The Gridding of MOS

Bob Glahn Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Kathryn Gilbert Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Rebecca Cosgrove Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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David P. Ruth Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Kari Sheets Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Abstract

Model output statistics (MOS) guidance forecasts have been produced at stations and provided to National Weather Service forecasters and private entities for over three decades. As the numerical weather prediction models became more accurate, MOS followed that trend. Up until a few years ago, the MOS produced at observation locations met the basic need for guidance. With the advent of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System and the National Digital Forecast Database, gridded MOS forecasts became needed as guidance for forecasters. One method of providing such grids is to objectively analyze the MOS forecasts for points.

A basic successive correction method has been extended to analyze MOS forecasts and surface weather variables. This method is being applied to MOS forecasts to provide guidance for producing grids of sensible weather elements such as temperature, clouds, and snow amount. Guidance forecasts have been implemented for the conterminous United States for most weather elements contained in routine weather forecasts. This paper describes the method applied to daytime maximum temperature over the conterminous United States and gives example results.

Corresponding author address: Bob Glahn, Meteorological Development Laboratory, 1325 East–West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910. Email: harry.glahn@noaa.gov

Abstract

Model output statistics (MOS) guidance forecasts have been produced at stations and provided to National Weather Service forecasters and private entities for over three decades. As the numerical weather prediction models became more accurate, MOS followed that trend. Up until a few years ago, the MOS produced at observation locations met the basic need for guidance. With the advent of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System and the National Digital Forecast Database, gridded MOS forecasts became needed as guidance for forecasters. One method of providing such grids is to objectively analyze the MOS forecasts for points.

A basic successive correction method has been extended to analyze MOS forecasts and surface weather variables. This method is being applied to MOS forecasts to provide guidance for producing grids of sensible weather elements such as temperature, clouds, and snow amount. Guidance forecasts have been implemented for the conterminous United States for most weather elements contained in routine weather forecasts. This paper describes the method applied to daytime maximum temperature over the conterminous United States and gives example results.

Corresponding author address: Bob Glahn, Meteorological Development Laboratory, 1325 East–West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910. Email: harry.glahn@noaa.gov

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