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Forecasting Maximum and Minimum Temperatures by Statistical Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

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  • 1 National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi, India
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Abstract

The inability of a general circulation model (GCM) to predict the surface weather parameters accurately necessitates statistical interpretation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output. Here a system for forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures has been developed and implemented for 12 locations in India based on the perfect prog method (PPM) approach. The analyzed data from the ECMWF for a period of 6 yr (1985–90) are used to develop PPM model equations. Daily forecasts for maximum and minimum temperatures are then obtained from these equations by using T-80 model output. In order to assess the skill and quality of the temperature forecasts, an attempt has been made to verify them by employing the conditional and marginal distribution of forecasts and observations using the data of four monsoon seasons from 1997 through 2000.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Parvinder Maini, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. Email: pmaini@ncmrwf.gov.in

Abstract

The inability of a general circulation model (GCM) to predict the surface weather parameters accurately necessitates statistical interpretation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output. Here a system for forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures has been developed and implemented for 12 locations in India based on the perfect prog method (PPM) approach. The analyzed data from the ECMWF for a period of 6 yr (1985–90) are used to develop PPM model equations. Daily forecasts for maximum and minimum temperatures are then obtained from these equations by using T-80 model output. In order to assess the skill and quality of the temperature forecasts, an attempt has been made to verify them by employing the conditional and marginal distribution of forecasts and observations using the data of four monsoon seasons from 1997 through 2000.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Parvinder Maini, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. Email: pmaini@ncmrwf.gov.in

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