Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center

Edward N. Rappaport NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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James L. Franklin NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Lixion A. Avila NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Stephen R. Baig NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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John L. Beven II NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Eric S. Blake NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Christopher A. Burr NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Jiann-Gwo Jiing NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Christopher A. Juckins NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Richard D. Knabb NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Christopher W. Landsea NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Michelle Mainelli NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Max Mayfield NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Colin J. McAdie NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Richard J. Pasch NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Christopher Sisko NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Stacy R. Stewart NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Ahsha N. Tribble NOAA/National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Abstract

The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.

* Retired

+ Current affiliation: National Centers for Environmental Prediction Central Operations, Camp Springs, Maryland

# Current affiliation: WPLG-TV, Miami, Florida

@ Current affiliation: National Weather Service/Climate Service Division, Silver Spring, Maryland

Corresponding author address: Edward N. Rappaport, National Hurricane Center, 11691 SW 17th St., Miami, FL 33165-2149. Email: edward.n.rappaport@noaa.gov

Abstract

The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.

* Retired

+ Current affiliation: National Centers for Environmental Prediction Central Operations, Camp Springs, Maryland

# Current affiliation: WPLG-TV, Miami, Florida

@ Current affiliation: National Weather Service/Climate Service Division, Silver Spring, Maryland

Corresponding author address: Edward N. Rappaport, National Hurricane Center, 11691 SW 17th St., Miami, FL 33165-2149. Email: edward.n.rappaport@noaa.gov

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