Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Meteorological Development Laboratory’s Aviation Weather Prediction System

Judy E. Ghirardelli NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory/Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Judy E. Ghirardelli in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Bob Glahn NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory/Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Bob Glahn in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Aug 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222312.1
Page(s):
1027–1051
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has developed and implemented an aviation weather prediction system that runs each hour and produces forecast guidance for each hour into the future out to 25 h covering the major forecast period of the National Weather Service (NWS) Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. The Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) consists of analyses of observations, simple advective models, and a statistical component that updates the longer-range MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. LAMP, being an update to GFS MOS, is shown to be an improvement over it, as well as improving over persistence. LAMP produces probabilistic forecasts for the aviation weather elements of ceiling height, sky cover, visibility, obstruction to vision, precipitation occurrence and type, and thunderstorms. Best-category forecasts are derived from these probabilities and their associated thresholds. The LAMP guidance of sensible weather is available for 1591 stations in the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Probabilistic guidance of thunderstorms is also available on a grid. The LAMP guidance is available to the entire weather enterprise via NWS communication networks and the World Wide Web. In the future, all station guidance will be gridded and be made available in a form compatible with the NWS’s National Digital Forecast Database.

Corresponding author address: Judy E. Ghirardelli, National Weather Service/Meteorological Development Laboratory, 1325 East–West Hwy., Silver Spring, MD 20910. Email: judy.ghirardelli@noaa.gov

Abstract

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has developed and implemented an aviation weather prediction system that runs each hour and produces forecast guidance for each hour into the future out to 25 h covering the major forecast period of the National Weather Service (NWS) Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. The Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) consists of analyses of observations, simple advective models, and a statistical component that updates the longer-range MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. LAMP, being an update to GFS MOS, is shown to be an improvement over it, as well as improving over persistence. LAMP produces probabilistic forecasts for the aviation weather elements of ceiling height, sky cover, visibility, obstruction to vision, precipitation occurrence and type, and thunderstorms. Best-category forecasts are derived from these probabilities and their associated thresholds. The LAMP guidance of sensible weather is available for 1591 stations in the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Probabilistic guidance of thunderstorms is also available on a grid. The LAMP guidance is available to the entire weather enterprise via NWS communication networks and the World Wide Web. In the future, all station guidance will be gridded and be made available in a form compatible with the NWS’s National Digital Forecast Database.

Corresponding author address: Judy E. Ghirardelli, National Weather Service/Meteorological Development Laboratory, 1325 East–West Hwy., Silver Spring, MD 20910. Email: judy.ghirardelli@noaa.gov

Save
Cover Weather and Forecasting
Weather and Forecasting

  • Abelman, S., Miner C. , and Neidhard C. , 2009: The NOAA aviation forecast process in the NextGen era. Preprints, 25th Conf. on International Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4A.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/150618.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bergthorsson, P., and Doos B. R. , 1955: Numerical weather map analysis. Tellus, 7 , 329–340.

  • Black, J. L., Bateman R. E. , Herzegh P. H. , Wiener G. , Cowie J. , and Kessinger C. J. , 2008: An automated national-scale ceiling and visibility forecast system: Development progress. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/133936.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78 , 1–3.

  • Brooks, H. E., Doswell C. A. III, and Maddox R. A. , 1992: On the use of mesoscale and cloud-scale models in operational forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7 , 120–132.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cammarata, M. W., 1987: Forecasting temperature, dew point, and maximum temperature, using the Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP). TDL Office Note 87-3, NOAA/NWS, 27 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Carter, G. M., Dallavalle J. P. , and Glahn H. R. , 1989: Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center’s numerical weather prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 4 , 401–412.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Charba, J. P., and Liang F. , 2005: Automated two-hour thunderstorm guidance forecasts. Preprints, Conf. on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.4. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/84746.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Charba, J. P., and Samplatsky F. G. , 2009: Operational 2-h thunderstorm guidance forecasts to 24 hours on a 20-km grid. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 17B.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154173.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cressman, G. P., 1959: An operational objective analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 87 , 367–374.

