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Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores

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  • 1 National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland
  • | 2 National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland
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Abstract

Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit bias sensitivity. The critical performance ratio (CPR) is the minimum fraction of added forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is increased. In the opposite case, the CPR is the maximum fraction of removed forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is decreased. The CPR is derived here for the bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores to quantify bias sensitivity relative to several other measures of performance including conventional threat and equitable threat scores. The CPR for a bias-adjusted equitable threat score may indicate the likelihood of preserving or increasing the conventional equitable threat score if forecasts are bias corrected based on past performance.

Corresponding author address: Keith F. Brill, NCEP/HPC, W/NP32, NOAA Science Center, Rm. 410B-2, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304. Email: keith.brill@noaa.gov

This article included in the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP) special collection.

Abstract

Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit bias sensitivity. The critical performance ratio (CPR) is the minimum fraction of added forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is increased. In the opposite case, the CPR is the maximum fraction of removed forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is decreased. The CPR is derived here for the bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores to quantify bias sensitivity relative to several other measures of performance including conventional threat and equitable threat scores. The CPR for a bias-adjusted equitable threat score may indicate the likelihood of preserving or increasing the conventional equitable threat score if forecasts are bias corrected based on past performance.

Corresponding author address: Keith F. Brill, NCEP/HPC, W/NP32, NOAA Science Center, Rm. 410B-2, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304. Email: keith.brill@noaa.gov

This article included in the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP) special collection.

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