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An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique

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  • 1 NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Abstract

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a contingency table with all other forecasts is presented. Skill scores and probabilities are calculated. Forecast verifications with the currently used technique have shown a slight improvement in intensity forecasts. The new technique, taking into account all forecasts, suggests that the probability of a forecast having a large (>30 kt) error is decreasing, and the likelihood of the error being less than about 10 kt is increasing in time, at all forecast lead times except 12 h when the forecasts are already quite good.

Corresponding author address: Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149. Email: sim.aberson@noaa.gov

Abstract

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a contingency table with all other forecasts is presented. Skill scores and probabilities are calculated. Forecast verifications with the currently used technique have shown a slight improvement in intensity forecasts. The new technique, taking into account all forecasts, suggests that the probability of a forecast having a large (>30 kt) error is decreasing, and the likelihood of the error being less than about 10 kt is increasing in time, at all forecast lead times except 12 h when the forecasts are already quite good.

Corresponding author address: Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149. Email: sim.aberson@noaa.gov

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