• Adam, B., 1998: Timescapes of Modernity: The Environment and Invisible Hazards. Routledge, 256 pp.

  • Ahlqvist, T., M. Halonen, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari, J. Kohl, R. Koivisto, J. Myllyoja, and N. Wessberg, 2012: Systematic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces: Constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. Technol. Anal. Strategic Manage., 24, 821841, https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715490.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub, 2019: Community-based observations of changes in the seasonal cycle in Alaska’s Arctic. AAOKH, accessed 24 November 2019, https://arctic-aok.org/the-seasonal-cycle/.

  • Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, 2020: Center for climate and health: Assessment reports archive. ANTHC, accessed 4 April 2021, https://anthc.org/what-we-do/community-environment-and-health/center-for-climate-and-health/climate-health-3/.

  • Alaska Ocean Observing System, 2020: Community-based monitoring. AOOS, accessed 1 August 2020, https://aoos.org/alaska-community-based-monitoring/resources/.

  • Allo, P., 2007: Logical pluralism and semantic information. J. Philos. Log., 36, 659694, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10992-007-9054-2.

  • Anderson, B., 2010: Preemption, precaution, preparedness: Anticipatory action and future geographies. Prog. Hum. Geogr., 34, 777798, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132510362600.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S, 2021: Sea ice for walrus outlook. ARCUS, accessed 29 May 2021, https://www.arcus.org/siwo.

  • Bacon, J. M., 2019: Settler colonialism as eco-social structure and the production of colonial ecological violence. Environ. Sociol., 5, 5969, https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2018.1474725.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bahnke, M., V. Korthuis, A. Philemonoff, M. Johnson, and M. Flannery, 2020a: The need for co-productive approaches to research planning in the Bering Sea. Kawerak Corr., 6 pp., https://kawerak.org/download/august-2020-bering-sea-research-letter/.

  • Bahnke, M., V. Korthuis, A. Philemonoff, and M. Johnson, 2020b: Navigating the new Arctic program: Comment on behalf of Association of Village Council Presidents, Kawerak, Inc., Bering Sea Elders Group, and Aleut Community of St. Paul Tribal Government. Kawerak Corr., 10 pp., https://kawerak.org/download/navigating-the-new-arctic-program-comment-letter/.

  • Baker, Z., 2020: Agricultural capitalism, climatology and the “stabilization” of climate in the United States, 1850–1920. Br. J. Sociol., 72, 379396, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12762.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baker, Z., J. Ekstrom, and L. Bedsworth, 2018: Climate information? Embedding climate futures within temporalities of California water management. Environ. Sociol., 4, 419433, https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2018.1455123.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bell, C. A., N. A. Stout, T. R. Bender, C. S. Conroy, W. E. Crouse, and J. R. Myers, 1990: Fatal occupational injuries in the United States, 1980 through 1985. JAMA, 263, 30473050, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1990.03440220071032.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bostrom, A., R. E. Morss, J. K. Lazo, J. L. Demuth, H. Lazrus, and R. Hudson, 2015: A mental models study of hurricane forecast and warning production, communication, and decision-making. Wea. Climate Soc., 8, 111129, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0033.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brinkman, T. J., W. D. Hansen, F. S. Chapin III, G. Kofinas, S. BurnSilver, and T. S. Rupp, 2016: Arctic communities perceive climate impacts on access as a critical challenge to availability of subsistence resources. Climatic Change, 139, 413427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1819-6.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brown, Z. W., and K. R. Arrigo, 2013: Sea ice impacts on spring bloom dynamics and net primary production in the eastern Bering Sea. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 4362, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008034.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Butts, D., and H. Adams, 2020: Weather contracts: Capturing a sense of weather for place-based adaptation to climate change. Global Environ. Change, 63, 102052, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102052.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Callison, C., 2020: The twelve-year warning. Isis, 111, 129137, https://doi.org/10.1086/707823.

