Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Potential for Seasonal Forecasting of Winter Wave Heights in the Northern North Sea

Andrew W. Colman Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Erika J. Palin Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Michael G. Sanderson Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Robert T. Harrison Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Ian M. Leggett Shell Exploration and Production in Europe, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

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Print Publication:
01 Dec 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00017.1
Page(s):
1067–1074
Restricted access

Abstract

The height of waves at North Sea oil and gas installations is an important factor governing the degree to which operational activities may be undertaken at those facilities. A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter (defined as December–February) wave heights at North Sea oil and gas installations has been established. A tool has been developed that uses a forecast NAO index to predict the proportions of wave heights in four categories that could be used to assess the operational downtime that will be experienced in the coming winter. The wave height forecasting system is shown to have useful skill in predicting the probability of occurrence of a stormy winter, and therefore probability forecasts provide a potentially useful guide to whether more or less disruption than the “climatological mean” might be experienced. The main limit on the skill of the wave forecasts is our very limited ability to accurately predict the NAO index on seasonal time scales.

Current affiliation: OceanExpert Ltd., East Lothian, United Kingdom.

Corresponding author address: Michael G. Sanderson, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom. E-mail: michael.sanderson@metoffice.gov.uk

Abstract

The height of waves at North Sea oil and gas installations is an important factor governing the degree to which operational activities may be undertaken at those facilities. A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter (defined as December–February) wave heights at North Sea oil and gas installations has been established. A tool has been developed that uses a forecast NAO index to predict the proportions of wave heights in four categories that could be used to assess the operational downtime that will be experienced in the coming winter. The wave height forecasting system is shown to have useful skill in predicting the probability of occurrence of a stormy winter, and therefore probability forecasts provide a potentially useful guide to whether more or less disruption than the “climatological mean” might be experienced. The main limit on the skill of the wave forecasts is our very limited ability to accurately predict the NAO index on seasonal time scales.

Current affiliation: OceanExpert Ltd., East Lothian, United Kingdom.

Corresponding author address: Michael G. Sanderson, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom. E-mail: michael.sanderson@metoffice.gov.uk
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