  • Cummins, K. L., Murphy M. J. , Bardo E. A. , Hiscox W. L. , Pyle R. B. , and Pifer A. E. , 1998: A combined TOA/MDF technology upgrade of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 9035–9044.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dallavalle, J. P., and Dagostaro V. J. , 1995: The accuracy of ceiling and visibility forecasts produced by the National Weather Service. Preprints, Sixth Conf. on Aviation Weather Systems, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 213–218.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dallavalle, J. P., and Cosgrove R. L. , 2005: GFS-based MOS guidance—The short-range alphanumeric messages from the 0000/1200 UTC forecast cycles. MDL Tech. Procedures Bull. 05-03, NOAA/NWS, 13 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pubs/Documents/TechProcBulls/mdltpb05-03.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dallavalle, J. P., Erickson M. C. , and Maloney J. C. III, 2004: Model output statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6.1. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/73764.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Donaldson, R. J., Dyer R. M. , and Kraus M. J. , 1975: An objective evaluator of techniques for predicting severe weather events. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 321–326.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Doswell C. A. III, , 1985: The operational meteorology of convective weather. Vol. II: Storm scale analysis. NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL ESG-15, 240 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Enger, I., Reed L. J. , and MacMonegle J. E. , 1962: An evaluation of 2–7-hr aviation terminal forecasting techniques. Tech. Pub. 20, Contract FAA/BRD-363, Travelers Research Center, Inc., Hartford, CT, 36 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Friday E. W. Jr., , 1994: The modernization and associated restructuring of the National Weather Service: An overview. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75 , 43–52.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gerrity J. F. Jr., , 1977: The LFM-model—1976: A documentation. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC-60, 68 pp.

  • Ghirardelli, J. E., 2005: An overview of the redeveloped Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for short-range forecasting. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/95038.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, B., and Wiedenfeld J. , 2006: Insuring temporal consistency in short range statistical weather forecasts. Preprints, 18th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/103378.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, B., Gilbert K. , Cosgrove R. , Ruth D. P. , and Sheets K. , 2009: The gridding of MOS. Wea. Forecasting, 24 , 520–529.

  • Glahn, H. R., 1964: The use of decision theory in meteorology with an application to aviation weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 92 , 383–388.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., 1980: Plans for the development of a Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP). Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 302–305.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., 1984: Surface wind forecasts from the Local AFOS Program (LAMP). Preprints, 18th Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Clearwater Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78–86.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., and Lowry D. A. , 1972: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 11 , 1203–1211.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., and Unger D. A. , 1982: Some results from the Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP). Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 364–371.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., and Unger D. A. , 1986: A Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP) and its application to wind prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 1313–1329.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., and Ruth D. P. , 2003: The new digital forecast database of the National Weather Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84 , 195–201.

  • Glahn, H. R., and Ghirardelli J. E. , 2004: The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Analysis and Prediction System. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Probabilty and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences/20th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J12.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/72289.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glahn, H. R., Chambers T. L. , Richardson W. S. , and Perrotti H. P. , 1985: Objective map analysis for the Local AFOS MOS Program. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS TDL 75, 34 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pubs/Documents/TechMemo/TechMemo75.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Grayson, T. H., and Bermowitz R. J. , 1974: A subsynoptic update model and forecast system with application to aviation weather: Final Report, Phase II. FAA-RD-74-l00, 46 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hoke, J. E., Phillips N. A. , DiMego G. J. , Tuccillo J. J. , and Sela J. G. , 1989: The Regional Analysis and Forecast System of the National Meteorological Center. Wea. Forecasting, 4 , 323–334.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jacobs, A. J. M., and Maat N. , 2005: Numerical guidance methods for decision support in aviation meteorological forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 20 , 82–100.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Joint Planning and Development Office, 2008: Four dimensional weather functional requirements for NextGen air traffic management. JPDO Rep. 08-005, 180 pp. [Available online at http://www.jpdo.gov/library/4D_Weather_Funt_Reqs_V6_CSv2-2.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu M. , and Baker W. E. , 1990: Global numerical weather prediction at the National Meteorological Center. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71 , 1410–1428.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., Lord S. J. , and McPherson R. , 1998: Maturity of operational numerical weather prediction: Medium range. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 2753–2769.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kelly, D. S., and Ghirardelli J. E. , 1998: A general overview of methodology and applications of the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP), a short-range forecast guidance product. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 437–439.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kitzmiller, D. H., Samplatsky F. G. , and Keller D. L. , 2002: Production of a national radar reflectivity mosaic and automated radar observations from WSR-88D radar coded messages. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS MDL 83, 23 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leyton, S. M., and Fritsch J. M. , 2003: Short-term forecasts of ceiling and visibility utilizing high-density surface weather observations. Wea. Forecasting, 18 , 891–902.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lund, I. A., 1955: Estimating the probability of a future event from dichotomously classified predictors. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 36 , 325–328.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Miller, R. G., 1981: GEM: A statistical weather forecasting procedure. NOAA Tech Rep. NWS 28, 89 pp.

