Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Forecasting the New York City Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze during Extreme Heat Events

Talmor Meir Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey

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Philip M. Orton Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey

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Julie Pullen Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey

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Teddy Holt Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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William T. Thompson Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

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Mark F. Arend CUNY CREST Institute, City College of the City University of New York, New York, New York

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Print Publication:
01 Dec 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00012.1
Page(s):
1460–1477
Restricted access

Abstract

Two extreme heat events impacting the New York City (NYC), New York, metropolitan region during 7–10 June and 21–24 July 2011 are examined in detail using a combination of models and observations. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) produces real-time forecasts across the region on a 1-km resolution grid and employs an urban canopy parameterization to account for the influence of the city on the atmosphere. Forecasts from the National Weather Service's 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are also examined. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using a land- and coastline-based observation network. Observed temperatures reached 39°C or more at central urban sites over several days and remained high overnight due to urban heat island (UHI) effects, with a typical nighttime urban–rural temperature difference of 4°–5°C. Examining model performance broadly over both heat events and 27 sites, COAMPS has temperature RMS errors averaging 1.9°C, while NAM has RMSEs of 2.5°C. COAMPS high-resolution wind and temperature predictions captured key features of the observations. For example, during the early summer June heat event, the Long Island south shore coastline experienced a more pronounced sea breeze than was observed for the July heat wave.

Corresponding author address: Talmor Meir, Stevens Institute of Technology, Ocean Engineering, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5991. E-mail: tmeir@stevens.edu

Abstract

Two extreme heat events impacting the New York City (NYC), New York, metropolitan region during 7–10 June and 21–24 July 2011 are examined in detail using a combination of models and observations. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) produces real-time forecasts across the region on a 1-km resolution grid and employs an urban canopy parameterization to account for the influence of the city on the atmosphere. Forecasts from the National Weather Service's 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are also examined. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using a land- and coastline-based observation network. Observed temperatures reached 39°C or more at central urban sites over several days and remained high overnight due to urban heat island (UHI) effects, with a typical nighttime urban–rural temperature difference of 4°–5°C. Examining model performance broadly over both heat events and 27 sites, COAMPS has temperature RMS errors averaging 1.9°C, while NAM has RMSEs of 2.5°C. COAMPS high-resolution wind and temperature predictions captured key features of the observations. For example, during the early summer June heat event, the Long Island south shore coastline experienced a more pronounced sea breeze than was observed for the July heat wave.

Corresponding author address: Talmor Meir, Stevens Institute of Technology, Ocean Engineering, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5991. E-mail: tmeir@stevens.edu
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