Urban Area Response to Flash Flood–Triggering Rainfall, Featuring Human Behavioral Factors: The Case of 22 October 2015 in Attica, Greece

Katerina Papagiannaki Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Search for other papers by Katerina Papagiannaki in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Vassiliki Kotroni Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Search for other papers by Vassiliki Kotroni in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Kostas Lagouvardos Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Search for other papers by Kostas Lagouvardos in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Isabelle Ruin CNRS-LTHE, Grenoble, France

Search for other papers by Isabelle Ruin in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Antonis Bezes Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Search for other papers by Antonis Bezes in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Over the past several decades, flash floods that occurred in Attica, Greece, caused serious property and infrastructure damages, disruptions in economic and social activities, and human fatalities. This paper investigated the link between rainfall and flash flood impact during the catastrophic event that affected Attica on 22 October 2015, while also addressing human risk perception and behavior as a response to flash floods. The methodology included the analysis of the space–time correlation of rainfall with the citizens’ calls to the emergency fire services for help, and the statistical analysis of people’s responses to an online behavioral survey. The results designated critical rainfall thresholds associated with flash flood impact in the four most affected subareas of the Attica region. The impact magnitude was found to be associated with the localized accumulated rainfall. Vulnerability factors, namely, population density, geographical, and environmental features, may have contributed to the differences in the impact magnitudes between the examined subareas. The analysis of the survey’s behavioral responses provided insights into peoples’ risk perception and coping responses relative to the space–time distribution of rainfall. The findings of this study were in agreement with the hypothesis that the more severe the rainfall, the higher peoples’ severity assessment and the intensity of emotional response. Deeper feelings of fear and worry were found to be related to more adjustments to the scheduled activities and travels. Additionally, being alert to the upcoming rainfall risk was found to be related to decreased worry and fear and to fewer changes in scheduled activities.

Denotes content that is immediately available upon publication as open access.

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 5 September 2017 to include the open access designation that was missing when originally published.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Katerina Papagiannaki, katpap@noa.gr

Abstract

Over the past several decades, flash floods that occurred in Attica, Greece, caused serious property and infrastructure damages, disruptions in economic and social activities, and human fatalities. This paper investigated the link between rainfall and flash flood impact during the catastrophic event that affected Attica on 22 October 2015, while also addressing human risk perception and behavior as a response to flash floods. The methodology included the analysis of the space–time correlation of rainfall with the citizens’ calls to the emergency fire services for help, and the statistical analysis of people’s responses to an online behavioral survey. The results designated critical rainfall thresholds associated with flash flood impact in the four most affected subareas of the Attica region. The impact magnitude was found to be associated with the localized accumulated rainfall. Vulnerability factors, namely, population density, geographical, and environmental features, may have contributed to the differences in the impact magnitudes between the examined subareas. The analysis of the survey’s behavioral responses provided insights into peoples’ risk perception and coping responses relative to the space–time distribution of rainfall. The findings of this study were in agreement with the hypothesis that the more severe the rainfall, the higher peoples’ severity assessment and the intensity of emotional response. Deeper feelings of fear and worry were found to be related to more adjustments to the scheduled activities and travels. Additionally, being alert to the upcoming rainfall risk was found to be related to decreased worry and fear and to fewer changes in scheduled activities.

Denotes content that is immediately available upon publication as open access.

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 5 September 2017 to include the open access designation that was missing when originally published.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Katerina Papagiannaki, katpap@noa.gr
Save
  • Amaro, J., M. Gaya, M. Aran, and M. C. Llasat, 2010: Preliminary results of the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX: The request database (2000–2002) of two Meteorological Services. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 26432652, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-2643-2010.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Amiridis, V., and Coauthors, 2012: Impact of the 2009 Attica wild fires on the air quality in urban Athens. Atmos. Environ., 46, 536544, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.07.056.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barbería, L., J. Amaro, M. Aran, and M. C. Llasat, 2014: The role of different factors related to social impact of heavy rain events: Considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 18431852, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1843-2014.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Becker, J. S., H. L. Taylor, B. J. Doody, K. C. Wright, E. Gruntfest, and D. Webber, 2015: A review of people’s behavior in and around floodwater. Wea. Climate Soc., 7, 321332, doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00030.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brody, S. D., W. E. Highfield, and R. Blessing, 2015: An analysis of the effects of land use and land cover on flood losses along the Gulf of Mexico coast from 1999 to 2009. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 51, 15561567, doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12331.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burgess, C., M. Taylor, T. Stephenson, A. Mandal, and L. Powell, 2015: A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability. Nat. Hazards, 78, 231256, doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1712-z.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Creutin, J. D., M. Borga, C. Lutoff, A. Scolobig, I. Ruin, and L. Créton-Cazanave, 2009: Catchment dynamics and social response during flash floods: The potential of radar rainfall monitoring for warning procedures. Meteor. Appl., 16, 115125, doi:10.1002/met.128.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Creutin, J. D., M. Borga, E. Gruntfest, C. Lutoff, D. Zoccatelli, and I. Ruin, 2013: A space and time framework for analyzing human anticipation of flash floods. J. Hydrol., 482, 1424, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.009.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cutter, S. L., B. J. Boruff, and W. L. Shirley, 2003: Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc. Sci. Quart., 84, 242261, doi:10.1111/1540-6237.8402002.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diakakis, M., 2012: Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering: The case of Marathonas in Greece. Nat. Hazards, 60, 789800, doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9904-7.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diakakis, M., and G. Deligiannakis, 2013: Vehicle-related flood fatalities in Greece. Environ. Hazards, 12, 278290, doi:10.1080/17477891.2013.832651.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diakakis, M., M. Foumelis, L. Gouliotis, and E. Lekkas, 2011: Preliminary flood hazard and risk assessment in Western Athens metropolitan area. Advances in the Research of Aquatic Environment, N. Lambrakis, G. Stournaras, and K. Katsanou, Eds., Springer, 147–154, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19902-8_16.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Drabek, T. E., 1999: Understanding disaster warning responses. Soc. Sci. J., 36, 515523, doi:10.1016/S0362-3319(99)00021-X.