  • National Weather Service, 2008: Terminal aerodrome forecasts. NWS Instruction 10-813, 60 pp.

  • National Weather Service, 2009: Verification procedures. NWS Instruction 10-1601, 83 pp.

  • Newell, J. E., and Deaven D. G. , 1981: The LFM-II model—1980. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC-66, 20 pp.

  • Oberfield, M. G., Peroutka M. R. , and Abelman C. , 2008: Using probabilistic forecast guidance and an update technique to generate terminal aerodrome forecasts. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5.4. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/128927.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • OFCM, 1995: Surface weather observations and reports. Federal Meteorological Handbook 1, NOAA/Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, 104 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Olson, D. A., Junker N. W. , and Korty B. , 1995: Evaluation of 33 years of quantitative precipitation forecasting at the NMC. Wea. Forecasting, 10 , 498–511.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Peroutka, M. R., Graf M. , Oberfield M. G. , Trojan G. , and Li B. , 2004: The Aviation Forecast Preparation System of the National Weather Service. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P3.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/81312.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rudack, D. E., 2005: Improvements in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) categorical visibility and obstruction to vision statistical guidance. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.52. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/95050.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rudack, D. E., 2009: Aviation weather observations vs. LAMP forecasts with the onset of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90 , 929–938.

  • Schmeits, M. J., Kok K. J. , Vogelezang D. H. P. , and van Westrhenen R. M. , 2008: Probabilistic forecasts of (severe) thunderstorms for the purpose of issuing a weather alarm in the Netherlands. Wea. Forecasting, 23 , 1253–1267.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Souders, C. G., Abelman S. , Miner C. , Showalter R. C. , Tauss J. , Dash E. R. , and May J. , 2009: NextGen weather requirements. Preprints, Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symp. on Weather–Air Traffic Management Integration, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.1. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/149141.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thomasell A. Jr., , and Welsh J. G. , 1962: Objective analysis of sea level pressure and surface temperature, dewpoint and wind. Tech. Publ. 19, Contract FAA/BRD-363, The Travelers Research Center, Inc., Hartford, CT, 87 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Unger, D. A., 1982: The sea level pressure prediction model of the Local AFOS MOS Program. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS TDL 70, 33 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pubs/Documents/TechMemo/TechMemo70.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Unger, D. A., 1985: The moisture model for the Local AFOS MOS Program. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS TDL 77, 41 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pubs/Documents/TechMemo/TechMemo77.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Unger, D. A., 1987: Updated MOS ceiling height and visibility forecasts from the Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP). Preprints, 10th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Edmonton, AB, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 18–25.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Unger, D. A., Wolf W. L. , Chambers T. L. , and Cammarata M. W. , 1989: The Local AFOS MOS Program: Current status and plans. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 114–119.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Weiss, M., and Ghirardelli J. E. , 2005: A summary of ceiling height and total sky cover short-term statistical forecasts in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.6. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/95121.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wiedenfeld, J. R., 2005: Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP): Statistical guidance of wind speed, direction, and gusts for aviation weather. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.48. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/95030.pdf].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.

  • Younkin, R. J., LaRue J. A. , and Sanders F. , 1965: The objective prediction of clouds and precipitation using vertically integrated moisture and adiabatic vertical motions. J. Appl. Meteor., 4 , 3–17.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zurndorfer, E. A., Bocchieri J. R. , Carter G. M. , Dallavalle J. P. , Gilhousen D. B. , Hebenstreit K. F. , and Vercelli D. J. , 1979: Trends in comparative verification scores for guidance and local aviation/public weather forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107 , 799–811.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 935 275 47
PDF Downloads 569 97 1