  • Carothers, C., 2015: Fisheries privatization, social transitions, and well-being in Kodiak, Alaska. Mar. Policy, 61, 313322, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2014.11.019.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carothers, C., and et al. , 2012: Fishing People of the North: Cultures, Economies, and Management Responding to Change. Sea Grant Alaska, 297 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chisholm Hatfield, S., E. Marino, K. P. Whyte, K. D. Dello, and P. W. Mote, 2018: Indian time: Time, seasonality, and culture in traditional ecological knowledge of climate change. Ecol. Process., 7, 25, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-018-0136-6.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cochran, P., O. H. Huntington, C. Pungowiyi, S. Tom, F. S. Chapin, H. P. Huntington, N. G. Maynard, and S. F. Trainor, 2013: Indigenous frameworks for observing and responding to climate change in Alaska. Climatic Change, 120, 557567, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0735-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Crane, T. A., C. Roncoli, J. Paz, N. Breuer, K. Broad, K. T. Ingram, and G. Hoogenboom, 2010: Forecast skill and farmers’ skills: Seasonal climate forecasts and agricultural risk management in the southeastern United States. Wea. Climate Soc., 2, 4459, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WCAS1006.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Crate, S. A., 2011: Climate and culture: Anthropology in the era of contemporary climate change. Annu. Rev. Anthropol., 40, 175194, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.anthro.012809.104925.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Daipha, P., 2015: Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth. University of Chicago Press, 280 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dedoose, 2018: Version 8.0.35. SocioCultural Research Consultants, www.dedoose.com.

  • Deemer, G. J., and et al. , 2017: Broadening the sea-ice forecaster toolbox with community observations: A case study from the northern Bering Sea. Arct. Sci., 4, 4270, https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2016-0054.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demuth, B., 2019: Floating Coast: An Environmental History of the Bering Strait. Oxford University Press, 416 pp.

  • Druckenmiller, M. L., H. Eicken, J. C. George, and L. Brower, 2013: Trails to the whale: Reflections of change and choice on an Iñupiat icescape at Barrow, Alaska. Polar Geogr., 36, 529, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2012.724459.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eicken, H., M. Kaufman, I. Krupnik, P. Pulsifer, L. Apangalook, P. Apangalook, W. Weyapuk, and J. Leavitt, 2014: A framework and database for community sea ice observations in a changing Arctic: An Alaskan prototype for multiple users. Polar Geogr., 37, 527, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2013.873090.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elliot, H. W., 1906: Our Arctic Province, Alaska, and the Seal Islands. Scribner, 473 pp.

  • Elliott, R., 2018: The sociology of climate change as a sociology of loss. Eur. J. Sociol, 59, 301337, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003975618000152.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emerson, R. M., R. I. Fretz, and L. W. Shaw, 2011: Writing Ethnographic Fieldnotes. Chicago University Press, 320 pp.

  • Endfield, G., 2021: Future weather: Imagining and articulating uncertainty. Futures, S. Kemp and J. Andersson, Eds., Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198806820.001.0001.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge in the Arctic, 2019: ELOKA in-depth. Accessed 3 June 2020, https://eloka-arctic.org/about-in-depth.

  • Fine, G. A., 2007: Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction. University of Chicago Press, 280 pp.

  • First Alaskans Institute, 2017: First Alaskans Institute strategic plan, 2017-2021. First Alaskans Institute Doc., 2 pp., https://firstalaskans.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/First-Alaskans-Institute-2017-2021-Strategic-Plan.pdf.

  • Fissel, B. M., 2021: Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report for the groundfish fisheries of the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands area: Economic status of the groundfish fisheries off Alaska, 2019. NOAA Fisheries Rep., 271 pp., https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2020/econGroundfishSafe.pdf.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Gearheard, S., and et al. , 2006: “It’s not that simple”: A collaborative comparison of sea ice environments, their uses, observed changes, and adaptations in Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada. Ambio, 35, 203211, https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[203:INTSAC]2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gearheard, S., M. Pocernich, R. Stewart, J. Sanguya, and H. P. Huntington, 2010: Linking Inuit knowledge and meteorological station observations to understand changing wind patterns at Clyde River, Nunavut. Climatic Change, 100, 267294, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9587-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Golinski, J., 2003: Time, talk, and the weather in eighteenth-century Britain. Weather, Climate, Culture, S. Strauss and B. S. Orlove, Eds., Berg, 17–38.

