CLIMATOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE BRIER P-SCORE

HARRY R. GLAHN Techniques Development Laboratory, Weather Bureau, ESSA, Silver Spring, Md.

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DONALD L. JORGENSEN Techniques Development Laboratory, Weather Bureau, ESSA, Silver Spring, Md.

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Abstract

The P-score has come into widespread usage for the evaluation of probability forecasts of weather events. Verification data for operational Weather Bureau forecasts of probability of precipitation are used to study the tendency for the P-score to be a function of the precipitation climatology of the place for which the forecasts are made. It is found that simple models which give an expected P-score as a function of climatology can be useful in comparing different sets of forecasts and in assessing the general level of skill of the operational probability forecasts made by the Weather Bureau.

Abstract

The P-score has come into widespread usage for the evaluation of probability forecasts of weather events. Verification data for operational Weather Bureau forecasts of probability of precipitation are used to study the tendency for the P-score to be a function of the precipitation climatology of the place for which the forecasts are made. It is found that simple models which give an expected P-score as a function of climatology can be useful in comparing different sets of forecasts and in assessing the general level of skill of the operational probability forecasts made by the Weather Bureau.

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