Investigating the Utility of Using Cross-Oceanic Training Sets for Superensemble Forecasting of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity

Mark R. Jordan II Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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T. N. Krishnamurti Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Carol Anne Clayson Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Abstract

This paper examines how combining training-set forecasts from two separate oceanic basins affects the resulting tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a particular oceanic basin. Atlantic and eastern Pacific training sets for 2002 and 2003 are combined and used to forecast 2004 eastern Pacific tropical cyclones in a real-time setting. These experiments show that the addition of Atlantic training improves the 2004 eastern Pacific forecasts. Finally, a detailed study of training-set and real-time model biases is completed in an effort to determine why cross-oceanic training may have helped in this instance.

Corresponding author address: Carol Anne Clayson, Dept. of Meteorology, and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute, The Florida State University, 404 Love Bldg., Tallahassee, FL 32306. Email: clayson@met.fsu.edu

Abstract

This paper examines how combining training-set forecasts from two separate oceanic basins affects the resulting tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a particular oceanic basin. Atlantic and eastern Pacific training sets for 2002 and 2003 are combined and used to forecast 2004 eastern Pacific tropical cyclones in a real-time setting. These experiments show that the addition of Atlantic training improves the 2004 eastern Pacific forecasts. Finally, a detailed study of training-set and real-time model biases is completed in an effort to determine why cross-oceanic training may have helped in this instance.

Corresponding author address: Carol Anne Clayson, Dept. of Meteorology, and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute, The Florida State University, 404 Love Bldg., Tallahassee, FL 32306. Email: clayson@met.fsu.edu

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  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal C. M. , LaRow T. , Bachiochi D. , Zhang Z. , Williford C. E. , Gadgil S. , and Surendran S. , 1999: Improved skills for weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 285 , 15481550.

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  • Rhome, J., cited. 2007: Technical summary of the NHC/TPC tropical cyclone track and intensity guidance models. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml.].

  • Williford, C. E., 2002: Real-time superensemble tropical cyclone prediction. Ph.D. dissertation, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 144 pp.

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