• Bornstein, R. D., 1968: Observations of the urban heat island effect in New York City. J. Appl. Meteor., 7, 575582.

  • Brown, M. J., , and Williams M. , 1998: An urban canopy parameterization for mesoscale meteorology models. Preprints, Second Symp. on the Urban Environment, Alburquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 144–147.

  • Burian, S. J., , McKinnon A. , , Hartman J. , , and Han W. , 2005: National building statistics database: New York City. Los Alamos National Laboratory Final Rep. LA-UR-058154, 17 pp.

  • Chelton, D., , and Xie S. P. , 2010: Coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction at oceanic mesoscales. Oceanography, 23 (4), 5269.

  • Chen, F., , and Dudhia J. , 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling system. Part II: Preliminary model validation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 587604.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chin, H.-N. S., , Leach M. J. , , Sugiyama G. A. , , Leone J. M. Jr., , Walker H. , , Nasstrom J. S. , , and Brown M. J. , 2005: Evaluation of an urban canopy parameterization in a mesoscale model using VTMX and URBAN 200 data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 20432068.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohan, D. S., , Hu Y. , , and Russell A. G. , 2006: Dependence of ozone sensitivity analysis on grid resolution. Atmos. Environ., 40, 126135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cummings, J. A., 2005: Operational multivariate ocean data assimilation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 35833604.

  • Ek, M., , Mitchell K. , , Lin Y. , , Rogers E. , , Grunmann P. , , Koren V. , , Gayno G. , , and Tarpley J. , 2003: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta Model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gedzelman, S. D., , Austin S. , , Cermak R. , , Stefano N. , , Patridge S. , , Quesenberry S. , , and Robinson D. A. , 2003: Mesoscale aspects of the urban heat island around New York City. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 75, 2942, doi:10.1007/s00704-002-0724-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grossman-Clarke, S., , Zehnder J. A. , , Loridan T. , , and Grimmond C. S. B. , 2010: Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix metropolitan area. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 16491664.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hodur, R. M., 1997: The Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 14141430.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holt, T., , and Pullen J. , 2007: Urban canopy modeling of the New York City metropolitan area: A comparison and validation of single- and multilayer parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 19061930.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Janjić, Z. I., , Gerrity J. P. Jr., , and Nickovic S. , 2001: An alternative approach to nonhydrostatic modeling. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 11641178.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Janjić, Z. I., , Black T. , , Pyle M. , , Rogers E. , , Chuang H. Y. , , and DiMego G. , 2005: High resolution applications of the WRF NMM. Proc. 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 16A.4. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/93724.pdf.]

  • Jimenez, P., , Lelieveld J. , , and Baldasano J. M. , 2006: Multiscale modeling of air pollutants dynamics in the northwestern Mediterranean basin during a typical summertime episode. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18306, doi:10.1029/2005JD006516.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., , Chen F. , , Warner T. , , and Basara J. , 2006: Verification of a mesoscale data-assimilation and forecasting system for the Oklahoma City area during the Joint Urban 2003 field project. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol, 45, 912929.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loughner, C., , Allen D. , , Pickering K. , , Zhang D. , , Shou Y. , , and Dickerson R. , 2011: Impact of fair-weather cumulus clouds and the Chesapeake Bay breeze on pollutant transport and transformation. Atmos. Environ., 45, 40604072.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mass, C. F., , Ovens D. , , Westrick K. , , and Colle B. A. , 2002: Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 407430.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Miller, S. T. K., , Keim B. D. , , Talbot R. W. , , and Mao H. , 2003: Sea breeze: Structure, forecasting, and impacts. Rev. Geophys., 41, 1011 , doi:10.1029/2003RG000124.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Academy of Sciences, 2012: Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative. The National Academies Press, 244 pp.

  • National Research Council, 2012: Urban Meteorology: Forecasting, Monitoring, and Meeting Users' Needs. The National Academies Press, 176 pp.

