• Elsner, J. B., and Schmertmann C. P. , 1993: Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 8 , 345351.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, W. M., 1984a: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112 , 16491668.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, W. M., 1984b: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part II: Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112 , 16691683.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, W. M., Landsea C. W. , Mielke P. W. Jr., and Berry K. J. , 1984–2001: Seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts and verifications. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO. [Available online at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, W. M., Landsea C. W. , Mielke P. W. Jr., and Berry K. J. , 1992: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6–11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting, 7 , 440455.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, W. M., Landsea C. W. , Mielke P. W. Jr., and Berry K. J. , 1993: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Wea. Forecasting, 8 , 7386.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gray, W. M., Landsea C. W. , Mielke P. W. Jr., and Berry K. J. , 1994: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 103115.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jarrell, J. D., Mayfield M. , Rappaport E. N. , and Landsea C. W. , 2001: The deadliest, costliest, and most intense United States hurricanes from 1900 to 2000 (and other frequently requested hurricane facts). NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS TPC-3, Miami, FL, 29 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann C. J. , and Davis M. A. S. , 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886–1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, Miami, FL, 21 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., 2000: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the seasonal variability of tropical cyclones. El Niño: Impact of Multiscale Variability on Natural Ecosystems and Society, H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 149–181.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., Gray W. M. , Mielke P. W. Jr., and Berry K. J. , 1994: Seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather, 49 , 273284.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., Nicholls N. , Gray W. M. , and Avila L. A. , 1996: Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23 , 16971700.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., Pielke R. A. Jr., Mestas-Nuñez A. M. , and Knaff J. A. , 1999: Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes. Climatic Change, 42 , 89129.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., Jarvinen B. R. , McAdie C. J. , and Hammer G. R. , 1999: Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871–1998. Historical Climatology Series, No. 6-2, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (in cooperation with the National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL), 206 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pielke R. A. Jr., , and Landsea C. W. , 1998: Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925–95. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 621631.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • U.S. Senate, 1995: Federal disaster assistance. Report of the Bipartisan Task Force on Funding Disaster Relief, 104th Cong., 250 pp.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 0 0 0
PDF Downloads 0 0 0

Assessing the Skill of Operational Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

View More View Less
  • 1 University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, Florida
  • | 2 NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
Restricted access

Abstract

Since 1984, W. Gray of Colorado State University and a team of researchers have been issuing seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for the North Atlantic Ocean. Prior to this, little work had been done in the area of long-term tropical cyclone forecasting because researchers saw minimal potential skill in any prediction models and no obvious benefits to be gained. However, seasonal forecasts have been attracting more attention as economic and insured losses from hurricane-related catastrophes rose sharply during recent decades. Initially, the forecasts issued by Gray consisted of output from simple statistical prediction models. Over time, the models became increasingly more complex and sophisticated, with new versions being introduced in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, and 1997. In addition, based on a combination of experience with the statistical models and other qualitative considerations such as examinations of analog years, the statistical forecasts were modified to create adjusted seasonal forecasts. This analysis assessed the skill demonstrated, if any, of both the statistical and adjusted forecasts over the benchmarks of climatology and persistence and examined whether the adjusted forecasts were more accurate than the statistical forecasts. The analysis indicates that, over the past 18 yr, both the statistical and adjusted forecasts demonstrated some skill over climatology and persistence. There is also evidence to suggest that the adjusted forecast was more skillful than the statistical model forecast.

Current affiliation: Risk Management Solutions Limited, London, United Kingdom

Corresponding author address: Brian F. Owens, Risk Management Solutions Limited, 10 Eastcheap, London EC3M 1AJ, United Kingdom. Email: brian.owens@rms.com

Abstract

Since 1984, W. Gray of Colorado State University and a team of researchers have been issuing seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for the North Atlantic Ocean. Prior to this, little work had been done in the area of long-term tropical cyclone forecasting because researchers saw minimal potential skill in any prediction models and no obvious benefits to be gained. However, seasonal forecasts have been attracting more attention as economic and insured losses from hurricane-related catastrophes rose sharply during recent decades. Initially, the forecasts issued by Gray consisted of output from simple statistical prediction models. Over time, the models became increasingly more complex and sophisticated, with new versions being introduced in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, and 1997. In addition, based on a combination of experience with the statistical models and other qualitative considerations such as examinations of analog years, the statistical forecasts were modified to create adjusted seasonal forecasts. This analysis assessed the skill demonstrated, if any, of both the statistical and adjusted forecasts over the benchmarks of climatology and persistence and examined whether the adjusted forecasts were more accurate than the statistical forecasts. The analysis indicates that, over the past 18 yr, both the statistical and adjusted forecasts demonstrated some skill over climatology and persistence. There is also evidence to suggest that the adjusted forecast was more skillful than the statistical model forecast.

Current affiliation: Risk Management Solutions Limited, London, United Kingdom

Corresponding author address: Brian F. Owens, Risk Management Solutions Limited, 10 Eastcheap, London EC3M 1AJ, United Kingdom. Email: brian.owens@rms.com

Save