• Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasting in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 10051015.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chu, J-H., 1994: A regression model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. NRL Memo. Rep. 7541-94-7215, Naval Research Laboratory, 33 pp. [Available from Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943-5502.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, M. A. S., Brown G. M. , and Leftwich P. , 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the eastern and central North Pacific basins, 1949–1983. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-25, 15 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DeMaria, M., and Kaplan J. , 1999: An updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14 , 326337.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dvorak, V. F., 1972: A technique for the analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclone intensities from satellite pictures. NOAA Tech. Memo. NESDIS 36, 15 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dvorak, V. F., 1975: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting from satellite imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103 , 420430.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dvorak, V. F., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 11, 47 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elsberry, R. L., 1987: Observation and analysis of tropical cyclones. A Global View of Tropical Cyclones, R. L. Elsberry, Ed., Office of Naval Research, 1–11. [Available from Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Franklin, J. L., and DeMaria M. , 1992: The impact of Omega dropwindsonde observations on barotropic hurricane track forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120 , 381391.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gross, J. M., 1999: 1998 National Hurricane Center forecast verification. Minutes of the 53d Interdepartmental Hurricane Conf., Biloxi, MS, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, B24–B63. [Available from Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, 8455 Colesville Rd., Suite 1500, Silver Spring, MD 20910.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guard, C. P., Carr L. E. , Wells F. H. , Jefferies R. A. , Gural N. D. , and Edson D. K. , 1992: Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the challenges of multibasin tropical cyclone forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7 , 328352.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • IMSL, 1987: FORTRAN Subroutines for Statistical Analysis. International Mathematical and Statistical FORTRAN Library, 1232 pp.

  • Jarvinen, B. R., and Neumann C. J. , 1979: Statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity for the North Atlantic basin. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10, 22 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann C. J. , and Davis M. A. S. , 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886–1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-22, 21 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • JTWC, cited 2002a: JTWC TC climatology tables—northwestern Pacific. [Available online at http//www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/climostats/Statclimo.html.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • JTWC, cited 2002b: Tropical cyclone best track data site. [Available online at http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/best_tracks/.].

  • Knaff, J. A., and Landsea C. W. , 1997: An El Niño–Southern Oscillation climatology and persistence (CLIPER) forecasting scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 12 , 633652.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., 1993: A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121 , 17031713.

  • McAdie, C., and Lawrence M. B. , 2000: Improvements in tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Atlantic basin, 1970–98. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 989997.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Merrill, R. T., 1980: A statistical tropical cyclone motion forecasting system for the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 14, 21 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mielke P. W. Jr., , Berry K. J. , Landsea C. W. , and Gray W. M. , 1996: Artificial skill and validation in meteorological forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 11 , 153169.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., 1972: An alternate to the HURAN (hurricane analog) tropical cyclone forecasting system. NOAA Tech Memo. NWS SR-62, 23 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., 1993: Global overview. Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, G. J. Holland, Ed., WMO Tech. Doc. 560, Rep. TCP-31, 1-1–1-43.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neumann, C. J., Jarvinen B. R. , McAdie C. J. , and Elms J. D. , 1993: Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871–1992. Historical Climatology Series, No. 6-2, 4th rev., NESDIS, Asheville, NC, 193 pp. [Available from National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patten Ave., Asheville, NC 28801.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • OFCM, 2001: 55th IHC action items. Minutes of the 55th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conf., Orlando, FL, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, 4–8. [Available from Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, 8455 Colesville Rd., Suite 1500, Silver Spring, MD 20910.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Panofsky, H. A., and Brier G. W. , 1968: Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology. The Pennsylvania State University, 224 pp.

  • Sampson, C. R., and Schrader A. J. , 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 12311240.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sheets, R. C., 1990: The National Hurricane Center—past, present and future. Wea. Forecasting, 5 , 185232.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 387 157 0
PDF Downloads 161 102 0

Statistical, 5-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence

View More View Less
  • 1 CIRA/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
  • | 2 NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, Colorado
  • | 3 Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
  • | 4 Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida
Restricted access

Abstract

Tropical cyclone track forecasting has improved recently to the point at which extending the official forecasts of both track and intensity to 5 days is being considered at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Current verification procedures at both of these operational centers utilize a suite of control models, derived from the “climatology” and “persistence” techniques, that make forecasts out to 3 days. To evaluate and verify 5-day forecasts, the current suite of control forecasts needs to be redeveloped to extend the forecasts from 72 to 120 h. This paper describes the development of 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecast models derived from climatology and persistence for the Atlantic, the eastern North Pacific, and the western North Pacific Oceans. Results using independent input data show that these new models possess similar error and bias characteristics when compared with their predecessors in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific but that the west Pacific model shows a statistically significant improvement when compared with its forerunner. Errors associated with these tropical cyclone intensity forecast models are also shown to level off beyond 3 days in all of the basins studied.

Corresponding author address: John A. Knaff, NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Foothills Campus, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375. Email: knaff@cira.colostate.edu

Abstract

Tropical cyclone track forecasting has improved recently to the point at which extending the official forecasts of both track and intensity to 5 days is being considered at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Current verification procedures at both of these operational centers utilize a suite of control models, derived from the “climatology” and “persistence” techniques, that make forecasts out to 3 days. To evaluate and verify 5-day forecasts, the current suite of control forecasts needs to be redeveloped to extend the forecasts from 72 to 120 h. This paper describes the development of 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecast models derived from climatology and persistence for the Atlantic, the eastern North Pacific, and the western North Pacific Oceans. Results using independent input data show that these new models possess similar error and bias characteristics when compared with their predecessors in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific but that the west Pacific model shows a statistically significant improvement when compared with its forerunner. Errors associated with these tropical cyclone intensity forecast models are also shown to level off beyond 3 days in all of the basins studied.

Corresponding author address: John A. Knaff, NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Foothills Campus, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375. Email: knaff@cira.colostate.edu

Save