  • Grinëv, A. V., 2018: Russian Colonization of Alaska: Preconditions, Discovery, and Initial Development, 1741–1799. University of Nebraska Press, 354 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Haavisto, R., M. Lamers, R. Thoman, D. Liggett, J. Carrasco, J. Dawson, G. Ljubicic, and E. Stewart, 2020: Mapping weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information providers in Polar regions: Who are they and who do they serve? Polar Geogr., 43, 120138, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707320.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hall, J. R., 2016: Social futures of global climate change: A structural phenomenology. Amer. J. Cult. Sociol., 4 (1), 145, https://doi.org/10.1057/ajcs.2015.12.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, J. W., 2005: Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 360B, 20372047, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1747.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harjanne, A., 2017: Servitizing climate science: Institutional analysis of climate services discourse and its implications. Global Environ. Change, 46, 116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.008.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hathaway, J., 2021: Tipping points: Scandies Rose hearings bring to light weak links in industry practices. National Fisherman, accessed 5 April 2021, https://www.nationalfisherman.com/alaska/tipping-points-scandies-rose-hearings-bring-to-light-weak-links-in-industry-practices.

  • Henson, R., 2010: Weather on the Air: A History of Broadcast Meteorology. American Meteorological Society, 241 pp.

  • Himes-Cornell, A., and K. Hoelting, 2015: Resilience strategies in the face of short- and long-term change: Out-migration and fisheries regulation in Alaskan fishing communities. Ecol. Soc., 20, 9, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07074-200209.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hobday, A. J., C. M. Spillman, J. Paige Eveson, and J. R. Hartog, 2016: Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fish. Oceanogr., 25, 4556, https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12083.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hovey, D., 2020: Storm causes coastal erosion, sometimes severe, across Bering Strait region. Anchorage Daily News, accessed 12 January 2021, https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2020/11/11/storm-causes-coastal-erosion-sometimes-severe-across-bering-strait-region/.

  • Hulme, M., 2016: Weathered: Cultures of Climate. Sage, 200 pp.

  • Hunt, G. L., P. J. Stabeno, S. Strom, and J. M. Napp, 2008: Patterns of spatial and temporal variation in the marine ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea, with special reference to the Pribilof Domain. Deep-Sea Res. II, 55, 19191944, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.04.032.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huntington, H. P., and et al. , 2013: Local and traditional knowledge regarding the Bering Sea ecosystem: Selected results from five Indigenous communities.Deep-Sea Res. II, 94, 323332, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.04.025.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. V. Masson-Delmotte et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 630 pp., https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_Low_Res.pdf.

  • Jeuring, J., M. Knol-Kauffman, and A. Sivle, 2020: Toward valuable weather and sea-ice services for the marine Arctic: Exploring user–producer interfaces of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Polar Geogr., 43, 139159, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1679270.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johnson, T., 2016: Climate Change and Alaska Fisheries. Alaska Sea Grant, 30 pp, https://doi.org/10.4027/ccaf.2016.

  • Kettle, N. P., S. F. Trainor, and P. A. Loring, 2017: Conceptualizing the science-practice interface: Lessons from a collaborative network on the front-line of climate change. Front. Environ. Sci., 5, 33, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00033.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klemm, T., and R. A. McPherson, 2017: The development of seasonal climate forecasting for agricultural producers. Agric. For. Meteor., 232, 384399, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.09.005.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kohlhoff, D., 1995: When the Wind was a River: Aleut Evacuation in World War II. University of Washington Press, 234 pp.

