Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Environmental and Inner-Core Conditions Governing the Intensity of Hurricane Erin (2001)

Thomas A. Jones Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama

Search for other papers by Thomas A. Jones in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Daniel J. Cecil Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama

Search for other papers by Daniel J. Cecil in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Jason Dunion University of Miami/RSMAS/CIMAS, Miami, Florida

Search for other papers by Jason Dunion in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Aug 2007
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF1017.1
Page(s):
708–725
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

The evolution of Hurricane Erin (2001) is presented from the perspective of its environmental and inner-core conditions, particularly as they are characterized in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI). Erin can be described as having two very distinct periods. The first, which occurred between 1 and 6 September 2001, was characterized by a struggling tropical storm failing to intensify as the result of unfavorable environmental and inner-core conditions. The surrounding environment during this period was dominated by moderate shear and mid- to upper-level dry air, both caused in some part by the presence of a Saharan air layer (SAL). Further intensification was inhibited by the lack of sustained deep convection and latent heating near the low-level center. The authors attribute this in part to negative effects from the SAL. The thermodynamic conditions associated with the SAL were not well sampled by the SHIPS parameters, resulting in substantial overforecasting by both SHIPS and SHIPS-MI. Instead, the hostile conditions surrounding Erin caused its dissipation on 6 September. The second period began on 7 September when Erin re-formed north of the original center. Erin began to pull away from the SAL and moved over 29°C sea surface temperatures, beginning a rapid intensification phase and reaching 105 kt by 1800 UTC 9 September. SHIPS-MI forecasts called for substantial intensification as in the previous period, but this time the model underestimated the rate of intensification. The addition of inner-core characteristics from passive microwave data improved the skill somewhat compared to SHIPS, but still left much room for improvement. For this period, it appears that the increasingly favorable atmospheric conditions caused by Erin moving away from the SAL were not well sampled by SHIPS or SHIPS-MI. As a result, the intensity change forecasts were not able to take into account the more favorable environment.

Corresponding author address: Thomas Jones, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Dr., Huntsville, AL 35805. Email: tjones@nsstc.uah.edu

Abstract

The evolution of Hurricane Erin (2001) is presented from the perspective of its environmental and inner-core conditions, particularly as they are characterized in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI). Erin can be described as having two very distinct periods. The first, which occurred between 1 and 6 September 2001, was characterized by a struggling tropical storm failing to intensify as the result of unfavorable environmental and inner-core conditions. The surrounding environment during this period was dominated by moderate shear and mid- to upper-level dry air, both caused in some part by the presence of a Saharan air layer (SAL). Further intensification was inhibited by the lack of sustained deep convection and latent heating near the low-level center. The authors attribute this in part to negative effects from the SAL. The thermodynamic conditions associated with the SAL were not well sampled by the SHIPS parameters, resulting in substantial overforecasting by both SHIPS and SHIPS-MI. Instead, the hostile conditions surrounding Erin caused its dissipation on 6 September. The second period began on 7 September when Erin re-formed north of the original center. Erin began to pull away from the SAL and moved over 29°C sea surface temperatures, beginning a rapid intensification phase and reaching 105 kt by 1800 UTC 9 September. SHIPS-MI forecasts called for substantial intensification as in the previous period, but this time the model underestimated the rate of intensification. The addition of inner-core characteristics from passive microwave data improved the skill somewhat compared to SHIPS, but still left much room for improvement. For this period, it appears that the increasingly favorable atmospheric conditions caused by Erin moving away from the SAL were not well sampled by SHIPS or SHIPS-MI. As a result, the intensity change forecasts were not able to take into account the more favorable environment.

Corresponding author address: Thomas Jones, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Dr., Huntsville, AL 35805. Email: tjones@nsstc.uah.edu

Save
Cover Weather and Forecasting
Weather and Forecasting

  • Bankert, R. L., and Tag P. M. , 2002: An automated method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using SSM/I imagery. J. Appl. Meteor., 41 , 461–472.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barnes, W. L., Pagano T. S. , and Salomonson V. V. , 1998: Prelaunch characteristics of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on EOS-AM1. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 36 , 1088–1100.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Beven J. L. II, , Stewart S. R. , Lawrence M. B. , Avila L. A. , Franklin J. L. , and Pasch R. J. , 2003: Atlantic hurricane season of 2001. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 1454–1484.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cecil, D. J., and Zipser E. J. , 1999: Relationships between tropical cyclone intensity and satellite-based indicators of inner core convection: 85-Ghz ice-scattering signature and lightning. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127 , 103–123.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • DeMaria, M., and Kaplan J. , 1994: A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 209–220.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • DeMaria, M., and Kaplan J. , 1999: An updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14 , 326–337.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • DeMaria, M., Mainelli M. , Shay L. K. , Knaff J. , and Kaplan J. , 2005: Further improvements to the updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20 , 531–543.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dunion, J. P., and Velden C. S. , 2004: The impact of the Saharan air layer (SAL) on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85 , 353–364.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dunion, J. P., Velden C. S. , Hawkins J. D. , and Parrish J. R. , 2004: The Saharan air layer—Insights from the 2002 and 2003 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 13.A3.

  • Emanuel, K. A., 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclonegenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 3431–3456.

  • Halverson, J. B., Simpson J. , Heymsfield G. , Pierce H. , Hock T. , and Ritchie L. , 2006: Warm core structure of Hurricane Erin diagnosed from high altitude dropsondes during CAMEX-4. J. Atmos. Sci., 63 , 309–324.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hollinger, J., Lo R. , Poe G. , Savage R. , and Peirce J. , 1987: Special Sensor Microwave/Imager user’s guide. Naval Research Laboratory, 119 pp.

  • Hudson, J., and Simpson J. , 2002: Cloud condensation nuclei measurements in tropical cyclones. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 83 , (Suppl.). AbstractA41D.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann C. J. , and Davis M. A. S. , 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886–1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, Coral Gables, FL, 21 pp.

  • Jones, T. A., and Cecil D. J. , 2006: Recent updates to SHIPS-MI. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 14.A5.

  • Jones, T. A., Cecil D. J. , and DeMaria M. , 2006: Passive-microwave-enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 21 , 613–635.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kummerow, C., Barnes W. , Kozu T. , Shiue J. , and Simpson J. , 1998: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 15 , 809–817.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Powell, M. D., 1990: Boundary layer structure and dynamics in outer hurricane rainbands. Part I: Mesoscale rainfall and kinematic structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118 , 891–917.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rao, G. V., and MacArthur P. D. , 1994: The SSM/I estimated rainfall amounts of tropical cyclones and their potential in predicting the cyclone intensity changes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122 , 1568–1574.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Reynolds, R. W., and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7 , 929–948.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rodgers, E. B., and Pierce H. F. , 1995: A satellite observational study of precipitation characteristics in western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J. Appl. Meteor., 34 , 2587–2599.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rodgers, E. B., Chang S. W. , and Pierce H. F. , 1994: A satellite observational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Appl. Meteor., 33 , 129–139.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rosenthal, S. L., 1978: Numerical simulation of tropical cyclone development with latent heat release by the resolvable scale. I: Model description and preliminary results. J. Atmos. Sci., 35 , 258–271.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Steranka, J., Rodgers E. B. , and Gentry R. C. , 1986: The relationship between satellite measured convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 1539–1546.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Velden, C. S., 1996: Winds derived from geostationary satellite moisture channel observations: Applications and impact on numerical weather prediction. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 60 , 37–46.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 353 202 72
PDF Downloads 101 30 1