• Abramowitz, M., and I. A. Stegun, 1972: Handbook of Mathematical Functions. Dover, 1046 pp.

  • Alpert, M., and H. Raiffa, 1982: A progress report on the training of probability assessors. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 294–305.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Bernardo, J. M., and A. F. M. Smith, 1994: Bayesian Theory. Wiley, 586 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • DeGroot, M. H., and S. E. Fienberg, 1983: The comparison and evaluation of forecasters. Statistician,32, 12–22.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Krzysztofowicz, R., 1987: Markovian forecast processes. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.,82, 31–37.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, 1992: Bayesian correlation score: A utilitarian measure of forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev.,120, 208–219.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, 1996: Sufficiency, informativeness, and value of forecasts. Proc. Workshop on the Evaluation of Space Weather Forecasts, Boulder, CO, Space Environment Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 103–112.

  • ——, and T. R. Drake, 1992: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts for river forecasting. Preprints, Symp. on Weather Forecasting, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66–71.

  • ——, and ——, 1993: Usage of guidance products in preparing probabilistic QPFs for river basins. Post-prints, Third National Heavy Precipitation Workshop, NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS ER-87, 43–50. [Available from National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161.].

  • ——, and A. A. Sigrest, 1997: Local climatic guidance for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev.,125, 305–316.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, W. J. Drzal, T. R. Drake, J. C. Weyman, and L. A. Giordano, 1993: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts for river basins. Wea. Forecasting,8, 424–439.

  • Lichtenstein, S., and B. Fischhoff, 1980: Training for calibration. Organ. Behav. Human Perform.,26, 149–171.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Morris, P. A., 1977: Combining expert judgments: A Bayesian approach. Manage. Sci.,23, 679–693.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1974: Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results. Mon. Wea. Rev.,102, 784–794.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, and R. L. Winkler, 1979: Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case for an operational program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,60, 12–19.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, and H. Daan, 1984: Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev.,112, 413–423.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev.,115, 1330–1338.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • ——, W.-R. Hsu, R. L. Winkler, and D. S. Wilks, 1985: The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: Some experimental results. Mon. Wea. Rev.,113, 2075–2089.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA, 1972: National Weather Service river forecast system forecast procedures. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS Hydro-14. [Available from National Weather Service, Hydrological Research Laboratory, 1325 East–West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910.].

  • Wallsten, T. S., D. V. Budescu, and R. Zwick, 1993: Comparing the calibration and coherence of numerical and verbal probability judgments. Manage. Sci.,39, 176–190.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 181 25 1
PDF Downloads 63 18 0

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Systems Engineering and Division of Statistics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
  • | 2 Department of Systems Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
Restricted access

Abstract

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river basins. This is the first in a series of articles devoted to a comprehensive verification of these forecasts. The property verified herein is calibration: a match between forecast probabilities and empirical frequencies of events.

Monthly time series of calibration statistics are analyzed to infer (i) trends in calibration over time, (ii) the forecasters’ skill in quantifying uncertainty, (iii) the adaptability of forecasters’ judgments to nonstationarities of the predictand, (iv) the possibility of reducing biases through dynamic recalibration, and (v) the potential for improving calibration through individualized training.

Corresponding author address: Professor Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Thornton Hall, SE, Charlottesville, VA 22903.

Abstract

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river basins. This is the first in a series of articles devoted to a comprehensive verification of these forecasts. The property verified herein is calibration: a match between forecast probabilities and empirical frequencies of events.

Monthly time series of calibration statistics are analyzed to infer (i) trends in calibration over time, (ii) the forecasters’ skill in quantifying uncertainty, (iii) the adaptability of forecasters’ judgments to nonstationarities of the predictand, (iv) the possibility of reducing biases through dynamic recalibration, and (v) the potential for improving calibration through individualized training.

Corresponding author address: Professor Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Thornton Hall, SE, Charlottesville, VA 22903.

Save