  • Krupnik, I., C. Aporta, S. Gearheard, S. Laidler, G. J. Kielsen, and L. Holm, Eds., 2010: SIKU: Knowing our Ice: Documenting Inuit Sea Ice Knowledge and Use. Springer, 454 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Labe, Z., G. Magnusdottir, and H. Stern, 2018a: Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness using PIOMAS and the CESM large ensemble. J. Climate, 31, 32333247, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0436.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Labe, Z., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir, 2018b: Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 56355642, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078158.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, M., 1998: The Alaska Commercial Company: The formative years. Pac. Northwest Quart., 89 (2), 5964, https://www.washington.edu/uwired/outreach/cspn/Website/PNQ/PNQ%20Back%20Issues.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lincoln, J. M., and G. A. Conway, 1997: Commercial fishing fatalities in Alaska: Risk factors and prevention strategies. NIOSH Publ. 97-163, https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/97-163/default.html.

  • Livingstone, D. N., 2015: The climate of war: Violence, warfare and climatic reductionism. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 6, 437444, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lockie, S., 2013: Climate, scenario-building and governance: Comprehending the temporalities of socio-ecological change. Routledge International Handbook of Social and Environmental Change, S. Lockie, D. Sonnenfeld, and D. R. Fisher, Eds., Routledge, 95–105.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Loring, P. A., S. C. Gerlach, and H. J. Penn, 2016: “Community work” in a climate of adaptation: Responding to change in rural Alaska. Hum. Ecol., 44, 119128, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-015-9800-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lovett, R., V. Lee, T. Kukutai, S. C. Rainie, and J. Walker, 2019: Good data practices for Indigenous data sovereignty and governance. Good Data, A. Daly, K. Devitt and M. Mann, Eds., Institute of Network Cultures Inc., 26–36, http://networkcultures.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Good_Data.pdf.

  • Maldonado, J. K., B. Colombi, and R. Pandya, Eds., 2014: Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Impacts, Experiences and Actions. Springer, 174 pp., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05266-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manrique, D. R., S. Corral, and Â. Guimarães Pereira, 2018: Climate-related displacements of coastal communities in the Arctic: Engaging traditional knowledge in adaptation strategies and policies. Environ. Sci. Policy, 85, 90100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.04.007.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marcus, G. E., 1995: Ethnography in/of the world system: The emergence of multi-sited ethnography. Annu. Rev. Anthropol., 24, 95117, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.an.24.100195.000523.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marino, E., 2012: The long history of environmental migration: Assessing vulnerability construction and obstacles to successful relocation in Shishmaref, Alaska. Global Environ. Change, 22, 374381, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.016.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Markon, C., and et al. , 2018: Alaska: Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States. Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, D. R. Reidmiller et al., Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 1185–1241, https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH26.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • McCartney, A. P., and D. W. Veltre, 1999: Aleutian island prehistory: Living in insular extremes. World Archaeol., 30, 503515, https://doi.org/10.1080/00438243.1999.9980426.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meredith, M., and et al. , 2019: Polar regions. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, H.-O. Pörtner, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 203–320, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/07_SROCC_Ch03_FINAL.pdf.

  • Mesquita, M. D. S., D. E. Atkinson, and K. I. Hodges, 2010: Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska. J. Climate, 23, 294311, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3019.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mische, A., 2009: Projects and possibilities: Researching futures in action. Sociol. Forum, 24, 694704, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1573-7861.2009.01127.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moerlein, K. J., and C. Carothers, 2012: Total environment of change: Impacts of climate change and social transitions on subsistence fisheries in northwest Alaska. Ecol. Soc., 17, 10, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04543-170110.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morss, R. E., and et al. , 2017: Hazardous weather prediction and communication in the modern information environment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 26532674, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0058.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Munshi, D., P. Kurian, J. Foran, and K.-K. Bhavnani, 2019: The future is ours to seek: Changing the inevitability of climate change to the prospects of hope and justice. Climate Futures: Re-Imagining Global Climate Justice, D. Munshi et al., Eds., Zed, 1–8.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2018: Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences within the Weather Enterprise. The National Academies Press, 198 pp., https://doi.org/10.17226/24865.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Transportation Safety Board, 2018: Marine accident brief: Capsizing and sinking of fishing vessel Destination. NTSB Rep. NTSB/MAB-18/14, 24 pp., https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/MAB1814.pdf.

