• Avissar, R., and Pielke R. A. , 1989: A parameterization of heterogeneous land surfaces for atmospheric numerical models and its impact on regional meteorology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 21132136.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baldwin, M. E., Lakshmivarahan S. , and Kain J. S. , 2001: Verification of mesoscale features in NWP models. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 255–258.

  • Branstator, G., 1986: The variability in skill of 72-hour global-scale NMC forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 26282639.

  • Burridge, D. M., and Haseler J. , 1977: A model for medium range weather forecasts—Adiabatic formulation. ECMWF Tech. Rep. 4, 46 pp.

  • Casati, B., and Coauthors, 2008: Forecast verification: Current status and future directions. Meteor. Appl., 15, 318.

  • Cassou, C., Terray L. , Hurrell J. W. , and Deser C. , 2004: North Atlantic winter climate regimes: Spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time, and oceanic forcing. J. Climate, 17, 10551068.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cuxart, J., Bougeault P. , and Redelsberger J.-L. , 2000: A turbulence scheme allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eerola, K., 2005: Implementing the ATOVS AMSU-A data into the HIRLAM reference system. HIRLAM Newsletter, No. 49, 76–88 pp. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications.]

  • Eerola, K., Salmond D. , Gustafsson N. , Garcia-Moya J. A. , Lönnberg P. , and Järvenoja S. , 1998: A parallel version of the HIRLAM forecast model: Strategy and results. Making Its Mark: Proceedings of the Seventh ECMWF Workshop on the Use of Parallel Processors in Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom, World Scientific, 135–143.

  • Elmore, K. L., Baldwin M. E. , and Schultz D. M. , 2006a: Field significance revisited: Spatial bias errors in forecasts as applied to the Eta Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 519531.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elmore, K. L., Schultz D. M. , and Baldwin M. E. , 2006b: The behavior of synoptic-scale errors in the Eta Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 33553366.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gollvik, S. and Samuelsson P. , cited 2010: A tiled land-surface scheme for HIRLAM. [Available online at http://hirlam.org.]

  • Gustafsson, N., Berre L. , Hörnquist S. , Huang X.-Y. , Lindskog M. , Navascués B. , Mogensen K. S. , and Thorsteinsson S. , 2001: Three-dimensional variational data assimilation for a limited area model. Part I: General formulation and the background error constraint. Tellus, 53A, 425446.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gustafsson, N., Huang X.-Y. , Yang X. , Mogensen K. , Lindskog M. , Vignes O. , Wilhelmsson T. , and Thorsteinsson S. , 2012: Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for a limited area model. Tellus, 64A, 14985, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.14985.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, X.-Y., and Lynch P. , 1993: Diabatic digital-filtering initialization: Application to the HIRLAM model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 589603.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, X.-Y., Mogensen K. , and Yang X. , 2002: First-guess at the appropriate time: The HIRLAM implementation and experiments. Workshop on Variational Data Assimilation and Remote Sensing, Helsinki, Finland, HIRLAM–Finnish Meteorological Institute, 28–43. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications/HLworkshops/HL06/VarFMIJan02/index.html.]

  • Hurrell, J. W., and Deser C. , 2009: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Mar. Syst., 78, 2841.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Järvenoja, S., 2004: Towards the operational RCR system—Results from pre-operational test runs. HIRLAM Newsletter, No. 45, 48–62. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications.]

  • Jolliffe, I. T., and Stephenson D. B. , 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley and Sons, 240 pp.

  • Jung, T., 2005: Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 10451073.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kain, J. S., and Fritsch J. M. , 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain–Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165–170.

  • Lindskog, M., and Coauthors, 2001: Three-dimensional variational data assimilation for a limited area model. Part II: Observation handling and assimilation experiments. Tellus, 53A, 447468.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lorenc, A. C., 1981: A global three-dimensional multivariate statistical interpolation scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 701721.

  • Lynch, P., 1997: The Dolph–Chebyshev window: A simple optimal filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 655660.

  • Lynch, P., and Huang X.-Y. , 1992: Initialization of the HIRLAM model using a digital filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 10191034.

  • Lynch, P., and Huang X.-Y. , 1994: Diabatic initialization using recursive filters. Tellus, 46A, 583597.

  • Machenhauer, B., 1977: On the dynamics of gravity oscillations in a shallow water model, with applications to normal mode initialization. Contrib. Atmos. Phys., 50, 253271.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McDonald, A., and Haugen J. E. , 1992: A two-time-level, three-dimensional semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit, limited-area gridpoint model of the primitive equations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 26032621.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McDonald, A., and Haugen J. E. , 1993: A two time-level, three-dimensional, semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit, limited-area gridpoint model of the primitive equations. Part II: Extension to hybrid vertical coordinates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 20772087.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mironov, D., Heise E. , Kourzeneva E. , Ritter B. , Schneider N. , and Terzhevik A. , 2010: Implementation of the lake parameterisation scheme FLake into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO. Boreal Environ. Res., 15, 218230.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Noilhan, J., and Planton S. , 1989: A simple parameterization of land surface processes for meteorological models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 536549.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Noilhan, J., and Mahfouf J.-F. , 1996: The ISBA land surface parameterisation scheme. Global Planet. Change, 13, 145159.