  • Novak, D., , and Colle B. A. , 2006: Observations of multiple sea-breeze boundaries during an unseasonably warm day in metropolitan New York City. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 169174.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oke, T. R., 2006: Initial guidance to obtain representative meteorological observations at urban sites. Instruments and Observing Methods Rep. 81, WMO/TD-1250, 47 pp.

  • Orton, P. M., , McGillis W. R. , , and Zappa C. J. , 2010: Sea breeze forcing of estuary turbulence and CO2 exchange. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13603, doi:10.1029/2010GL043159.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pullen, J., , Holt T. , , Blumberg A. , , and Bornstein R. , 2007: Atmospheric response to local upwelling in the vicinity of New York–New Jersey harbor. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol, 46, 10311052.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rosenfeld, A. H., and Coauthors, 1995: Mitigation of urban heat island: Materials, utility, programs, updates. Energy Build., 22, 255265.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rosenzweig, C., and Coauthors, 2009: Mitigating New York City's heat island: Integrating stakeholder perspectives and scientific evaluation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,90, 1297–1311.

  • Sailor, D., 2011: A review of methods for estimating anthropogenic heat and moisture emissions in the urban environment. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 189199, doi:10.1002/joc.2106.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tan, J., and Coauthors, 2009: The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai. Int. J. Biometeor., 54, 7584.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thompson, W., , Holt T. , , and Pullen J. , 2007: Investigation of a sea breeze front in an urban environment. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 579594.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhong, S., , and Takle E. S. , 1992: An observational study of sea- and-land breeze circulation in an area of complex coastal heating. J. Appl. Meteor., 31, 14261438.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 100 100 36
PDF Downloads 70 70 23

Forecasting the New York City Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze during Extreme Heat Events

View More View Less
  • 1 Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey
  • 2 Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
  • 3 CUNY CREST Institute, City College of the City University of New York, New York, New York
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Two extreme heat events impacting the New York City (NYC), New York, metropolitan region during 7–10 June and 21–24 July 2011 are examined in detail using a combination of models and observations. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) produces real-time forecasts across the region on a 1-km resolution grid and employs an urban canopy parameterization to account for the influence of the city on the atmosphere. Forecasts from the National Weather Service's 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are also examined. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using a land- and coastline-based observation network. Observed temperatures reached 39°C or more at central urban sites over several days and remained high overnight due to urban heat island (UHI) effects, with a typical nighttime urban–rural temperature difference of 4°–5°C. Examining model performance broadly over both heat events and 27 sites, COAMPS has temperature RMS errors averaging 1.9°C, while NAM has RMSEs of 2.5°C. COAMPS high-resolution wind and temperature predictions captured key features of the observations. For example, during the early summer June heat event, the Long Island south shore coastline experienced a more pronounced sea breeze than was observed for the July heat wave.

Corresponding author address: Talmor Meir, Stevens Institute of Technology, Ocean Engineering, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5991. E-mail: tmeir@stevens.edu

Abstract

Two extreme heat events impacting the New York City (NYC), New York, metropolitan region during 7–10 June and 21–24 July 2011 are examined in detail using a combination of models and observations. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) produces real-time forecasts across the region on a 1-km resolution grid and employs an urban canopy parameterization to account for the influence of the city on the atmosphere. Forecasts from the National Weather Service's 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are also examined. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using a land- and coastline-based observation network. Observed temperatures reached 39°C or more at central urban sites over several days and remained high overnight due to urban heat island (UHI) effects, with a typical nighttime urban–rural temperature difference of 4°–5°C. Examining model performance broadly over both heat events and 27 sites, COAMPS has temperature RMS errors averaging 1.9°C, while NAM has RMSEs of 2.5°C. COAMPS high-resolution wind and temperature predictions captured key features of the observations. For example, during the early summer June heat event, the Long Island south shore coastline experienced a more pronounced sea breeze than was observed for the July heat wave.

Corresponding author address: Talmor Meir, Stevens Institute of Technology, Ocean Engineering, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5991. E-mail: tmeir@stevens.edu
Save