Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Trajectory Approach to Analyzing the Ingredients Associated with Heavy Winter Storms in Central North Carolina

Christopher M. Fuhrmann Southeast Regional Climate Center, Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Search for other papers by Christopher M. Fuhrmann in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
Charles E. Konrad II Southeast Regional Climate Center, Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Search for other papers by Charles E. Konrad II in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Jun 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00079.1
Page(s):
647–667
Restricted access

Abstract

Winter storms, namely snowstorms and ice storms, are a major hazard and forecasting challenge across central North Carolina. This study employed a trajectory approach to analyze the ingredients (i.e., temperature, moisture, and lift) associated with heavy snowstorms and ice storms that occurred within the Raleigh, North Carolina, National Weather Service forecast region from 2000 to 2010. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) tool was used to calculate 72-h backward (i.e., upstream) air parcel trajectories from three critical vertical pressure levels at the time and location of heaviest precipitation for each storm. Analysis of composite trajectories revealed the source regions and meteorological properties of air parcels associated with heavy winter storms. Adiabatic and diabatic contributions to air parcel temperature and moisture content were also estimated along each trajectory to assess the physical processes connected with heavy winter precipitation in the region. Results indicate that diabatic warming and cooling contribute significantly to the vertical temperature profile during heavy winter storms and therefore dictate the resulting precipitation type. The main source of diabatic warming is fluxes of sensible and latent heat within the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the Gulf Stream. These fluxes contribute to a warming and moistening of air parcels associated with heavy ice storms. In contrast, heavy snowstorms are characterized by diabatic cooling in the lower troposphere above the marine atmospheric boundary layer. The most significant moisture source for heavy snowfall is the Caribbean Sea, while heavy ice storms entrain moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream region near the Carolina coast.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Dept. of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220. E-mail: fuhrmann@unc.edu

Abstract

Winter storms, namely snowstorms and ice storms, are a major hazard and forecasting challenge across central North Carolina. This study employed a trajectory approach to analyze the ingredients (i.e., temperature, moisture, and lift) associated with heavy snowstorms and ice storms that occurred within the Raleigh, North Carolina, National Weather Service forecast region from 2000 to 2010. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) tool was used to calculate 72-h backward (i.e., upstream) air parcel trajectories from three critical vertical pressure levels at the time and location of heaviest precipitation for each storm. Analysis of composite trajectories revealed the source regions and meteorological properties of air parcels associated with heavy winter storms. Adiabatic and diabatic contributions to air parcel temperature and moisture content were also estimated along each trajectory to assess the physical processes connected with heavy winter precipitation in the region. Results indicate that diabatic warming and cooling contribute significantly to the vertical temperature profile during heavy winter storms and therefore dictate the resulting precipitation type. The main source of diabatic warming is fluxes of sensible and latent heat within the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the Gulf Stream. These fluxes contribute to a warming and moistening of air parcels associated with heavy ice storms. In contrast, heavy snowstorms are characterized by diabatic cooling in the lower troposphere above the marine atmospheric boundary layer. The most significant moisture source for heavy snowfall is the Caribbean Sea, while heavy ice storms entrain moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream region near the Carolina coast.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Dept. of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220. E-mail: fuhrmann@unc.edu
Save
Cover Weather and Forecasting
Weather and Forecasting

  • Auer, A. H., and White J. M. , 1982: The combined role of kinematics, thermodynamics, and cloud physics associated with heavy snowfall episodes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 500–507.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bane, J. M., Jr., and Osgood K. E. , 1989: Wintertime air–sea interaction processes across the Gulf Stream. J. Geophys. Res., 94 (C8), 10 755–10 772.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bell, G. D., and Bosart L. F. , 1988: Appalachian cold-air damming. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 137–161.

  • Black, T. L., 1994: The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 265–278.

  • Brennan, M. J., and Lackmann G. M. , 2005: The influence of incipient latent heat release on the precipitation distribution of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. East Coast cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1913–1937.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Buzzia, R., and Chessa P. , 2002: Prediction of the U.S. storm of 24–25 January 2000 with the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1531–1551.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Draxler, R. R., 2003: Evaluation of an ensemble dispersion calculation. J. Appl. Meteor., 42, 308–317.

  • Draxler, R. R., and Rolph G. D. , cited 2011: HYSPLIT-Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. [Available online at http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php.]

