• Cheung, K. K. W., 2001: Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion: Comparison between regional bred modes and random perturbations. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 78 , 2334.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elsberry, R. L., and Carr L. E. , 2000: Consensus of dynamical tropical cyclone track forecasts—error versus spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 41314138.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fraedrich, K., and Leslie L. M. , 1987: Combining predictive schemes in short-term forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 16401644.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fraedrich, K., and Leslie L. M. , 1989: Estimates of cyclone track predictability. Part I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115 , 7992.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fraedrich, K., and Ziehmann-Schlumbohm C. , 1994: Predictability experiments of persistence forecasts in a red noise atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120 , 387428.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fraedrich, K., and Rueckert B. , 1998: Metric adaption for analog forecasting. Physica A, 253 , 379393.

  • Fraedrich, K., Morison R. , and Leslie L. M. , 2000: Improved tropical cyclone track predictions by error recycling. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 74 , 5156.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goerss, J., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 11871193.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hope, J. R., and Neumann C. J. , 1970: An operational technique for relating the movement of existing tropical cyclones to past tracks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 98 , 925933.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leslie, L. M., and Fraedrich K. , 1990: Reduction of tropical cyclone position errors using an optimal combination of independent forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 5 , 158161.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leslie, L. M., Holland G. J. , Glover M. , and Woodcock F. , 1990: The skill of tropical cyclone position forecasting in the Australian region. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 38 , 8792.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Molteni, F., Buizza R. , Palmer T. N. , and Petroliagis T. , 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122 , 73119.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., 1972: An alternate to the HURRAN (Hurricane Analog) tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 32 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., 1981: Trends in forecasting the tracks of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62 , 14731485.

  • Neumann, C. J., and Pelissier J. M. , 1981a: An analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast errors, 1970–1979. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 , 12481266.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., and Pelissier J. M. , 1981b: Models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the North Atlantic: An operational evaluation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 , 522538.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pike, A. C., and Neumann C. J. , 1987: The variation of track forecast difficulty among tropical cyclone basins. Wea. Forecasting, 2 , 237241.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sauer, T., Yorke J. A. , and Casdagli M. , 1991: Embedology. J. Stat. Phys., 65 , 579615.

  • Sievers, O., Fraedrich K. , and Raible C. C. , 2000: Self-adapting analog ensemble predictions of tropical cyclone tracks. Wea. Forecasting, 15 , 623629.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Z., and Krishnamurti T. N. , 1997: Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 27852795.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1 1 1
PDF Downloads 3 3 3

Analog Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Australian Region

View More View Less
  • 1 Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Restricted access

Abstract

Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology–persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%–20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread.

Current affiliation: Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Corresponding author address: Klaus Fraedrich, Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg D-20146, Germany. Email: fraedrich@dkrz.de

Abstract

Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology–persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%–20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread.

Current affiliation: Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Corresponding author address: Klaus Fraedrich, Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg D-20146, Germany. Email: fraedrich@dkrz.de

Save