Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Temperature Biases in Public Opinion Surveys

Matthew Potoski Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California

Search for other papers by Matthew Potoski in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
R. Urbatsch Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa

Search for other papers by R. Urbatsch in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Cindy Yu Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa

Search for other papers by Cindy Yu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Apr 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0001.1
Page(s):
192–196
Restricted access

Abstract

The quasi experiment of deviations from normal temperatures shows how local temperature conditions bias selected survey results. Responses in eight CBS News surveys from 2001 to 2007 change with the weather, with unseasonable temperatures reducing concern about climate change and unusually warm temperatures increasing presidential approval. Unusual temperatures also influence who answers surveys; wealthier respondents are overrepresented in warmer conditions. These results jointly suggest that surveys are at risk for temperature-induced response bias. Weighting-based methods can account for survey results’ temperature-induced differences in samples.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0001.s1.

Corresponding author address: R. Urbatsch, Iowa State University, 503 Ross Hall, Ames, IA 50011. E-mail: rurbat@iastate.edu

Abstract

The quasi experiment of deviations from normal temperatures shows how local temperature conditions bias selected survey results. Responses in eight CBS News surveys from 2001 to 2007 change with the weather, with unseasonable temperatures reducing concern about climate change and unusually warm temperatures increasing presidential approval. Unusual temperatures also influence who answers surveys; wealthier respondents are overrepresented in warmer conditions. These results jointly suggest that surveys are at risk for temperature-induced response bias. Weighting-based methods can account for survey results’ temperature-induced differences in samples.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0001.s1.

Corresponding author address: R. Urbatsch, Iowa State University, 503 Ross Hall, Ames, IA 50011. E-mail: rurbat@iastate.edu

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (DOC 105.50 KB)
Save
Cover Weather, Climate, and Society
Weather, Climate, and Society

  • Cohen, A., 2011: The photosynthetic president: Converting sunshine into popularity. Soc. Sci. J., 48, 295–304, doi:10.1016/j.soscij.2010.11.007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Egan, P. J., and Mullin M. , 2012: Turning personal experience into political attitudes: The effect of local weather on Americans’ perceptions about global warming. J. Polit., 74, 796–809, doi:10.1017/S0022381612000448.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gillis, J., 2010: In weather chaos, a case for global warming. New York Times, 15 August. [Available online at www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/science/earth/15climate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.]

  • Healy, A. J., Malhotra N. , and Mo C. H. , 2010: Irrelevant events affect voters’ evaluations of government performance. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 107, 12 804–12 809, doi:10.1073/pnas.1007420107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Keller, M. C., Fredrickson B. L. , Ybarra O. , CĂ´tĂ© S. , Johnson K. , Mikels J. , Conway A. , and Wager T. , 2005: A warm heart and a clear head: The contingent effects of weather on mood and cognition. Psychol. Sci., 16, 724–731, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01602.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lavrakas, P. J., Shuttles C. D. , Steeh C. , and Fienberg H. , 2007: The state of surveying cell phone numbers in the United States: 2007 and beyond. Public Opin. Quart., 71, 840–854, doi:10.1093/poq/nfm054.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leiserowitz, A. A., 2005: American risk perceptions: Is climate change dangerous? Risk Anal., 25, 1433–1442, doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00690.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1435 587 76
PDF Downloads 716 116 22