Evaluation of Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings from the United States

Ryan Jewell Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Ryan Jewell in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Julian Brimelow Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Search for other papers by Julian Brimelow in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

A one-dimensional, coupled hail and cloud model (HAILCAST) is tested to assess its ability to predict hail size. The model employs an ensemble approach when forecasting maximum hail size, uses a sounding as input, and can be run in seconds on an operational workstation. The model was originally developed in South Africa and then improved upon in Canada, using high quality hail verification data for calibration. In this study, the model was run on a spatially and seasonally diverse set of 914 modified severe hail proximity soundings collected within the contiguous United States between 1989 and 2004. Model output was then compared to the maximum observed hail size for each proximity sounding. Basic verification statistics are presented, showing that the HAILCAST model exhibits considerable skill that can be of use to the operational severe weather forecaster.

Corresponding author address: Ryan Jewell, Storm Prediction Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072. Email: ryan.jewell@noaa.gov

Abstract

A one-dimensional, coupled hail and cloud model (HAILCAST) is tested to assess its ability to predict hail size. The model employs an ensemble approach when forecasting maximum hail size, uses a sounding as input, and can be run in seconds on an operational workstation. The model was originally developed in South Africa and then improved upon in Canada, using high quality hail verification data for calibration. In this study, the model was run on a spatially and seasonally diverse set of 914 modified severe hail proximity soundings collected within the contiguous United States between 1989 and 2004. Model output was then compared to the maximum observed hail size for each proximity sounding. Basic verification statistics are presented, showing that the HAILCAST model exhibits considerable skill that can be of use to the operational severe weather forecaster.

Corresponding author address: Ryan Jewell, Storm Prediction Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072. Email: ryan.jewell@noaa.gov

Save
  • Amburn, S., and Wolf P. , 1997: VIL density as a hail indicator. Wea. Forecasting, 12 , 473478.

  • Barge, B. L., and Isaac G. A. , 1973: The shape of Alberta hailstones. J. Rech. Atmos., 7 , 1120.

  • Baumgardt, D., cited. 2008: Hail estimation: How good are your spotters? [Available online at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/hail_size_MSP.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bluestein, H. B., McCaul E. W. Jr., Byrd G. P. , and Woodall G. R. , 1988: Mobile sounding observations of a tornadic storm near the dryline: The Canadian, Texas, storm of 7 May 1986. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116 , 17901804.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bright, D. R., Wandishin M. S. , Jewell R. E. , and Weiss S. J. , 2005: A physically-based parameter for lightning prediction and its calibration in ensemble forecasts. Preprints, Conf. on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/84173.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brimelow, J. C., 1999: Numerical modeling of hailstone growth in Alberta storms. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, 153 pp.

  • Brimelow, J. C., and Reuter G. W. , 2009: Explicit forecasts of hail occurrence and expected hail size using the GEM–HAILCAST system with a rainfall filter. Wea. Forecasting, 24 , 935945.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brimelow, J. C., Reuter G. W. , and Poolman E. R. , 2002: Modeling maximum hail size in Alberta thunderstorms. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 10481062.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brooks, H. E., Doswell C. A. III, and Cooper J. , 1994: On the environments of tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 606618.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Browning, K. A., and Beimers J. G. D. , 1967: The oblateness of large hailstones. J. Appl. Meteor., 6 , 10751081.

  • Changnon, S. A., 1972: Examples of economic losses, from hail in the United States. J. Appl. Meteor., 11 , 11281137.

  • Corfidi, S. F., Corfidi S. J. , and Schultz D. M. , 2008: Elevated convection and castellanus: Ambiguities, significance, and questions. Wea. Forecasting, 23 , 12801303.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Craven, J. P., and Brooks H. E. , 2004: Baseline climatology of sounding derived parameters associated with deep, moist convection. Natl. Wea. Dig., 28 , 1224.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Craven, J. P., Jewell R. E. , and Brooks H. E. , 2002: Comparison between observed convective cloud-base heights and lifting condensation level for two different lifted parcels. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 885890.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Crook, N. A., 1996: Sensitivity of moist convection forced by boundary layer processes to low-level thermodynamic fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 17671785.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davies, J. M., 2004: Estimations of CIN and LFC associated with tornadic and nontornadic supercells. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 714726.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Donaldson, R. J., Dyer R. M. , and Krauss M. J. , 1975: An objective evaluator of techniques for predicting severe weather events. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 321–326.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Donavon, R. A., and Jungbluth K. A. , 2007: Evaluation of a technique for radar identification of large hail across the Upper Midwest and central plains of the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 22 , 244254.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doswell C. A. III, , and Markowski P. M. , 2004: Is buoyancy a relative quantity? Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 853863.