  • Norgaard, K. M., 2019: Salmon and Acorns Feed Our People: Colonialism, Nature and Social Action. Rutgers University Press, 312 pp.

  • North Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2017: Ten-year program review for the Crab Rationalization Management Program in the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands. NPFMC Doc., 249 pp., https://www.npfmc.org/wp-content/PDFdocuments/catch_shares/Crab/Crab10yrReview_Final2017.pdf.

  • NWS, 2013: National Weather Service Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap, version 2.0. NOAA Doc., 81 pp., https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/nws_wrn_roadmap_final_april17.pdf.

  • NWS, 2018: Service description document: Impact-based decision support services for NWS core partners. NOAA Doc., 24 pp., https://www.weather.gov/media/coo/IDSS_SDD_V1_0.pdf.

  • NWS, 2019: Building a weather-ready nation: 2019–2022 strategic plan. NOAA Doc., 28 pp., https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/NWS_Weather-Ready-Nation_Strategic_Plan_2019-2022.pdf.

  • Patel, J. K., and H. Fountain, 2017: As Arctic ice vanishes, new shipping routes open. New York Times, accessed 8 July 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/03/science/earth/arctic-shipping.html.

  • Pietruska, J. L., 2011: US Weather Bureau Chief Willis Moore and the reimagination of uncertainty in long-range forecasting. Environ. Hist., 17, 79105, https://doi.org/10.3197/096734011X12922359172970.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pietruska, J. L., 2017: Looking Forward: Prediction and Uncertainty in Modern America. Chicago University Press, 288 pp.

  • Pingree-Shippee, K. A., N. J. Shippee, and D. E. Atkinson, 2016: Overview of Bering and Chukchi Sea wave states for four severe storms following common synoptic tracks. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 33, 283302, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0153.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Potter, S., S. Harrison, and P. Kreft, 2021: The benefits and challenges of implementing impact-based severe weather warning systems: Perspectives of weather, flood, and emergency management personnel. Wea. Climate Soc., 13, 303314, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0110.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pulsifer, P., S. Gearheard, H. P. Huntington, M. A. Parsons, C. McNeave, and H. S. McCann, 2012: The role of data management in engaging communities in Arctic research: Overview of the Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic (ELOKA). Polar Geogr., 35, 271290, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2012.708364.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Raymond-Yakoubian, J., and R. Daniel, 2018: An Indigenous approach to ocean planning and policy in the Bering Strait region of Alaska. Mar. Policy, 97, 101108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.08.028.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reedy, K. L., and M. E. Lowe, 2017: Aleut ethnography in transition: In memory of Dorothy Jones. Arctic Anthropol., 54, 6171, https://doi.org/10.3368/aa.54.1.61.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Robards, M. D., H. P. Huntington, M. Druckenmiller, J. Lefevre, S. K. Moses, Z. Stevenson, A. Watson, and M. Williams, 2018: Understanding and adapting to observed changes in the Alaskan Arctic: Actionable knowledge co-production with Alaska Native communities.Deep-Sea Res. II, 152, 203213, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2018.02.008.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sepez, J., C. Package, P. E. Malcolm, and A. Poole, 2007: Unalaska, Alaska: Memory and denial in the globalization of the Aleutian landscape. Polar Geogr., 30, 193209, https://doi.org/10.1080/10889370701742977.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sherman-Morris, K., 2005: Tornadoes, television and trust—A closer look at the influence of the local weathercaster during severe weather. Global Environ. Change, 6B, 201210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2006.10.002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sidon, E., and S. Zador, Eds., 2019: Eastern Bering Sea. NOAA/Alaska Fisheries Science Center Ecosystem Status Rep., 222 pp., https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/REFM/REEM/ecoweb/pdf/2019EBSecosys.pdf.