  • Duquenne, M. N., and S. Kaklamani, 2009: Daily mobility of the employed in Greece: A preliminary survey on the extent of the phenomenon (in Greek). Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses, University of Thessaly Tech. Rep., 4 pp. [Available online at http://www.demography-lab.prd.uth.gr/DEMO-NEWS-IOYLIOS-AUGOUSTOS%20No6%20a4.pdf.]

  • Evelpidou, N., N. Mamassis, A. Vassilopoulos, C. Makropoulos, and D. Koutsogiannis, 2009: Flooding in Athens: The Kephisos River flood event of 21–22/10/1994. Conf. on Urban Flood Management (COST22), Paris, France, UNESCO, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4065.5601.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Flaounas, E., K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, C. Claud, J. Delanoë, C. Flamant, E. Madonna, and H. Wernli, 2016: Processes leading to heavy precipitation associated with two Mediterranean cyclones observed during the HyMeX SOP1. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 275286, doi:10.1002/qj.2618.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hellenic Statistical Authority, 2015: Labour force (quarterly), 4th quarter. Accessed 7 December 2016. [Available online at http://www.statistics.gr/en/statistics/-/publication/SJO01/-.]

  • Jansa, A., and Coauthors, 2014: MEDEX: A general overview. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 19651984, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014.

  • Jonkman, S. N., 2005: Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods. Nat. Hazards, 34, 151175, doi:10.1007/s11069-004-8891-3.

  • Jonkman, S. N., and I. Kelman, 2005: An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. Disasters, 29, 7597, doi:10.1111/j.0361-3666.2005.00275.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kellens, W., R. Zaalberg, T. Neutens, W. Vanneuville, and P. De Maeyer, 2011: An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian Coast. Risk Anal., 31, 10551068, doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01571.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kellens, W., T. Terpstra, and P. De Maeyer, 2013: Perception and communication of flood risks: A systematic review of empirical research. Risk Anal., 33, 2449, doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01844.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, E. S., and H. I. Choi, 2012: Estimation of the relative severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for preliminary observations on flash flood preparedness: A case study in Korea. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 9, 15071522, doi:10.3390/ijerph9041507.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kitsos, G., 2004: Implemented and under implementation flood-prevention works in Attica the last five-years and repercussions from the new transport and other works (in Greek). Department of Professional Development Rep., Office of Works Production, Athens, Greece, 9 pp. [Available online at http://library.tee.gr/digital/m2022/m2022_kitsos.pdf.]

  • Lagouvardos, K., V. Kotroni, S. Dobricic, S. Nickovic, and G. Kallos, 1996: The storm of October 21–22, 1994, over Greece: Observations and model results. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 26 21726 226, doi:10.1029/96JD01385.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lagouvardos, K., V. Kotroni, and E. Defer, 2007: The 21–22 January 2004 explosive cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea: Observations and model analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 15191531, doi:10.1002/qj.121.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lagouvardos, K., and Coauthors, 2017: The automatic weather stations NOANN network of the National Observatory of Athens: Operation and database. Geosci. Data J., doi:10.1002/gdj3.44, in press.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lasda, O., A. Dikou, and E. Papapanagiotou, 2010: Flash flooding in Attika, Greece: Climatic change or urbanization? Ambio, 39, 608611, doi:10.1007/s13280-010-0050-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindell, M. K., and R. W. Perry, 2004: Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities. Communicating Effectively in Multicultural Contexts Series, Vol. 7, Sage Publications, 272 pp.

  • Llasat, M. C., L. López, M. Barnolas, and M. Llasat-Botija, 2008: Flash-floods in Catalonia: The social perception in a context of changing vulnerability. Adv. Geosci., 17, 6370, doi:10.5194/adgeo-17-63-2008.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Llasat, M. C., M. Llasat-Botija, M. Barnolas, L. López, and V. Altava-Ortiz, 2009: An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: The case of Catalonia, 1982–2006. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 12011212, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-1201-2009.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loewenstein, G. F., E. U. Weber, C. K. Hsee, and N. Welch, 2001: Risk as feelings. Psychol. Bull., 127, 267, doi:10.1037/0033-2909.127.2.267.

