurricane Research Laboratory, Environmental Science Services Administration, Miami, Fla.

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Abstract

Equations for the prediction of hurricane tracks have been developed by use of statistical methods. Data at sea level, 700 mb., and 500 mb. were selected as predictors. Forecasts are prepared in 12-hr. steps for periods up to 48 hr. The forecast equations have been tested on an operational basis during the 1964 and 1965 hurricane seasons. The accuracy of these forecasts compares favorably with that of other standard hurricane forecast techniques.

Abstract

Equations for the prediction of hurricane tracks have been developed by use of statistical methods. Data at sea level, 700 mb., and 500 mb. were selected as predictors. Forecasts are prepared in 12-hr. steps for periods up to 48 hr. The forecast equations have been tested on an operational basis during the 1964 and 1965 hurricane seasons. The accuracy of these forecasts compares favorably with that of other standard hurricane forecast techniques.

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