  • Field, G. A., and Stewart J. D. , 1994: Evaluation of an unusual winter weather non-occurrence in North Carolina on 24 January 1991. Natl. Wea. Dig., 19 (1), 2–13.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fritsch, J. M., and Coauthors, 1998: Quantitative precipitation forecasts: Report of the Eighth Prospectus Development Team, U.S. Weather Research Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 285–299.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fuhrmann, C. M., 2011: A trajectory approach to analyzing the ingredients associated with heavy winter storms in central North Carolina. Ph.D. dissertation, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 239 pp.

  • Fuhrmann, C. M., Connolly R. P. , and Konrad C. E. , 2009: Winter storms: An overlooked source of death, destruction, and inconvenience in the Carolina Piedmont region. Proc. 66th Eastern Snow Conf., Niagra-on-the-Lake, ON, Canada, ESC, 45–58.

  • Gyakum, J. R., and Roebber P. J. , 2001: The 1998 ice storm—Analysis of a planetary-scale event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2983–2997.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hondula, D. M., and Coauthors, 2009: A back-trajectory and air mass climatology for the northern Shenandoah Valley, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 569–581.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • James, P., Stohl A. , Spichtinger N. , Eckhardt S. , and Foster C. , 2004: Climatological aspects of the extreme European rainfall of August 2002 and a trajectory method for estimating the associated evaporative source regions. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 733–746.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kain, J. S., Goss S. M. , and Baldwin M. E. , 2000: The melting effect as a factor in precipitation-type forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 700–714.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Keeter, K. K., Businger S. , and Lee L. G. , 1993: Patterns of winter precipitation types across North Carolina. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Vienna, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 528-532.

  • Keeter, K. K., Businger S. , Lee L. G. , and Waldstreicher J. S. , 1995: Winter weather forecasting throughout the eastern United States. Part III: The effects of topography and the variability of winter weather in the Carolinas and Virginia. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 42–60.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kocin, P. J., and Uccellini L. W. , 2004: Northeast Snowstorms. Vol. 1, Meteor. Monogr., No. 54, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 296 pp.

  • Lackmann, G. M., 2006: Improving cold-season quantitative precipitation forecasting in the southeastern United States. Final report on the proposal to NOAA in support of the Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research Program (CSTAR), 18 pp. [Available online at http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/resupdates/Revised_NCSU_CSTAR_II_Final_Report.pdf.]

  • Lackmann, G. M., Keeter K. K. , Lee L. G. , and Ek M. B. , 2002: Model representation of freezing and melting precipitation: Implications for winter weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1016–1033.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Market, P. S., Przybylinski R. W. , and Rochette S. M. , 2006: The role of sublimational cooling in a late-season Midwestern snow event. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 364–382.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Moore, J. T., Ng S. , and Graves C. E. , 2005: The role of conveyor belts in organizing processes associated with heavy banded snowfall. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10A.1. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94644.htm.]

  • Perry, L. B., 2006: Synoptic climatology of northwest flow snowfall in the southern Appalachians. Ph.D. dissertation, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 192 pp.

  • Richwien, B. A., 1980: The damming effect of the southern Appalachians. Natl. Wea. Dig., 5 (1), 2–12.

  • Robbins, C. C., and Cortinas J. V. , 2002: Local and synoptic environments associated with freezing rain in the contiguous United States. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 47–65.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Roberge, A., Gyakum J. , and Atallah E. , 2009: Analysis of poleward water vapor transport into high latitudes of western North America. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1732–1747.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rogers, E., and Coauthors, 2009: The NCEP North American mesoscale modeling system: Recent changes and future plans. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2A.4. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154114.pdf.]

  • Ryerson, C. C., and Ramsay A. C. , 2007: Quantitative ice accretion information from the Automated Surface Observing System. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 1423–1437.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schultz, D. M., 2001: Reexamining the cold conveyor belt. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2205–2225.

  • Stewart, R. E., 1992: Precipitation types in the transition region of winter storms. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 287–296.

  • Stohl, A., 1998: Computation, accuracy and applications of trajectories—A review and bibliography. Atmos. Environ., 32, 947–966.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Waldstreicher, J. S., 2005: Assessing the impact of collaborative research projects on NWS warning performance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 193–203.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 951 386 45
PDF Downloads 309 70 6