  • Slats, R., and et al. , 2019: Voices from the front lines of a changing Bering Sea. Arctic Report Card 2019, J. Richter-Menge, M. L. Druckenmiller, and M. Jeffries, Eds., NOAA, 88–94, https://arctic.noaa.gov/Portals/7/ArcticReportCard/Documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2019.pdf?ver=2019-12-09-155151-807.

  • Stevenson, T. C., J. Davies, H. P. Huntington, and W. Sheard, 2019: An examination of trans-Arctic vessel routing in the central Arctic Ocean. Mar. Policy, 100, 8389, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.11.031.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Struzik, E., 2016: Food insecurity: Arctic heat is threatening Indigenous life. YaleEnvironment360, accessed 4 August 2019, https://e360.yale.edu/features/arctic_heat_threatens_indigenous_life_climate_change.

  • Tavory, I., and N. Eliasoph, 2013: Coordinating futures: Toward a theory of anticipation. Amer. J. Sociol., 118, 908942, https://doi.org/10.1086/668646.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thoman, R. L., and et al. , 2020a: The record low Bering Sea ice extent in 2018: Context, impacts, and an assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2018 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101 (1), S53S58, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0175.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thoman, R. L., J. Richter-Menge, and M. L. Druckenmiller, Eds., 2020b: Executive summary. Arctic Report Card 2020, NOAA, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.25923/mn5p-t549.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Torrey, B. B., 1983: Slaves of the Harvest. Tanadgusix Corporation, 191 pp.

  • Veltre, D. W., and A. P. McCartney, 2002: Russian exploitation of Aleuts and fur seals: The archaeology of eighteenth- and early-nineteenth-century settlements in the Pribilof Islands, Alaska. Hist. Archaeol., 36, 817, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03374356.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Veniaminov, I., 1840: Notes on the Islands of the Unalashka District. L. T. Black and R. H. Geoghegan, Trans., Limestone Press, 511 pp.

  • Wang, M., Q. Yang, J. E. Overland, and P. Stabeno, 2018: Sea-ice cover timing in the Pacific Arctic: The present and projections to mid-century by selected CMIP5 models. Deep-Sea Res. II, 152, 2234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2017.11.017.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weatherhead, E., S. Gearheard, and R. G. Barry, 2010: Changes in weather persistence: Insight from Inuit knowledge. Global Environ. Change, 20, 523528, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.002.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weaver, C. P., R. J. Lempert, C. Brown, J. A. Hall, D. Revell, and D. Sarewitz, 2013: Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: The value and demands of robust decision frameworks. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 4, 3960, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.202.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weiss, M., 2021: As halibut decline, Alaska Native fishers square off against industrial fleets. National Geographic, accessed 9 April 2021, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/halibut-decline-alaska-native-fishers-square-off-against-industrial-fleets?fbclid=IwAR0E93o-rgXPFzCbZ0ExY0euZRM646AQ-DtYev2tb8OEai5UAx7cODaDsCU.

  • Whyte, K. P., 2017: Is it colonial deja vu? Indigenous peoples and climate injustice. Humanities for the Environment: Integrating Knowledges, Forging New Constellations of Practice, J. Adamson and M. Davis, Eds., Routledge, 88–105.

  • Willette, M., K. Norgaard, and R. Reed, 2015: You got to have fish: Families, environmental decline and cultural reproduction. Fam. Relation. Soc., 5, 375392, https://doi.org/10.1332/204674316X14758424912055.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • WMO, 2015: WMO guidelines on multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services. WMO Doc. 1150, 34 pp., https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=7901.

  • WMO, 2021: Project: Establish climate services in the Arctic polar region. Accessed 8 March 2021, https://public.wmo.int/en/projects/establish-climate-services-arctic-polar-region.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 618 618 80
Full Text Views 37 37 6
PDF Downloads 43 43 7

Anticipatory Culture in the Bering Sea: Weather, Climate, and Temporal Dissonance

View More View Less
  • 1 a National Weather Service, Anchorage, Alaska
  • | 2 b Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, California
  • | 3 c Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