  • Lutoff, C., J.-D. Creutin, I. Ruin, and M. Borga, 2016: Anticipating flash-floods: Multi-scale aspects of the social response. J. Hydrol., 541, 626635, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.005.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McDonald, J. H., 2014: Handbook of Biological Statistics. 3rd ed. Sparky House Publishing, 299 pp. [Available online at http://www.biostathandbook.com/.]

  • Merz, B., H. Kreibich, A. Thieken, and R. Schmidtke, 2004: Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 153163, doi:10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Miceli, R., I. Sotgiu, and M. Settanni, 2008: Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy. J. Environ. Psychol., 28, 164173, doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.006.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mileti, D. S., 1995: Factors related to flood warning response. U.S.– Italy Research Workshop on the Hydrometeorology, Impacts, and Management of Extreme Floods, Perugia, Italy, National Science Foundation, 4.6. [Available online at http://www.engr.colostate.edu/ce/facultystaff/salas/us-italy/papers/46mileti.pdf.]

  • Mimikou, M., and A. Grammatikogiannis, 2006: Real-time monitoring and management of point and areal hydrometeorological data in the Athens metropolitan area. Proc. Fifth FRIEND World Conf.: Climate Variability and Change—Hydrological Impacts, IAHS Publ. 308, Havana, Cuba, IAHS, 31–36. [Available online at http://iahs.info/uploads/dms/13632.10-31-36-48-308-Mimikou.pdf.]

  • Molinari, D., F. Ballio, J. Handmer, and S. Menoni, 2014: On the modeling of significance for flood damage assessment. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 10, 381391, doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.10.009.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nirupama, N., and S. Simonovic, 2007: Increase of flood risk due to urbanisation: A Canadian example. Nat. Hazards, 40, 2541, doi:10.1007/s11069-006-0003-0.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOA, 2016: National Observatory of Athens. Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development. Weather forecast group. [Available online at http://www.meteo.gr/weather_cases.asp and http://www.meteo.gr/meteoplus/weatherevents.cfm.]

  • O’Neill, E., M. Brennan, F. Brereton, and H. Shahumyan, 2015: Exploring a spatial statistical approach to quantify flood risk perception using cognitive maps. Nat. Hazards, 76, 15731601, doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1559-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Papagiannaki, K., K. Lagouvardos, and V. Kotroni, 2013: A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: A descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001–2011. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 727736, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-727-2013.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Papagiannaki, K., K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, and A. Bezes, 2015: Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 18591871, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1859-2015.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Petrucci, O., and A. A. Pasqua, 2012: Damaging events along roads during bad weather periods: A case study in Calabria (Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 365378, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-365-2012.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pistrika, A., G. Tsakiris, and I. Nalbantis, 2014: Flood depth-damage functions for built environment. Environ. Processes, 1, 553572, doi:10.1007/s40710-014-0038-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Poussin, J. K., W. J. W. Botzen, and J. C. J. H. Aerts, 2014: Factors of influence on flood damage mitigation behaviour by households. Environ. Sci. Policy, 40, 6977, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.013.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ruin, I., J.-D. Creutin, S. Anquetin, and C. Lutoff, 2008: Human exposure to flash floods—Relation between flood parameters and human vulnerability during a storm of September 2002 in Southern France. J. Hydrol., 361, 199213, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.044.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ruin, I., J.-D. Creutin, S. Anquetin, E. Gruntfest, and C. Lutoff, 2009: Human vulnerability to flash floods: Addressing physical exposure and behavioural questions. Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice, P. Samuels et al., Eds., CRC Press, 174–176.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Ruin, I., and Coauthors, 2014: Social and hydrological responses to extreme precipitations: An interdisciplinary strategy for postflood investigation. Wea. Climate Soc., 6, 135153, doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00009.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schroeder, A. J., and Coauthors, 2016: The development of a flash flood severity index. J. Hydrol., 541, 523532, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.005.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shipley, B., 2016: Cause and Correlation in Biology: A User’s Guide to Path Analysis, Structural Equations and Causal Inference with R. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, 314 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Špitalar, M., J. J. Gourley, C. Lutoff, P.-E. Kirstetter, M. Brilly, and N. Carr, 2014: Analysis of flash flood parameters and human impacts in the US from 2006 to 2012. J. Hydrol., 519, 863870, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Terti, G., I. Ruin, S. Anquetin, and J. Gourley, 2015: Dynamic vulnerability factors for impact-based flash flood prediction. Nat. Hazards, 79, 14811497, doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1910-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Terti, G., I. Ruin, S. Anquetin, and J. J. Gourley, 2017: A situation-based analysis of flash flood fatalities in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 333345, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00276.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • UNISDR, 2004: Living with Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives. UNISDR, 429 pp. [Available online at http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/657.]

  • Xiao, Y., Q. Huang, and K. Wu, 2015: Understanding social media data for disaster management. Nat. Hazards, 79, 16631679, doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1918-0.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 2405 1528 40
PDF Downloads 838 132 5