  • Doswell C. A. III, , Schaefer J. T. , McCann D. W. , Schlatter T. W. , and Wobus H. B. , 1982: Thermodynamic analysis procedures at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 304–309.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doswell C. A. III, , Davies Jones R. , and Keller D. L. , 1990: On summary measures of skill in rare-event forecasting based on contingency tables. Wea. Forecasting, 5 , 576585.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doswell C. A. III, , Brooks H. E. , and Kay M. P. , 2005: Climatological estimates of daily local nontornadic severe thunderstorm probability for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 20 , 577595.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edwards, R., and Thompson R. L. , 1998: Nationwide comparisons of hail size with WSR-88D vertically integrated liquid water and derived thermodynamic sounding data. Wea. Forecasting, 13 , 277285.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fawbush, E. F., and Miller R. C. , 1953: A method for forecasting hailstone size at the earth’s surface. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 34 , 235244.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Foster, D. S., and Bates F. C. , 1956: A hail size forecasting technique. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 37 , 135141.

  • García-García, F., and List R. , 1992: Laboratory measurements and parameterizations of supercooled water skin temperatures and bulk properties of gyrating hailstones. J. Atmos. Sci., 49 , 20582073.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guyer, J. L., and Ewald R. , 2004: Record hail event—Examination of the Aurora, Nebraska, supercell of 22 June 2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11B.1. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/82087.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hales, J. E., 1988: Improving the watch/warning system through use of significant event data. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Baltimore, MD, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165–168.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hart, J. A., 1993: SVRPLOT: A new method of accessing and manipulating the NSSFC Severe Weather Database. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 40–41.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hart, J. A., Whistler J. , Lindsay R. , and Kay M. , 2003: NSHARP, version 3.90. Storm Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Norman, OK.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kitzmiller, D. H., and Breidenbach J. P. , 1993: Probabilistic nowcasts of large hail based on volumetric reflectivity and storm environment characteristics. Preprints, 26th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteorology, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 157–159.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knight, C. A., and Knight N. C. , 2001: Hailstorms. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr., No. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 223–254.

  • Matson, R. J., and Huggins A. W. , 1980: The direct measurement of the sizes, shapes and kinematics of falling hailstones. J. Atmos. Sci., 37 , 11071125.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCaul, E. W., and Weisman M. L. , 2001: The sensitivity of simulated supercell structure and intensity to variations in the shapes of environmental buoyancy and shear profiles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 664687.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Miller, R. C., 1972: Notes on analysis and severe storm forecasting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Center. AWS Tech. Rep. 200 (Rev.), Headquarters, Air Weather Service, Scott AFB, IL, 106 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moore, J. T., and Pino J. P. , 1990: An interactive method for estimating maximum hailstone size from forecast soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 5 , 508526.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morris, D. A., and Janish P. R. , 1996: The utility of mesoscale versus synoptic scale surface observations during the Lahoma hail and windstorm of 17 August 1994. Preprints, 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60–64.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NCDC, 2000: Storm Data. Vol. 42, 131 pp.

  • NOAA, cited. 2008: AWIPS D-2D user manual. [Available online at http://www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/~cheatwoo/AWIPS/OB4-UM/6_2_2.htm].

  • NSSL, cited. 2008: Understanding damage and impacts. [Available online at http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/primer/hail/hail_damage.html].

  • Poolman, E. R., 1992: Die voorspelling van haelkorrelgroei in Suid-Afrika (The forecasting of hail growth in South Africa). M.S. thesis, Faculty of Engineering, University of Pretoria, 113 pp.

  • Renick, J. H., and Maxwell J. B. , 1977: Forecasting hailfall in Alberta. Hail: A Review of Hail Science and Hail Suppression, Meteor. Monogr., No. 38, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 145–151.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rotunno, R., and Klemp J. B. , 1985: On the rotation and propagation of simulated supercell thunderstorms. J. Atmos. Sci., 42 , 271292.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schaefer, J. T., Levit J. J. , Weiss S. J. , and McCarthy D. W. , 2004: The frequency of large hail over the contiguous United States. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/69834.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, T. M., Ortega K. L. , and Kolodziej A. G. , 2007: Enhanced, high-density severe storm verification. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Interactive Information Processing Systems, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4B.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/120091.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thompson, R. L., Mead C. M. , and Edwards R. , 2007: Effective storm-relative helicity and bulk shear in supercell thunderstorm environments. Wea. Forecasting, 22 , 102115.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weisman, M. L., and Klemp J. B. , 1982: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 504520.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weisman, M. L., and Klemp J. B. , 1984: The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective storms in directionally varying wind shears. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112 , 24792498.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1696 874 62
PDF Downloads 886 218 10