A major implication of climate change is the declining capacity for communities to anticipate future conditions and scenarios. In the Bering Sea region of western Alaska, this situation is acute and holds manifold consequences, particularly for the region’s primarily Indigenous residents. Based upon interviews and fieldwork in two Bering Sea communities and among regional weather forecasters, this paper explores the intertwined temporalities of weather, climate, and social life. I demonstrate that anticipatory culture, which otherwise structures anticipatory practices with regard to climate, local weather, and social life, is beset by temporal dissonance across three time scales. First, dramatic climatic and ecosystem shifts reshape how Indigenous Peoples envision themselves as culturally inhabiting a long-range history and future. Second, changes in weather patterns, ecological cycles, and sea ice dynamics upset evaluations of seasonality, leading to a pervasive sense of unpredictability. Third, on the everyday time scale, social and technological change complicates mariners’ evaluations of risk and economic (commercial and subsistence) decision-making. I conclude by connecting these three socioenvironmental temporalities to the temporal frames that primarily characterize weather and climate services, with an emphasis on the U.S. National Weather Service. The paper discusses how such services may further orient toward engaging socially embedded practices of anticipation in addition to formal prediction. Such an orientation can help to shape an anticipatory culture that more closely aligns meteorological and social patterns.

Significance Statement

Climate change alters how people anticipate the long-term future. For mariners and coastal communities in the Bering Sea region of Alaska, this situation is acute. Researchers and weather services have responded by generating predictive information. However, it is unclear how communities incorporate formal information in their everyday lives, decision-making, and evaluations of weather risk. This study therefore draws upon interviews and qualitative fieldwork in two Bering Sea communities to reconstruct how people anticipate future weather. The study finds that situations of dissonance—marked by unanticipated circumstances—exist at the generational, seasonal, and everyday time scales. I argue weather services can improve by moving beyond a paradigm of formal prediction to incorporate a deeper understanding of community-level social processes.

© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 9 August 2021 to include an additional affiliation for the author that was missing when originally published.

Corresponding author: Zeke Baker, bakerz@sonoma.edu

Abstract

A major implication of climate change is the declining capacity for communities to anticipate future conditions and scenarios. In the Bering Sea region of western Alaska, this situation is acute and holds manifold consequences, particularly for the region’s primarily Indigenous residents. Based upon interviews and fieldwork in two Bering Sea communities and among regional weather forecasters, this paper explores the intertwined temporalities of weather, climate, and social life. I demonstrate that anticipatory culture, which otherwise structures anticipatory practices with regard to climate, local weather, and social life, is beset by temporal dissonance across three time scales. First, dramatic climatic and ecosystem shifts reshape how Indigenous Peoples envision themselves as culturally inhabiting a long-range history and future. Second, changes in weather patterns, ecological cycles, and sea ice dynamics upset evaluations of seasonality, leading to a pervasive sense of unpredictability. Third, on the everyday time scale, social and technological change complicates mariners’ evaluations of risk and economic (commercial and subsistence) decision-making. I conclude by connecting these three socioenvironmental temporalities to the temporal frames that primarily characterize weather and climate services, with an emphasis on the U.S. National Weather Service. The paper discusses how such services may further orient toward engaging socially embedded practices of anticipation in addition to formal prediction. Such an orientation can help to shape an anticipatory culture that more closely aligns meteorological and social patterns.

Significance Statement

Climate change alters how people anticipate the long-term future. For mariners and coastal communities in the Bering Sea region of Alaska, this situation is acute. Researchers and weather services have responded by generating predictive information. However, it is unclear how communities incorporate formal information in their everyday lives, decision-making, and evaluations of weather risk. This study therefore draws upon interviews and qualitative fieldwork in two Bering Sea communities to reconstruct how people anticipate future weather. The study finds that situations of dissonance—marked by unanticipated circumstances—exist at the generational, seasonal, and everyday time scales. I argue weather services can improve by moving beyond a paradigm of formal prediction to incorporate a deeper understanding of community-level social processes.

© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 9 August 2021 to include an additional affiliation for the author that was missing when originally published.

Corresponding author: Zeke Baker, bakerz@sonoma.edu
Save