  • Palmer, T. N., 1988: Medium and extended range predictability and stability of the Pacific/North American mode. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 691713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rasch, P. J., and Kristjánsson J. E. , 1998: A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameterizations. J. Climate, 11, 15871614.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sass, B. H., and Nielsen N. W. , 2004: Modelling of the HIRLAM surface stress direction. HIRLAM Newsletter, No. 45, 105–112. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications.]

  • Savijärvi, H., 1990: Fast radiation parameterization schemes for mesoscale and short-range forecast models. J. Appl. Meteor., 29, 437447.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schyberg, H., and Coauthors, 2003: Assimilation of ATOVS data in the HIRLAM 3D-VAR system. HIRLAM Tech. Rep. 60, 69 pp. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications.]

  • Simmons, A. J., and Hollingsworth A. , 2002: Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 647677.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tiedtke, M., Geleyn J.-F. , Hollingsworth A. , and Louis J.-F. , 1979: ECMWF model parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes. ECMWF Tech. Rep. 10, 146 pp.

  • Tijm, A. B. C., and Lenderink G. , 2003: Characteristics of CBR and STRACO versions. HIRLAM Newsletter, No. 43, 115–124. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications.]

  • Undén, P., and Coauthors, 2002: HIRLAM-5 Scientific Documentation. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 144 pp. [Available online at http://hirlam.org.]

  • Wilson, C., and Mittermaier M. , 2011: The SRNWP-V project: A comparison of regional European forecast models. European Conf. on Applications of Meteorology, Berlin, Germany, European Meteor. Soc., EMS2011–239. [Available online at http://presentations.copernicus.org/EMS2011-239_presentation.pdf.]

  • Yang, X., 2005: Background blending using an incremental spatial filter. HIRLAM Newsletter, No. 49, 3–11. [Available online at http://hirlam.org/publications.]

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 6 6 6
PDF Downloads 5 5 5

Twenty-One Years of Verification from the HIRLAM NWP System

View More View Less
  • 1 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Restricted access

Abstract

The High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) international research program maintains a synoptic-scale NWP system. At the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the HIRLAM system has been run operationally since 1990. The HIRLAM forecasts from 1990 to 2012 have been verified against the numerical analysis. In 2-day forecasts, the monthly rms error of the mean sea level pressure has decreased from about 4 to about 2 hPa; that is, the error is now about half of the value it was in the early 1990s. Similar reduction is seen in the 500-hPa height. The negative bias has decreased significantly. In addition, the dependence on the weather regime, measured as the correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and rms error, has decreased. The reason for these improvements can often be attributed to changes in the HIRLAM system. A single improvement, improving most significantly the forecast skill, is the rerun concept, which improves the HIRLAM first guess by utilizing the high-quality ECMWF analysis. Verifying against observations or against the initial analysis gives similar results for a 48-h forecast. For a 6-h forecast, however, the field verification gives lower rms error values and lower bias values. In summary, the results indicate that the goal of the HIRLAM program has been fulfilled: to develop and maintain an up-to-date NWP system for 1- and 2-day forecasts on a limited domain.

Corresponding author address: Kalle Eerola, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin Aukio 1, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland. E-mail: kalle.eerola@fmi.fi

Abstract

The High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) international research program maintains a synoptic-scale NWP system. At the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the HIRLAM system has been run operationally since 1990. The HIRLAM forecasts from 1990 to 2012 have been verified against the numerical analysis. In 2-day forecasts, the monthly rms error of the mean sea level pressure has decreased from about 4 to about 2 hPa; that is, the error is now about half of the value it was in the early 1990s. Similar reduction is seen in the 500-hPa height. The negative bias has decreased significantly. In addition, the dependence on the weather regime, measured as the correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and rms error, has decreased. The reason for these improvements can often be attributed to changes in the HIRLAM system. A single improvement, improving most significantly the forecast skill, is the rerun concept, which improves the HIRLAM first guess by utilizing the high-quality ECMWF analysis. Verifying against observations or against the initial analysis gives similar results for a 48-h forecast. For a 6-h forecast, however, the field verification gives lower rms error values and lower bias values. In summary, the results indicate that the goal of the HIRLAM program has been fulfilled: to develop and maintain an up-to-date NWP system for 1- and 2-day forecasts on a limited domain.

Corresponding author address: Kalle Eerola, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin Aukio 1, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland. E-mail: kalle.eerola@fmi.fi
Save