All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 83 32 0
PDF Downloads 58 24 0

Objective and Subjective Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Methods for Improving Forecast Quality

View More View Less
  • 1 College of Business Administration, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403
  • | 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
Restricted access

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation of some methods for improving the quality of precipitation probability forecasts. These methods include 1) techniques for adjusting subjective and objective forecasts using past reliability data and 2) techniques for combining these two types of forecasts via both averaging and a more sophisticated statistical aggregation procedure. The empirical results indicate that forecast performance can be improved through such methods, with the greatest improvements arising from averaging forecasts that have previously been adjusted.

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation of some methods for improving the quality of precipitation probability forecasts. These methods include 1) techniques for adjusting subjective and objective forecasts using past reliability data and 2) techniques for combining these two types of forecasts via both averaging and a more sophisticated statistical aggregation procedure. The empirical results indicate that forecast performance can be improved through such methods, with the greatest improvements arising from averaging forecasts that have previously been adjusted.

Save