Abstract
Interannual-to-decadal variability of ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere was examined using data from the 1980s to the 2000s in a box inverse model to estimate transport across hydrographic sections and three ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). The westerly wind stress over the OGCM Southern Ocean showed a steady increase of 5%–8% decade−1. The meridional overturning circulation was quantified by the transport across 30°S. The OGCMs suggested a slight strengthening [from 0.2 ± 1.0 to 0.8 ± 1.3 Sv decade−1 (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)] of the upper meridional cell (Deacon cell) and two OGCMs showed a weakening (−0.8 ± 0.6 and −1.0 ± 0.3 Sv decade−1) of the lower meridional [Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] cell, partly explained by contraction of the AABW volume. The box inverse estimates did not contradict these two findings. For Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport, quantified by zonal transport across four key sections, the box inverse model estimated a decrease of 5–21 Sv. Decomposition of the decrease into baroclinic transport by the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts, barotropic transport, and others shows that the decrease is mostly due to barotropic transport and transport carried by the flow north of the Subantarctic Front and south of the Polar Front. In the OGCMs, the variability of transport across key sections is often correlated with transport carried by a flow south of the Polar Front and with the southern annular mode index. In all models, then, the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, defined as the transport carried by the fronts, has not decreased significantly over the study period.
