Abstract
Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology–persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%–20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread.
Current affiliation: Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Corresponding author address: Klaus Fraedrich, Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg D-20146, Germany. Email: fraedrich@dkrz.de
